Super Bowl Prop Betting Interview with Justin7

[SBRPicks]

SBR's resident prop betting expert Justin7 discusses Super Bowl props with SBRtv's Peter Loshak. They give a general overview of why Super Bowl props are so popular with some professionals, how to price Super Bowl props, and what kinds of Super Bowl props have value, and where and why.



Part 1
Why Super Bowl props are attractive to professional gamblers, the schedule of when props get released, and the value involved with Super Bowl props in general.




Part 2
How to price out props, and what kinds of props tend to have value and why.

[KingKolzig]

for rec bettors with $100 book limits isnt it better to take all your over props early in the week and your under props right before kickoff cause other rec bettors tend to take the overs during the week?

i already see some good value at some books for overs (take now)

e. sanders o37.5 recyds +125
j. starks rush att o18.5 +175

then later on in the week wait for a prop like g.jennnings rec yds ( u80.5 +110 currently) to go to +130 eventually

[Justin7]

If you think it will move against you (as most mispriced props will), then yes. Fire early.

[Boscoe]

nice videos. thanks.

[YorkHunt]

Justin, no offense but you look like aaron rodgers when he shaves! Good info by the way!

[durito]

You aren't paying much attention this year are you.

[KingKolzig]

If you think it will move against you (as most mispriced props will), then yes. Fire early.

my theory is that rec bettors take overs more often. especially big games they will be watching live. id even think it would break down like this for rec bettors:

Games not watching. overs 55%, unders 45%
Games watching. overs 62%, unders 38%


so simply take overs now, and wait a week to take unders

[madmiek]

Yeah justin 7 does look like aaron rodgers no offense here either..... on another note, what is the max amount you can bet on a prop bet in a vegas casino such as the M. can you bet millions?

[mr.ed]

The M casino opened their prop betting on Friday and took 3k per prop. Not sure what happens closer to kick-off but would guess limits will rise dramatically if they are getting two-way action.

Regarding Justin7's comments about trusting the number.....I've often heard that the SB is the only "public" number of the year. That said, I use the total for pricing many of my props (chance of scoreless quarter...etc). Should I really put trust in the 44 and a 1/2 that is up now? To build a database of games to work off of, I've been taking games using a spread of 41-44 1/2, so in my opinion the current total is inflated by about 2 points.

[madmiek]

If i was fergie i would send someone to evey casino that offers prop bets in vegas and put the max on wearing a cheerleader outfit. . Easiest cash ever!

[sweethook]

very good stuff

[gdoom]

The besty prop out there. Hines ward will scopre first td

[pgall08]

Good info, thanks

[spongerat]

thanks i like these videos

[Jeffito11]

I am loving that info

[KingJIM]

Thanks for the videos.

[SpeedPro]

Hope to put some of that info to use sunday!

[Raleigh77]

Justin 7 is the man.

[jjgold]

Justin looks like he got some work done on his fukkin head

Possible hair transplant or extensions

Whatever he did it looks fukkin good and he looks 7 years younger

[NY Playa]

Who's Gonna Win the Superbowl? Have no clue but I know this about the halftime show: It will last over 11 minutes, the Opening Song should be "Let's Get It Started" Followed by "Tonight..." and Slash will join Fergie for a rendition of G n' R Sweet Child O' Mine....

[Pdog]

hey thanks for the info!

on a side note, im going with blue gatorade prop bet.

[bort]

Here are the props that I'm playing this year. I always play props within about 30 minutes of kickoff, because the public usually pushes the lines in my favor (since I always bet the "under" or less exciting side). The lines are from TheGreek sportsbook.

909 Ben Roethlisberger (1st QB to reach 100+ pass yds) +200
Roethlisberger averages 254 passing yards per game this season, while Rodgers averages 262. It's very close, and there's no reason for this highly inflated line (except for public money).

1001 Throw a TD pass (Roethlisberger, vs. Interception) -180
This season, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 19 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. So, the line should be closer to -270.

1020 No (will Ben Roethlisberger throw an interception) +140
Roethlisberger has only thrown 7 interceptions in 6 games this season (out of 14). We're getting plus money when we should be laying slightly.

1110 Under 22.5 pass completions (Aaron Rodgers) +145
Rodgers' pass completions average only 21 per game this season, but we're getting plus money thanks to public action. This prop would've gone 12-6 this year.

1112 Under 34.5 pass attempts (Aaron Rodgers) +140
Rodgers' pass attempts average only 31.6 per game this season, but we're getting plus money thanks to public action. This prop would've gone 13-5 this year.

1122 Pittsburgh first downs (vs. Rodgers completions) +260
The Steelers have averaged 18.8 first downs per game, while Aaron Rodgers has averaged 21 completions. This is pretty close, and yet the line is inflated.

1207 Rashard Mendenhall (who will score a TD first) -220
Mendenhall has scored 16 touchdowns this season, compared to only 1 for Starks. Even though Starks has only played in 6 games (vs. Mendenhall's 18), this line is still dirt cheap.

1254 Under 1 pass receptions (Isaac Redman) -450
Redman has only gone over 1 pass reception in one game during the regular season, and didn't make a single reception in the playoffs. This prop would've gone 10-1-7 during the year.

1754 No (will Heath Miller score a touchdown) -280
Miller has started in 16 games this season and has only scored 3 touchdowns

1784 Under 3.5 pass receptions (Mike Wallace) -115
Wallace has only gone over 3.5 receptions in 6 games this season, out of 18 games in which he started (including 0-2 in the playoffs).

1810 No (will Emmanuel Sanders score a touchdown) -360
Sanders has scored only 2 touchdowns this season, out of 15 games played.

1822 Under 26.5 receiving yards (Antonio Brown) -180
Brown has gone under 26.5 receiving yards in 8 of his 11 games this season.

1830 No (will Antonio Brown score a touchdown) -650
Antonio Brown hasn't scored a TD all year, despite having played in 11 games.

1850 No (Will Andrew Quarless score a touchdown) -630
Quarless has scored one TD all year (week 7 against the struggling Minnesota Vikings), despite having appeared in 16 games.

1864 Under 4.5 pass receptions (Donald Driver) -200
Driver has gone under 4.5 receptions in 13 out of 18 games this season.

1910 No (will Jordy Nelson score a touchdown) -300
Nelson has scored only 3 touchdowns despite having played in all 19 games this season.

2060 Under 4 tackles (LaMarr Woodley) -165
Woodley has only made over 4 tackles on 3 occasions this season (hitting exactly 5 on each). This prop would've gone 12-3-3 this year.

2072 Under 5 tackles (Clay Matthews) -240
Matthews has only made over 5 tackles on 3 occasions this season. This prop would've gone 10-3-5 this year.

2074 Under 4 tackles (Sam Shields) -230
Shields has gone over 4 tackles on only 1 occasion this year (against the pathetic Detroit Lions). This prop would've gone 13-1-3 during the year. It's doubtful that this rookie will suddenly learn how to tackle at the Super Bowl.

[brumbies]

So how did Justin7 fare on props? Myself I basically broke even over about 100 props.

[Justin7]

So how did Justin7 fare on props? Myself I basically broke even over about 100 props.

I actually bet more on prop parlay cards. MGM had one with some monster correlations, and the "Green Bay/Over" box all hit.

[rm18]

I actually bet more on prop parlay cards. MGM had one with some monster correlations, and the "Green Bay/Over" box all hit.

[DeweyDoggy]

yuuup

I won all of my prop bets. It takes a lot of research and skill, but once you do your homework it's quite simple really.

[blackbart]

simple really, just look at the list above, that gives an idea how simple it is. laying wood is easy, till it isnt [jordy nelson].