Super Bowl Futures

[fiveteamer]

Cowboys +825 looks good. Who are you guys on?

[old threads]

Maybe throw some money on Colts about the same price and Saints +2000. Looking at some on Jags +1480 maybe.

[LT Profits]

I like the Chargers +750 myself. My article on this subject is up right now here on the NFL page.

Chargers to win Super Bowl and other NFL futures

[Tsoprano]

I would think the Pats want to come back with a vangeance this season, but a lot of good values posted so far.

[SBR Lou]

Take Pats,

Long shot value type
Take Cleveland Browns

Would be my suggestion. Yeah Pats have a long road back, but their regular season schedule is ranked lowest in terms of strength, they play in a crappy rebuilding division, and we all know they're gonna be like 13-3 etc and we'll wish then we had +370 on them.

[old threads]

LT how much of your bank roll do you play on futures? My start the last 3 years is with $5k for the whole season and last season I put $500 into some futures. That left me with about $250 to play with each week and used it with 4-5 $50 wagers.

I can not play the Chargers cause they burned me so much but I wish you luck.

[seaborneq]

Rams 5-1 to win their division looks mighty tempting.

[sickler]

Which book are you guys getting these lines from?

[SBR Lou]

Which book are you guys getting these lines from?

5dimes has good prices, even has Cowboys at +975.

[sickler]

5 Dimes, no thanks...

[PureGuava]

falcons at 150 to 1 and dolphins 100 to 1 at bodog

[SBR Lou]

5 Dimes, no thanks...

Nothing wrong with them.

[sickler]

falcons at 150 to 1 and dolphins 100 to 1 at bodog

Those odds might be acceptable to get into the playoffs but to win the super bowl??!!! Gotta give at least 500 to 1 for those two sadsacks.

[sickler]

Crazy, I'm in Canada. Still spoiled by Pinnacle.

[SBR Lou]

Crazy, I'm in Canada. Still spoiled by Pinnacle.

Ah, that explains it. Torn between flashing a or ..

[sickler]

Don't hold back, I know ya wanna flip the bird.

In case you're still torn, I like to rub it in by mentioning Pinny as often as possible.

[Marvelboy]

Ive taken the chargers @ + 750

But also over here in the UK there doing a special of the winner of the Wembley game to go on and win the Superbowl took the chargers at + 1200

[thegreatdiatchi]

Pittsburgh Steelers +2350 per the below futures is a great value imo. I look for these guys to be the playoff sleepers of 2008.

• New England Patriots +385
• San Diego Chargers +705
• Indianapolis Colts +785
• Jacksonville Jaguars +1415
• Dallas Cowboys +825
• New York Giants +2250
• Green Bay Packers +3550
• New Orleans Saints +2050
• Seattle Seahawks +3550
• Arizona Cardinals +3050
• San Francisco 49ers +5250
• Washington Redskins +5250
• Philadelphia Eagles +2050
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5250
• Carolina Panthers +5250
• Minnesota Vikings +2250
• Detroit Lions +5250
• Chicago Bears +3550
• Pittsburgh Steelers +2350
• Denver Broncos +4250
• Cleveland Browns +4250
• Cincinatti Bengals +4250
• Tennesee Titans +4250
• Baltimore Ravens +6550
• Buffalo Bills +4850
• Houston Texans +6550
• New York Jets +10550
• Miami Dolphins +14550
• Kansas City Chiefs +14550
• Oakland Raiders +12550
• St Louis Rams +6050
• Atlanta Falcons +16550

[capperwizzard]

Who likes the Jaguars this season?

[JT16]

Took the Vikings, Saints, and Eagles.

Vikings and Eagles were +3250 and the Saints were +2500.

No value in the AFC.

[the_orangekat]

Who likes the Jaguars this season?

I do, may make a trip or two down there to take in a couple games.

I think they got a decent shot to win the AFC...well, that is if Brady goes down with an injury.

