About the 2009 Packers vs Steelers game

GunShard · 02-02-11, 04:03 AM

I'm taking the OVER 44.

I keep analyzing this in my head with the statistics many times.

Steelers and Packers are evenly matched, it should be a shoot out.

slacker00 · 02-02-11, 04:26 AM

I was looking at that yesterday. Roethlisberger for over 500 yards! That was his career high by 70 yards. I took him for MVP +350.

Robust · 02-02-11, 05:12 AM

over for me.. too many people taking the under and the majority always loses!!

Robust

slacker00 · 02-02-11, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by Robust

over for me.. too many people taking the under and the majority always loses!!

Robust

The real money is in the props. Use the 2009 box score to figure out which matchups will be key.

But don't be fooled by Mendenhall's low output in the 2009 game. Packers had the NFL's #1 run D that year, this year they are #18 with all of the injuries at LB. Plus, Mendenhall is having a career year this year.

I also hit props on Heath Miller, but you could probably bang the overs on every WR listed based on 2009.

eberetta1 · 02-02-11, 07:59 AM

I like high scoring games. It should be a high scorer since you cannot touch the receiver if he is 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. Just favorable conditions.

Scorpion · 02-02-11, 09:34 AM

About that game:
GBs TE Finely is out, he had 11 catches
GBs RB Grant is out, he was their best rusher, Starks is a rookie
2 of their starting LBs are out(Burnett and Jones), they are replaced by 2 6th round picks
I dont know who else is out, GB has 16 players on IR

For PITT, Troy P was out for that game
Their CBs Carter, Burnett, Townsend who played like shit in that game and were terrible are gone too

Mudcat · 02-02-11, 09:49 AM

I bet UNDER 45.5 big when the lines were released. Leaning towards Green Bay but it would only be a rec bet if I play it.

meader99 · 02-02-11, 01:20 PM

Pitt also had Santonio Holmes that game. Not having him makes that passing offense far less explosive.

chargers4222 · 02-02-11, 03:45 PM

aw yea lets go with that over unstoppable rodgers big ben lets go

ramones951 · 02-02-11, 04:28 PM

This is a somewhat useful tool in some cases.

But Green Bay, even after the injuries they've had this year, have improved greatly since that game; especially on defense.

Originally posted by Scorpion

About that game:
GBs TE Finely is out, he had 11 catches
GBs RB Grant is out, he was their best rusher, Starks is a rookie
2 of their starting LBs are out(Burnett and Jones), they are replaced by 2 6th round picks
I dont know who else is out, GB has 16 players on IR

For PITT, Troy P was out for that game
Their CBs Carter, Burnett, Townsend who played like shit in that game and were terrible are gone too

First, Finley had 9 catches, 11 targets.

You listing who all will be missing from this 2009 game would be a valid argument if Green Bay lost all those people suddenly after the NFC championship game... The fact is all the work the've been doing on offense, the shutdown D they've been showing, it's all been done by this group right here. They are on fire right now, and they get to play in a dome, and finally have some fan support...

Can't even understand why you would still bring up Ryan Grant being out at this point in the season.

He was shut out in that game, first of all. I'm not sure if you've noticed, but Green Bay had arguabley the best passing offense in the league this year, with a transparent running game.

BettingWizard · 02-02-11, 07:37 PM

last year's game means nothing. Polamalu didnt play and the Steelers were a mess

GB secondary much better than last year

LT Profits · 02-02-11, 09:02 PM

That 2009 game means absolutely nothing, as the Green Bay defense is 10 times better now than it was then. The Packers had the best defense in the NFC this season. Last season, they couldn't stop a nosebleed.

Scorpion · 02-02-11, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

That 2009 game means absolutely nothing, as the Green Bay defense is 10 times better now than it was then. The Packers had the best defense in the NFC this season. Last season, they couldn't stop a nosebleed.

You are the same poster who loved NE -9.5 over the NYJ

so I guess this means you love GB in the super bowl

LT Profits · 02-02-11, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Scorpion

You are the same poster who loved NE -9.5 over the NYJ

so I guess this means you love GB in the super bowl

And I am also the poster that called GB outright the first two rounds of the playoffs as dogs and also saw them winning easily at Chicago when others thought the Bears had the line value.

As for Super Bowl, the Under might be a better bet than either side right now. I am locked in to Green Bay -2.5 -110, but that number is long gone.

Jonah · 02-03-11, 12:01 AM

Both secondaries are much much better than they were in that game. Still like the over tho.

Stevedore · 02-03-11, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by Scorpion

You are the same poster who loved NE -9.5 over the NYJ

so I guess this means you love GB in the super bowl

Trying to figure out what your fav team is, GB obviously kicked their ass this year.

Sunde91 · 02-03-11, 12:31 AM

Don't know how anyone can seriously consider this game as significant, especially PITT backers/homers.

Total anomaly for two reasons:

1) Ben had a career high 46 attempts for 500 yards and they only win a last second pass...Ben won't get half that. Probably 225 on 30 attempts.

2) GB Pass D this year has given up 300+ pass yards once. They held New England to 138 yards passing...in NE.

