Steelers 21 Packers 17
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35-27 gbComment -
Gb-38 Pitt-17Comment -
Pit 24
gb 17Comment -
Pack 24
Pitt 20Comment -
Steelers 24, GB 20Comment -
23-21 PackersComment -
20-17 GB in OT...well maybe in OTComment -
Steelers 28 ...... Packers 10 ......Comment -
WHAT VEGAS SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT SUNDAY'S SUPER BOWL
It's been just a shade under two weeks since the Super Bowl lines went up. Because the public doesn't usually bet until Super Bowl weekend (when they come to Las Vegas or Reno to party!), the action we've seen so far on the boards represent sharp action (money from professional wagerers).
The indications are very clear. What I'm about to describe may be a bit confusing to some of you. It's important to remember in a game like this that they're not complete agreement. It's not like ALL Wise Guys like one team, and ALL Wise Guys think the same way about the total. There are different opinions, but sharps always find away to give themselves the best number.
In short:- Sharps who like Green Bay have bet the Packers at -2.5. That line has been available for a long time. They don't expect to see -2 or better (though there are some stragglers who may be waiting for the deuce).
- Sharps who like Pittsburgh have bet the Steelers +3. That number comes and goes, and sharps jump in when they see it.
- There are more sharps in my view who like Pittsburgh rather than Green Bay. They're impressed with Pittsburgh's defense. They're impressed with Ben Roethlisberger's big game toughness. They think experience matters in the postseason, and this is the third recent Super Bowl visit for the Steelers. They'd also rather have the AFC champion than the NFC champion.
- Sharps AREN'T betting Pittsburgh on the moneyline much because they don't consider it a fair return. Historically, pointspreads are stacked against favorites (though not so much here) and moneylines are stacked against underdogs because squares (the public) like betting on upsets (especially if they're a big fan of that team). Sharps who like Pittsburgh are taking the points.
- Sharps who like the Over have bet Over 44.
- Sharps who like the Under bet Under 46 when it was available right after the lines went up. There was initial interest in the Over, but then Under bettors who love these defenses stepped in aggressively at that time.
- My take is that a lot more sharps like the Under than the Over. There are "history" guys who just bet Overs in the Super Bowl in general because that was a sound strategy for so long. My discussions with the pure handicappers suggest they like the Under, and they think the bad weather in Dallas during preparation week may help that because it's been such a distraction.
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This capper one of the best i have seen ..8-2 so far in the playoffs
Steelers +3 (-120)
For some time now, I have been valuing the Packers as the best team in the NFC. This has allowed me to ride them in recent games when the market was undermining their true worth. I still value the Packers as the class as the NFC. What has changed is the markets valuation on this team, as just a few weeks ago; they were valuing the Packers at around the 4th best team in the NFC, and are now valuing them as the best team in football. Markets are vulnerable to a cognitive bias that makes them overemphasize what they recently saw. This holds especially true in a game whose line is heavily influenced by non predictive money like the Super Bowl. This looks like a classic market overthrow, where market participants chase past performance and neglect the true predictability of that performance. The Packers have now become overrated.
The Packers offense is especially overrated. Blown out of proportion is their newfound running game. Improved does not necessarily mean good, and it is hard to classify the Packers as a solid running team. Starks presence has also been blown out of proportion, averaging less than 3 yards a carry in his last two games. The Steelers have the best defense in the NFL bar none. They also are the clear top best defending the run. This newfound running game should be a non factor in this game, forcing more pressure on Rodgers to make things happen. Normally, this would not necessarily be a bad thing, as Rodgers has consistently been able to answer the call. But a one dimensional passing attack, against a complex defense (with two weeks to prepare) that has a talented secondary and the ability to pressure from all angles should be concerning for Rodgers. Rodgers has been able to counter the one dimensional role with high productivity in the shotgun in past games. The Steelers also happen to have the best defense in defending this formation as well. Rodgers recent uptick has also been a bit blown out of proportion. He had a below average game last week against the Bears, threw for less than 200 yards against the Eagles, and was only able to lead his team to 10 points in the must win week 17 game. 3 of his last 4 games have actually been nothing to write home about.
The Steelers offense is underrated. Although the Packers defense will be the best defense they have seen all season, it is a defense that has some weaknesses that the Steelers can attack. The Packers run defense is mediocre. The Steelers should have more success running the ball compared to the Packers. This is especially important, as both defensive fronts have the edge over both offensive lines (allowing to get to the quarterback), and edge that can be better masked with an efficient running game. The Steelers have an underrated passing attack whose versatility comes in handy against talented pass defenses like the Packers. Their ability to use spread formations in a productive manner allows them to attack the Packers weak spot in coverage. The Packers also struggle covering the tight end and the play action, something in which the Steelers can also exploit. Although all the attention is on the Rogers and the Packers highly touted offense, I am expecting the Steelers offensive to provide better balance and the ability to attack the opposing defenses weaknesses.
Simply put, the Steelers are the best team in football. They are the only team in the league with a better defense than the Packers, and also have the better balanced offense. They also match up better against their opponent and have more experience on their side. The better coordinators also belong to the Steelers, an asset that is magnified in a game with two weeks to prepare. The market was late to the party on the Packers. Trying to play catch up is a dangerous game. Wrong team favored. I will take the SteelersComment -
Packers 24, Steelers 21.Comment -
Well My block Pool #'s are ASS so hopefully i will be on the right side of some sides and props ... GL to everyone and thank you for the write up JR ... your info is always reliable and unbiased.
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too many score predictions to copy and paste .. any reliable people on this espn article, please inform the board. Thank you.Comment -
pitt 27 - gb 24Comment -
17-10 steelcityComment -
hard to tell whats been taking, 27 -23 steelers, i guess, not gonna go back and lookComment -
gb24 pitt 20Comment -
13 - 14 steelersComment -
Packers 41 Steelers 31Comment -
GB 24 Pit 13Comment -
Greenbay 24
Pittsburgh 20Comment -
34-24
packersComment -
23-17 pittComment -
19-17 PittComment -
Steelers... 30 - 23Comment -
pitt 24
packers 10Comment -
Pitt 20
GB 17Comment -
28-24 pitComment -
steelers 26 packer 23Comment -
Pit: 35
GB: 42
Sorry, I cant bet on my team. KarmaComment -
Packers 28 Steelers 13Comment -
31-14 steelersComment -
31 - 17 pittComment
