My best bet is New York -3.5 vs Los Angeles
QBs usually have the most trouble on their first outing. For this reason, you often see lower offense in week 1 (when all QBs are having their first game), and when new QBs start. This is more the case this year, with the easing of rules on the Jack linebacker.
New York's offense sputtered in week 1. Then Garcia got hurt, giving Davey a few starts. Then Garcia came back. In the first 5 games (where no QB started their offense in 3 consecutive games), they averaged only 35 points per game, which is far below what Garcia can do.
Garcia came back into the lineup against Dallas. Since that start, their offense has gotten back on track, averaging almost 58 points per game. This is not that unusual for one of the league's premier QBs (Garcia has a passer rating of 116 this year, as well as his average for his 15 year carreer).
On the defensive side, New York has quietly climbed to the #3 defense in points allowed at 42.8 per game (behind #1 Dallas and #2 Chicago). This is not the usual "points allowed" - this excludes scores by special teams and defense, which tend to be very luck based.
While LAA's offense has been inconsistent, its defense has been very consistent - consistently bad. It has allowed 55.2 points per game (only Utah and Kansas City allow more than 56 points). After starting at 2-0, reality sent it to 2-6 in the next 8 games.
I make the fair line New York -8.5. I'll take them at -3.5 as this week's Arena best bet.
QBs usually have the most trouble on their first outing. For this reason, you often see lower offense in week 1 (when all QBs are having their first game), and when new QBs start. This is more the case this year, with the easing of rules on the Jack linebacker.
New York's offense sputtered in week 1. Then Garcia got hurt, giving Davey a few starts. Then Garcia came back. In the first 5 games (where no QB started their offense in 3 consecutive games), they averaged only 35 points per game, which is far below what Garcia can do.
Garcia came back into the lineup against Dallas. Since that start, their offense has gotten back on track, averaging almost 58 points per game. This is not that unusual for one of the league's premier QBs (Garcia has a passer rating of 116 this year, as well as his average for his 15 year carreer).
On the defensive side, New York has quietly climbed to the #3 defense in points allowed at 42.8 per game (behind #1 Dallas and #2 Chicago). This is not the usual "points allowed" - this excludes scores by special teams and defense, which tend to be very luck based.
While LAA's offense has been inconsistent, its defense has been very consistent - consistently bad. It has allowed 55.2 points per game (only Utah and Kansas City allow more than 56 points). After starting at 2-0, reality sent it to 2-6 in the next 8 games.
I make the fair line New York -8.5. I'll take them at -3.5 as this week's Arena best bet.