I could see GB tearing up PITT similarly (seriously not going to explain why for the 5th time), but not only will PITT not come close to the attempts, but GB's D wouldn't allow so many yards if they did.

GunShard · 02-03-11, 03:38 AM

Video for this game:

Stevedore · 02-03-11, 10:09 AM

Lol at all the SQUARE'S who are weighing this game so much. First year of GB's transformation from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive scheme. They're secondary got lit up often last year.

2 stiffs in the secondary Bush #24 and Bell #26 who gave up the game winner don't play on defense this year. That's all you need to know about that game. Watch that You Tube again and see how many plays # 24 gave up.

Open your eyes and do some research SQUARE'S!!

hubie69 · 02-03-11, 11:48 AM

Yeah, you should probably tread lightly if you're using last years game for anything meaningful....

GunShard · 02-04-11, 01:07 AM

Stevedore, you are the Square if you are wrong.

When it comes predicting outcomes, you have to compare each team by 1 team on 1 team matchups. This was the previous matchup. It's better to be a year ago, than 5 years ago.

If you are using the Oppg, Packers 2nd rank, Steelers 1st rank. That is an unfair comparison, the overall Ppg and Oppg are 1 team vs the field: 32 teams.

RJ89 · 02-04-11, 01:35 AM

I don't think it makes sense to put too much stock in that game. Both defenses are in much better shape than they were last year.. I do like the over, but the flow game will be much different..

GunShard · 02-05-11, 12:02 AM

There's an ESPN analyst on TV who also watched this previous 2009 game like I did and his prediction was this:

Steelers 31
Packers 28

He is also viewing this as an Over as I am. But let's see if this happens.

Art Vandelay · 02-05-11, 01:25 AM

Rodgers will carve up Pitt just like he did last year and just like Brady did a few months ago - similar offenses. A great prop is Rodgers OVER 23 completions. GB by 7 and Over 44!

ssk13809 · 02-05-11, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

Video for this game:

Wow what a game. If the Super Bowl turned out to be as good as this game, it would be in the talks of greatest super bowl of all-time

CaptainPrice · 02-05-11, 03:05 AM

Don't think it helps me much

Prop Bet Master · 02-05-11, 03:46 AM

I don't know what I can say that hasn't already been said. The Super Bowl won't be anything like that game.

slacker00 · 02-05-11, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by Sunde91

GB Pass D this year has given up 300+ pass yards once. They held New England to 138 yards passing...in NE.

FALSE.

Detroit passed for 331 yards week 4.
Washington passed for 357 week 5.
NYG passed for 301 week 16.

I love when guys post stats because it's objective. But you look like a retard when you just make stats up.

(BTW: NE had 163 passing yards in that game.)

Originally posted by LT Profits

That 2009 game means absolutely nothing, as the Green Bay defense is 10 times better now than it was then. The Packers had the best defense in the NFC this season. Last season, they couldn't stop a nosebleed.

FALSE.

LT, look at the stats from last year. GB gave up 4551 total yards in 2009, 4945 in 2010. I already mentioned GBs run D was #1 in 2009, it's #18 in 2010. GBs pass D had 30 interceptions in 2009, only 24 in 2010. I've been having this argument about the Packers D for the past two weeks with my closest handicapping buddy, but all of the stats point to their D being stronger in 2009 than in 2010. I guess the only argument is to throw out the regular season and focus on playoff statistics which included that fiasco in Arizona versus their miracle run this year. My final point is that the Steelers did this to the Packers in 2009 when the Packers were peaking defensively.

slacker00 · 02-05-11, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by Stevedore

Lol at all the SQUARE'S who are weighing this game so much. First year of GB's transformation from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive scheme. They're secondary got lit up often last year.

FALSE.

GB only allowed one 300+ yard passing game in 2009, that was Roethlisbergers 500+ yard passing game.

The Pitt game was week 15. The 3-4 transition was complete. GB was shutting down everyone at that point.

ramones951 · 02-05-11, 03:12 PM

Except the wild card round against Arizona where they allowed 379 yards passing....

Their secondary is definitely better...

saratoga1927 · 02-05-11, 04:11 PM

Good stuff slacker00 ..........

slacker00 · 02-05-11, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by ramones951

Except the wild card round against Arizona where they allowed 379 yards passing....

Their secondary is definitely better...

Good point. I was looking at the regular season stats, I forgot to include the playoff game.

Two games and my original point still stands. Goofball said they got lit up often, it was really just a couple incidents.

The secondary is definitely better:
In 2009 they allowed 3218 passing yards, 7th in the league.
In 2010 they allowed 3107 passing yards, 4th in the league.

But they also had 30 interceptions in 2009 versus 24 in 2010, just for the record.

I could quote some more stats such as opponent QB rating. 68.8 in 2009, 67.2 in 2010.

But my point is that there isn't a night and day difference. Improvement? Absolutely. But it was always solid.

I mean, Charles Woodson was the defensive player of the year in 2009. They had a good secondary in 2009.

GunShard · 02-06-11, 06:25 AM

Nice insight slacker00.

GunShard · 02-06-11, 10:22 AM

Good luck everyone!