[Chance Harper]

Betting NFL Futures: The time is now

Eli Manning and the New York Giants are sitting at 10/1 to successfully defend their Super Bowl title. Will Adam 'Previous Known As Pacman' Jones and the Dallas Cowboys spoil the Giants' repeat hopes?

The NFL betting season is officially underway. Futures are up for division and conference titles, the Super Bowl, and the over/under on regular-season wins for each team.

The speculative nature of these wagers increases the closer you get to the championship. It’s high-risk, high-reward stuff, but this is the right time to jump in. Training camps are a month away; baseball is still on the front page of the sports section, and the casual NFL bettor is not paying much attention right now.

The simplest strategy for betting the conference and Super Bowl futures is to narrow the field to teams with a reasonable chance of winning, then pick the one which is most undervalued in the market. The New England Patriots, for example, are the favorites to win the AFC at 3-2 and the Super Bowl at 5-2. They are not undervalued, not even after blowing last year’s perfect season by losing the championship to the New York Giants as 12½-point favorites.

The Giants, on the other hand, have some value at 4-1 to win the NFC and 10-1 to defend their title. This was one of the hottest teams in the latter stages of the 2007 season, going 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the spread from December onward. The development of QB Eli Manning and the team’s new 4-3 defense under first-year coordinator Steve Spagnuolo provided the championship fuel; Spagnuolo signed a three-year contract to stay with Big Blue, arguably a more important offseason news item than the retirement of DE Michael Strahan.

From a value perspective, however, the Giants don’t have much room for growth. They’ve already risen from 5-1 (NFC) and 12-1 (Super Bowl) at the open; only the Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 9-2) have shorter betting odds in their conference. Dallas has also risen from 3-1 and 6-1, in part because of the partial lifting of CB Adam (no longer Pacman) Jones’ suspension. Not a lot of value left there for America’s Team.

The only competitive team in the NFC to see its odds shrink is the Green Bay Packers. They slipped from 11-4 and 7-1 following the retirement of QB Brett Favre to 5-1 and 12-1. This is a better opportunity for a speculative wager, based on the potential of new starting QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s had three years under Favre’s wing, and his 20-for-28 performance last year in spot duty was very encouraging for Packers supporters.

In the AFC, last year’s top clubs are all crowding behind the Patriots at the top of the odds list:

Colts 3/1 - 6/1
Jaguars 5/1 - 10/1
Chargers 5/1 -10/1
Steelers 9/1 - 18/1

Any of these four would be a better value pick than New England, but the return on investment remains fairly low. Pittsburgh has the most value among this top tier of Super Bowl candidates; the Steelers were champions just two seasons ago, and the first year of the Mike Tomlin Era proved to be successful at 10-6 (8-8 ATS). The Steelers upgraded their running game by drafting Rashard Mendenhall in the first round, a wise move given the ineffectiveness of the Willie Parker-Najeh Davenport combo. Pittsburgh ranked 17th in the league in rushing efficiency last year.

None of the aforementioned teams would be as big a Super Bowl surprise as the 2007 Giants. For those looking to go deep, the AFC’s Cincinnati Bengals (18-1, 38-1) and the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles (18-1, 45-1) have the most to offer. They both underperformed last year according to “Estimated Wins” as compiled by Football Outsiders; the 7-9 Bengals had 8½ Estimated Wins, while the 8-8 Eagles had 9½.

Philadelphia looks especially tasty after a strong draft and the offseason acquisitions of CB Asante Samuel and RB Lorenzo Booker. The health of QB Donovan McNabb is always a concern, but at these odds, a small investment could reap huge profits.

[bigblue74]

Giants may repeat but I think the eagles are a good bet too.

[slacker00]

Took the Vikings, Saints, and Eagles.

Vikings and Eagles were +3250 and the Saints were +2500.

No value in the AFC.

That's great value on the Eagles @ +3250. Where'd you get that?

[SBR Lou]

That's great value on the Eagles @ +3250. Where'd you get that?

Great value indeed.

[Patrick McIrish]

Tampa +5250