super bowl line move

[Scorpion]

Steelers +3 to +2.5/+2

do u think we will see +3 again?

doesnt take a ton of money for books to move the line from +3?

seems a lot was wagered on Pitt today

[Scorpion]

Super Bowl XLV odds: Opening line report

By RYAN STETSON


In many ways, it’s the Super Bowl matchup everyone wanted to see.

The Green Bay Packers squaring off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup that features two of the most influential franchises in NFL history – not to mention two of the most popular teams among football bettors.

That makes the game’s line pretty interesting. After some early talk that the game could open as low as a pick ‘em, most books settled with a line favoring Green Bay by about 1.5 and a total of 45 or 46 points.

The Packers headed into Championship Weekend pegged as the Super Bowl favorite at about +140, so the opening number was in line with that. But it didn’t stay there long after the Steelers managed to hold off a late surge from the Jets.

“The opening line quickly went to the Packers -2 and looks like it may be going higher,” Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino, told Covers.com Sunday night.

Esposito was right about that. Later in the evening, most books had tagged another half point on the Packers, making them -2.5 with the juice set around -120. By Monday morning, most offshore books were dealing -3 (+100) while Vegas shops -2.5 flat.

With early numbers like that coming out, it’s pretty obvious the betting public’s love affair with Green Bay is still in the honeymoon stage. That was the biggest factor in setting the line, according to veteran Oddsmaker Pete Korner, of Esportclub LLC.

“The main factor in making this one line was perception,” Korner told Covers.com. “The perception is that Green Bay is the best team playing right now. They were going to be favorites over the AFC winner no matter who it was.”

Korner actually sent out Green Bay -3 with Cheesehead bettors cleaning up on their late run in the regular season and into the first three rounds of the playoffs.

“They were by far the hottest team in the league down the stretch and the betting public here in Nevada sportsbooks backed them in all three playoff games and did extremely well,” Esposito adds. “But I think you will see plenty of action on the Steelers getting points as it gets closer to game day and that number - especially on the moneyline - will start to drop.”

You could make a good case for a Steelers bet too, which is the perfect situation for the books looking to balance their action on both sides. With Green Bay surging, some are overlooking the fact that Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine games and has covered the number in six of those contests. During that stretch the Steelers have allowed more than 20 points only twice.

Pittsburgh has also been a regular under wager for many bettors, though the amount of action the books see on the Super Bowl could impact the total as well. Square bettors love over bets as they slam their Budweisers and scarf down their wings.

“The total has been going under the past few years and even though both teams have dynamic offenses, they are two of the very best defensives teams in the game,” Korner says. “I don't think this number runs too far but on a day like this, the public rules and that means they will bet the over.”

Whichever side you decide to lay your money on, the buzz of a Steelers-Packers Super Bowl has Vegas and online betting organizations furiously rubbing their hands together, expecting another huge handle.

“We think it’s going to be one of the most popular Super Bowl’s ever,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook Director. “Currently, these are the two most popular teams playing for the crown. I don’t know if it will surpass the record from 2006 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and the Steelers but I’m very positive it will surpass last year’s number. The record for Nevada is $94 million - last year we wrote $82 million.”

[bobbyk1133]

Bodog has +3 still.

[Scorpion]

i meant a real book sir

[Oli]

best of luck this week

[Bswitz32]

I would really like the Steelers rocked the Pack but the Packers are a good team and this may be a great SB

BOL

[Nard Dog]

Lots of time left, the line can certainly move back. I think both teams have equal chances.

[thefastship]

Cant wait to get me some steelers action on a few parlays....!! Rodgers will get knocked out this game.

[KACK]

I was never so undecided about a super bowl pick... I think this line goes down before kickoff next week... If you like the steelers buy the .5 point and get it at +3...

[Bartmeister]

I hope it drops some more

[xyzky]

Don't think it will come back, will likely close at -1 to -1.5...

[bio_blitz]

Nope

Steelers +3 to +2.5/+2

do u think we will see +3 again?

doesnt take a ton of money for books to move the line from +3?

seems a lot was wagered on Pitt today

This line might even close at a pick by game time...
good luck

[Skidcom]

I don't see it moving back to 3

[ex50warrior]

Bodog has +3 still.

Typical BoDog line. And it's why I keep an active acount with them; when playing a dog I can oftentimes get a better number with them than any of my other accounts.

[Wrecktangle]

Frankly, I was a little surprised to see it move to GB-3. Obviously I underestimated the size of Cheese-burger Nation's fattened wallets from all those playoff wins.

If you get a shot at PIT+3 again, take it.

BTW, I see PIT-1.5 as the true value.

[tomcast]

I am surprised the line ever was as high as 3 and I don't think it will move back.

[dannyd66]

By Game Time....

This line will move down to at least -1....more probably, a Pick-em......watch

[Grosshhit]

if you're going to play the steelers then the time is now to jump on that line. It will move closer to +1.5 by gameday

[iwantcougars]

i expected the line to stay on 3, because everyone is on the packers

[beanbag]

not sure about it going back to +3 but im waiting for the moneyline +125

[sethmoko]

I don't see it getting back to +3 at all... agree with those saying it may be a pick by kickoff.

[Scorpion]

The wrong team is favored in this super bowl

[knelson]

Wow..can't believe it ever got to +3. I would assume this will almost be a pickem game.

