Best Bets Saturday 9/10

[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for Saturday?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[Senator7]

Marshall +10
VA Tech -19.5
Auburn -15
California -7.5
GA Tech -12
Navy +3
Nebraska -6
Air Force -7
TCU -14.5
Troy St. +10

Senator 7

[Razz]

Week 2 Sides

NCAA Football Overall (14-7-0, +4.90*)
NCAAF Sides (8-7-0, -4.10*)

6* Ohio State -1 vs. Texas
Jim Tressel has coached 7 times against teams in the Top 10. He has won 6 times. Mack Brown, on the other hand is winless in his last eight games against the Top 10. The Ohio St. D should be able to contain QB Young, and we think Texas will miss what they lost on defense from last year. Everyone is anticipating a classic battle that comes down to the final play, but we don‘t think it will be that close. If it is, the Buckeyes have a sizeable advantage on special teams, with the versatile Ginn always a threat. Texas missed three of first four Xps last week, and their kicker has never attempted a FG in college.
Prediction: OSU 27, Texas 14

6* Auburn -15 vs. Mississippi State
History lesson of the week is Auburn‘s dominance of Mississippi State. Despite only putting up 14 points against a very good Georgia Tech defense, Auburn‘s offense actually surprised us in its ability to move the ball. Brandon Cox passed for well over 300 yards, and if he eliminates the mistakes that doomed Auburn last week, this could turn ugly. Auburn‘s D still able to shutout a weak offensive team such as Miss St.
Prediction: Auburn 42, Miss St. 10

5* Air Force -8 vs. SD State
SD St. showed their inability to stop the run last week, and that’s bad news against someone like Air Force. When I made my lines at the start of the week, I had Air Force -14.5. When the line came out at 6 on betjamaica, I jumped all over it. Unfortunately, it is now up to 8, but is still a solid play.
Prediction: AFA 31, SD St. 13

5* Alabama -11.5 vs. Southern Mississippi
Great Bama D not giving up double digits this week. Alabama can do enough offensively to cover here, especially since QB Croyle is finally healthy. Tide have given up a total of 12 points in the last three meetings, and have covered 7 of last 8 in series. Expect more of the same.
Prediction: Alabama 27, So. Miss. 3

4* Georgia -17.5 vs. South Carolina
Georgia showed itself as the class of the SEC last week with a dominating performance. Look for HC Richt to run this up if given a chance, especially with the FSU/Florida ties from earlier in their careers.
Prediction: Georgia 45, South Carolina 17

4* Texas Tech -34 vs. Florida International
This should be another game where Texas Tech gets to pick the final score they want to win by. Mike Leach will leave his 5th yr. senior in the game long enough to pile up plenty o’ points.
Prediction: Texas Tech 63, Florida International 10.

3* Wyoming -18.5 vs. LA-Monroe
Monroe led 23-0 last week against rival Northwestern St. They collapsed and ended up losing 28-23. We look for them to be dispirited and get pounded by a Wyoming team that was 5-0 ATS last year at home. The Cowboys lost by a mere 18 points last week at Florida, and this week’s game will feel like it is in slow motion.
Prediction: Wyoming 41, LA-Monroe 14

3* SMU +15 vs. TCU
Letdown alert. SMU’s offense in their second game should be more successful than Oklahoma’s in their opener. TCU’s defense is stout, but we think SMU keeps it under the number.
Prediction: TCU 20, SMU 14

3* Toledo -21.5 vs. Western Michigan
Toledo is on 13-2 ATS run at home. Senior QB Gradkowski is one of the most productive QBs in all the land. In recent games versus Western Michigan, Toledo has averaged over 200 more rushing yards than the Broncos.
Prediction: Toledo 49, Western Michigan 14

2* Wake Forest +6.5 @ Nebraska
Wake may have faced a better team last week in Vandy than they are looking at this week in Nebraska. The only offensive star in this game is Wake RB Barclay, who missed last week‘s loss. We look for Wake‘s creative offense to get enough done to upset the boring Nebraska attack, which managed 7 points in first half versus Maine last week. Wake is 10-5-1 ATS as road dog under HC Grobe, including 6 outright upsets.
Prediction: Wake Forest 17, Nebraska 10

2* Michigan State -32 vs. Hawaii
Huge revenge call here. This line has already gone up 8.5 points from when it opened at 24, and with good reason. Michigan St. was furious after last year’s game, which saw them jump out to a 21-0 lead. The officials in Hawaii started making phantom calls against the Spartans, 16 in all, eventually leading to the Hawaii win. Hawaii has been one of the worst road teams ATS the past couple years, and they lost QB-WR combination of Chang-Owens. Michigan St. may be covering by the half, and will not hesitate to run the score up.
Prediction: Michigan St. 70, Hawaii 17

2* Rice +24.5 @ UCLA
We expect this one to stay well within the generous number, as UCLA is overvalued after last week's impressive performance against hapless SD St. Rice has historically been a solid underdog.
Prediction: UCLA 27, Rice 20

2* Florida Atl +14 vs. Oklahoma State (Thursday)
The word out of Stillwater is that the inexperienced Cowboy quarterbacks are unable to grasp the offensive system. Florida Atlantic should be inspired, as coach Schnellenberger will have his team believing they have a chance to win the game against a Big 12 opponent. We believe him.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 24, Florida Atlantic 20.

