Best bet: Colorado +6 over Grand Rapids
The last time these two teams played, Colorado won 63-28. What has changed? Not much - just the homefield.
On paper, the teams look equally bad. Colorado's defense allows 54 points per game (versus 49 offensive points). Grand Rapids allows 53 points per game (versus 45 offensive). In raw scoring differential, Colorado has the edge on averages.
Grand Rapids' average numbers are skewed though. They scored 92 and 72 versus Kansas City (#19 defense out of 19 teams) and 84 versus LA (#18 defense out of 19 teams). Incidentally, those were Grand Rapids' only 3 wins. In its other 10 games, it has lost by an average of 13 points.
Make no mistake - Colorado is not spectacular. They aren't even average. But Grand Rapids is just BAD. I make the fair line Colorado -1. When a line is off that much, it makes it my Free ATM withdrawal play of the week (which are 9-4 on the year).
The rest of my card...
Arizona +4.5. It's now +3, which is still fair - I make it Arizona -4.5. A possible best bet with KC starting a new QB.
New York/Orlando OV102.5. This was almost a best bet. I make it 109.5, due in part to a lot of Orlando defensive injuries.
Utah/LA Und124. Now 123, still good.
Ari/KC UND108 (now 107). New QBs score less.
But if you just want one, take Colorado +6.
The last time these two teams played, Colorado won 63-28. What has changed? Not much - just the homefield.
On paper, the teams look equally bad. Colorado's defense allows 54 points per game (versus 49 offensive points). Grand Rapids allows 53 points per game (versus 45 offensive). In raw scoring differential, Colorado has the edge on averages.
Grand Rapids' average numbers are skewed though. They scored 92 and 72 versus Kansas City (#19 defense out of 19 teams) and 84 versus LA (#18 defense out of 19 teams). Incidentally, those were Grand Rapids' only 3 wins. In its other 10 games, it has lost by an average of 13 points.
Make no mistake - Colorado is not spectacular. They aren't even average. But Grand Rapids is just BAD. I make the fair line Colorado -1. When a line is off that much, it makes it my Free ATM withdrawal play of the week (which are 9-4 on the year).
The rest of my card...
Arizona +4.5. It's now +3, which is still fair - I make it Arizona -4.5. A possible best bet with KC starting a new QB.
New York/Orlando OV102.5. This was almost a best bet. I make it 109.5, due in part to a lot of Orlando defensive injuries.
Utah/LA Und124. Now 123, still good.
Ari/KC UND108 (now 107). New QBs score less.
But if you just want one, take Colorado +6.