2* Missouri -9.5 vs. New Mexico
New Mexico looked confused as a 15-point favorite last week at home. They managed to win, but won’t be so lucky this week. QB Smith is an experienced leader and should lead the explosive Tiger offense to an easy victory.
Prediction: Missouri 34, New Mexico 14

NCAAF Totals (6-0-0, +9.00*) will be posted by Thursday night.

[moses millsap]

10* Ohio State -1

[bigpig19]

Razz and I are good friends, but never discussed the plays for this week
but we both have a lot of the same sides. This week i have a consensus
partner who is going to be with me the rest of the season. I lost 7.9 stars
last week, so he is starting in a rut to begin with, but here we go

6* selecion

Toledo -21'
Playing at home against a porous Western Michigan team who luckily
only lost by 11 to Virginia last week spells trouble for the Broncos.
Leading 24-3 in the first half, Virginia let off the gas and let WMU
back in the game. The difference this week is obviously the opponent,
which is a team that is not afraid to run the score up as they showed
by beating W. Illinois 62-14. Even though Gradkowski was taken out with
a 41-0 halftime lead, the scrubs still managed to defeat the Leathernecks
19-14 in the second half. Look for Gradkowski to play longer and the
score to be about the same.

Trends and Angles: The Broncos are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS vs. Toledo since 1990
Toledo is 14-4-2 ATS last 20 games after SU win, and Amstutz is 12-0 SU
all-time vs. Michigan school (W,C,E) and 7-1-1 ATS last three years

Toledo 56 W. Mich 17


5* selection

Alabama -11'
11' is a small number here as Alabama has covered 7 of the
last 8 against So. Miss including a 27-3 drumming last year, as Tide
running back Ken Darby outgained So. Miss by himslelf. Look for much
of the same here as the Tide should be able to run up and down the
field on the Eagles, while a stingy defense gives up less than a touchdown.

Trends and Angles: Other than the afore mentioned 1-7 ATS mark against the
Tide, the Eagles are 4-10 ATS V. Non-Conference opponents

Alabama 31 So Miss 6



4* selection

Air Force -7'
Look for Air Force to pound the ball all over the field and
maybe even mix the pass in as they have gotten better at this year.
I was shocked to see the line so low as it opened at 5'. Comming off
of an underdog win pretty much at Washington as the game was being held in Seattle,
the Fly boys are just that, "flying High". SDSU gave up 191 rushing yards
on 35 carries against UCLA last week with the starting running back
Maurice Drew gaining an amazing 10.4 yards per rush in a 44-21 loss.
To add insult to injury, UCLA started 7 freshman. AFA should have plenty
of room to run the ball as they gianed a whopping 218 yards rushing
last week. And oh yea, that passing attack I mentioned, a dual QB system
that combined for 13 of 22 completions for 207 yards, 1 TD and no int.
AFA will control the ball, the clock, and the game. The Falcons fly
here.

Trend and Angles: Aztecs 0-12 SU and 4-8 ATS in last 12 road openers,
and they are 3-9 ATS in this series

AFA 30 SDSU 13


4* selection

Auburn -15
15 is a low number here as Auburn gets a little line value for
looking so bad last week, but the Tigers should get back on track here
with a win. Auburn has owned this rivalry between SEC foes beating them
senseless the past three years covering them all including wins of 28,29,
and 32 in those years respectively. After losing 23-14 in their opener
against Ga. Tech look for Auburn to come out and look refocused as
Brandon Cox should have a field day if he can keep it out of the
defenders hands, and I think he will. Playing a weaker defense than the
one they faced last week should open up some running lanes allowing the
Tigers to do whatever they want whether it be on the ground or in the air.
A talented receiver core and good defense spell a nice, large win for
the Tigers.

Trends and angles: Auburn is 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in SEC openers
since '93, and the favorite is 10-3 ATS in this series. MSU has lost their
last 5 SEC openers both SU and ATS, and they are 4-8 ATS in this series.

Auburn 38 Miss St. 10


3* Selection

Wyoming -20'
Wyoming is playing at home against a terrible UL-Monroe team that lost last week to
Norwestern St, yes I said Northwestern St 27-23, a game in which Monroe was even in turnover battle, won T.O.P, yardage, and penalties. I dont really know what to tell you other than Wyoming will mop the floor with this rag bunch.

Trends and angles Wyoming is 10-5 ATS after a SU loss, and the home team is 2-0 ATS in this series.

Wyoming 48 UL-Monroe 13



2* Selection

SMU +14'
TCU is in a sandwich game here as they come off of a big win
against Oklahoma, and Utah is lurking ahead. TCU should be flat playing a
SMU team that returns 18 starters. TCU wins the game, but as Corso puts it
"it will be closer than the experts think."

Trend and Angles- TCU is 0-9-1 ATS last 10 on artificial turf

TCU 27 SMU 21


some totals may be posted thursday afternoon as well as NFL

[Razz]

NCAAF Totals (6-0-0, +9.00*)

3* Buffalo @ Syracuse Under 43
These teams combined to score 7 points last week against average defenses. Syracuse defense held WVU offense to 6 points, and could easily shut out Buffalo.
Prediction: Syracuse 24, Buffalo 0.

2* Wake Forest @ Nebraska Under 46
Nebraska‘s offense is dreadful, but the black shirts are still pretty strong defensively.
Prediction Wake Forest 17, Nebraska 10

2* Stanford @ Navy Under 47
Navy’s style dictates low-scoring games, and we are not sold on Stanford’s offense.
Prediction: Stanford 20, Navy 17

2* Cincy @ Penn St Under 43.5
Penn St. was the only team in America to not give up more than 21 points in a game last year. They still only managed to win 4 games. We are still not sold on their offense, but their defense should handle Cincinnati.
Prediction: PSU 21, Cincy 10

1* Clemson @ Maryland Under 42.5
Maryland is weak offensively, but will stay in this game on the strength of their defense. Last year’s meeting ended 10-7. This year’s final should be similar.
Prediction: Maryland 14, Clemson 13

1* Vandy @ Arkansas Under 51.5
Arkansas has only two returning offensive starters from last year. When forced to play without QB Jones last season, the Hogs offense was inept. Their defense will still contain Vandy.
Prediction: Arkansas 21, Vandy 20

1* Southern Miss @ Alabama Under 41.5
We don’t expect Southern Miss to get double digits, and its hard to anticipate Alabama putting up 35 against a historically tough So. Miss. defense.
Prediction: Alabama 27, So. Miss. 3

[bigpig19]

Total Record (2-1) +6.8*

NCAA totals

3* Under 46 Texas/Ohio St.
2* Under 44 Neraska/Wake Forest
1* Over 56' Minnesota/Colorado St.
1* under 60 San Jose/Illinois

[EBone]

Here are my plays for Saturday. NFL scares me half to death so I probably won't post anything there for a couple of weeks.


Hawaii +34 over Michigan State-----1 unit
Marshall +10 over Kansas State-------5 units
Clemson +1.5 over Maryland----------2.5 units
Auburn -15 over Mississippi State---5 units
Miami-Ohio -22 over Central Michigan---5 units
California -9 over Washington-----1 unit
Navy +2.5 over Stanford---------1 unit
Utah -24.5 over Utah State-------5 units
UL Lafayette +6 over Eastern Michigan-----1 unit
Troy State +9 over UAB----------5 units


Good luck to everyone this weekend.


E

[kalmikrazy]

10* - maryland -1.5

thats it for now. more tomm morn

[BuddyBear]

Well off to the dreaded wedding #1 on Saturday so I'll go ahead and post my plays today...but I am confident I'll get better numbers on certain games tomorrow before i leave around 1:00 or so. So as usual with me...1 unit each game as I absolutely never vary my bet size regardless of how confident i feel about a game. All but one game is a play against the public which is my dominant betting strategy/theory...let's hope it works.

NCAAF: 4-3 (+.77 units)

Ohio +15 (-105 @SIA)
Nebraska -6 (-106 @PINN)
Maryland -2 (-107 @PINN)
Iowa St +9.5 (+100 @ SIA)
North Carolina +13 (-110 @SIA)
SMU +14.5 (-110 @CANBET)
LSU +105 (CANBET)

All bets are in as of now! Man you can get some great lines at SIA.


Good luck to everyone tomorrow as I hope everyone is in the green heading into Sunday! :0000027:

[jmdshort]

First college picks... and first picks overall - so hopefully the gambling gods will shine a little bit on me... please?

SDSU +14 .5*
Air Force -8 2.5*
Washiington +9 .5*
NIU +3 .5*
Vandy +11 .5*
Texas Tech -34 2*
Ohio State -1 3*
TX/OSU u46 .5*
SMU +15 1*
LSU/ASU 2ndHalf u24 .5*

Stole a couple from Razz (hope you don't mind)

[Razz]

Only if you lose.

[Todd]

kansas state -9.5
wake forest +7.5
penn state -17
michigan -7
alabama -12
lsu +1.5
vandy +10.5

[Razz]

We don't put out Tennis plays, so this is unofficial, but I am betting on Robbie Ginepri tomorrow +225, strictly from a +EV perspective. Along with the opinion that Ginepri would win more than one out of every three matchups, I also think the drawn out match of the other night will take its toll on the aging Agassi. As I said, this play is just for someone who wants to throw a couple bucks on a tennis match, not official or anything.

We do put out college football plays, and here are five late 1* additions.

1* Vandy +11 @ Arkansas
Vandy was impressive last week, and has one of the most underrated offenses in the nation. Arkansas returns only two offensive starters and eight total.

1* MTSU -4 vs. North Texas
MTSU lost almost nothing from last year's team, while North Texas lost most of their firepower. Mean Green not so mean here, as MTSU takes a big step towards dethroning NT as conference champs.

1* LSU +1.5 vs. Arizona St.
LSU is going to be demoralized, and that Sam Keller is a great QB for AZ St. Well, that's the general public's viewpoint, and they are wrong here.

1* Northern Illinois +3 vs. Northwestern
Northern Illinois should have been a lot closer to beating Michigan last week. The MAC went winless last week against the Big 10. We think that changes here.

1* Washington +9 vs California
Coach Ty not gonna blow this one if it gets close. Washington does have 18 starters returning, not that they were that good, but we like them as a home dog.

[Illusion]

Friday night results will be posted in the afternoon.

[kdmfox]

Notre Dame +7
Bowling Green +3.5
Clemson +1
Wake Forest +7

[Razz]

Bowling Green +3.5

Is this supposed to be Boise St.?

[BuddyBear]

I've been hearing about that line on another forum...it has to be an obvious mistake and if that's the case the book is going to refund your money for that bet. Canbet is running Bowling Green -28.5 @ Ball St right now.

If not, lay your life savings on that line

[newb411breaker19]

Baseball
Rangers/A's U9 +108 1 UNIT
Pirates/Reds U9.5 -102 1 UNIT

Football
Iowa/Iowa State O46.5 -108 1 UNIT
ASU (-1) vs. LSU +100 1 UNIT

gluck everyone

[Illusion]

Yesterday's results:

Razz: 6-2 +15.00
newb411breaker19: 4-1 +2.78
MAB: 2-0 +2.00
kdmfox: 2-1 +1.05
Senator7: 3-2 -0.67
why: 0-1 -1.00
Illusion: 1-3 -1.74
EBone: 1-4 -10.46

[Illusion]

South Carolina +18 -108 (2 units)
Nebraska -6.5 -104

Marlins +131
Brewers +135
Cardinals -160 (5 units)
Cardinals -1.5 +137 (2 units)

[Razz]

6* Ohio State -1 vs. Texas
5* Alabama -11.5 vs. Southern Mississippi

Absolutely unbelievable that both these games lost.

[MAB]

I completely agree with you Razz. Alabama up by 9, 4th and inches, kick the FG.....

[jmdshort]

Not only did I lose on OSU (biggest bet today)... but that freakin' SAFETY cost me a small under bet!

Oh well - I need to keep reminding myself that these things can (and do) happen.
Besides... with the TCU/SMU and 2nd Half of LSU to finish up; worse I can do today is finish +4.5 units. Best... almost 9; thanks to Razz's Air Force and TX Tech picks.

[Razz]

I completely agree with you Razz. Alabama up by 9, 4th and inches, kick the FG.....

I'd have gone for it too. Just don't fumble going in for the TD.

[Razz]

jmd, SMU's about to win the game outright. That eases my pain a little.

[moses millsap]

Ohio State loss caps one of the worse weeks I've had in awhile. Time to take some time off, absolutely unreal they did not cover this game.

[Senator7]

7-3-1 in Week 2 NCAA action. 6-4-1 in Week 1 puts me at a very respectable 13-7-2 for college football so far this year. So far, so good! Hopefully, my NFL picks will be just as strong.

Senator 7

[Illusion]

Tonight's results:

bigpig19: 7-3 +12.30
Illusion: 5-1 +11.05
Buddybear: 6-1 +4.98
kdmfox: 3-1 +2.90
Senator7: 6-3-1 +2.70
jmdshort: 4-6 -0.05
newb411breaker19: 1-2-1 -1.00
Todd: 3-4 -1.20
Razz: 11-14 -3.20
EBone: 5-5 -4.20
OWNED: 0-1 -11.00
kalmikrayz: 0-1 -11.00

[bigpig19]

correction for illusion dont mean to be picky, but i went 8-2 not 7-3 and +14.2 not +12.3