[vboyt]

taking Steelers here!!

[blackbox]

The game will not go back to -3 - too much of a chance for the books to lose big time now.

[Robust]

it'll be back to 3.. then down to 2.5 fast.. if you want the 3, be quick!

Robust

[jbridgens]

All this talk about who to bet and nobody is talking about the over/under!! It's down to 44 here in Vegas,does anyone think it'll keep dropping or go back up, I personally love the over but not sure if I should wait or jump on that 44

[pittmatt80]

I really don't think that you will see +3 anymore should of got on that one early if you wanted the Steelers. I honestly think it will be a pick em by game time. Good Luck to All

[uhuhahah]

like GB and over. GB 27 - PIT 23

[bobbyk1133]

The line is very unlikely to hit -3. I don't expect much movement from here. Could go down to -2 and -1.5 at the most.

[borednaz]

Coin flip at best if you can get +3 take it.

[headhunter34]

i think as the super bowl gets closer the line is gonna move closer to a pick em

[Scorpion]

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=6053905

Dissecting the early Super Bowl XLV line

January, 24, 2011 Jan 24
11:40
AM ET

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US PresswireBoth of these quarterbacks' teams are favored on Sunday. Will they reach the Super Bowl?


More than unemployment figures. More than exports and imports. More than inflation or housing prices and the cost of the new iPhone with Verizon service, the most dissected number in the country over the next two weeks will be the point spread for Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.
So, let's dissect, shall we?
All week long, heading into the AFC and NFC Championship Games, I had been getting e-mails from bookmakers and analysts predicting what the likely spread in any of the possible matchups would be. Consistently, in a Green Bay Packers-Pittsburgh Steelers showdown, the Packers were anywhere from a 1.5- to a 3-point favorite. And, sure enough, after the Packers dispatched the Chicago Bears in the NFC title game, most books were speculating that Green Bay would open as a 2.5-point favorite over the Steelers (and a four-point fave over the New York Jets but, well, that is moot now).
However, this is how mercurial and fickle point spreads and the public and bookmakers' interpretation of the public can be: After the Steelers ran up 24 points on the Jets in the first half -- confusing Mark Sanchez with blitzes and making the Gang Green defense look like it was suffering from gangrene -- one of the sharps' favorite offshore books, Pinnacle, posted the game as pick 'em.
This made a lot of wiseguys I know giddier than Steven Tyler judging 16-year-olds on "American Idol." They smelled opportunity. "I am shocked anyone would not see that Green Bay is power-rated higher than Pittsburgh," Fezzik e-mailed me late Sunday night.
After the Jets piled on 19 unanswered points and came within some Brian Schottenheimer playcalling brain farts of potentially scoring even more, bookmakers re-evaluated. And by the time the game opened it was back to Green Bay minus-2 (at the Hilton) or Green Bay minus-3 (several spots offshore).
I tweeted out the number last night and was immediately met with dismay, confusion and anger, as if I had made the spread myself. Some samples: "I'll take Pitt!"; "This isn't justifiable!"; "How can a six seed be favored over a two seed?!?!?!"
Well, the truth is, as far as that last point is concerned, it happens more frequently than you would think. According to Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet, the Indianapolis Colts, as the No. 2 seed out of the AFC four years ago, were favored over the NFC's top-seeded Bears. And, in Big Ben's first Super Bowl, the Steelers were the No. 6 seed playing against No. 1 seed Seattle but came into the game favored.
The other truth is, despite all the protests and love for the Steelers, most of you want the Packers to be favored. That is how you've been betting during the playoffs. Against the Philadelphia Eagles, despite being an underdog, Green Bay got all the money from the public. Same thing against the Atlanta Falcons, when the sharps piled on and took the Packers, too. Even in Chicago in the NFC title game as favorites, the Packers got all the love from the public. This happens a lot in the NFL: teams get hot and fans want to bet them, no matter what the point spread is. "The perception is that Green Bay has handled everyone and has done it on the road," said Pete Korner of the linemaking consulting group The Sports Club. "The bettors have played them hard in every game and that is one of our telltale flags for making them favorites."
Added Teddy Covers: "The market is just more impressed with three road wins by the Packers than two sloppy home wins by the Steelers. Also, at least early bettors are thinking that Green Bay's offense is helped by the fast track in Dallas. The Steelers thrive in sloppy conditions. The Packers looked unstoppable in Atlanta."
For fun, let's do something that actual wiseguys do when dissecting the spread: let's actually dissect the team. There's a reason Fezzik was buying like mad when the game was listed at pick 'em. During the regular season the Packers suffered six losses. However, each one was a peculiar aberration. The franchise-high in penalties against the Bears that cost them a win in Week 3; overtime losses to the Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins; a three-point loss at Atlanta in a game in which Aaron Rodgers fumbled at the Falcons' 1-yard line; losses to the Detroit Lions when Rodgers had been knocked out and to the New England Patriots when Matt Flynn was forced to start; plus the 15 guys on injured reserve. Since Rodgers came back from a concussion against the Giants in Week 16, a game the Pack won 45-17, they have steamrolled the Bears, the Eagles, the Falcons and the Bears again.
But, truly, it's the Packers' defense that handicappers point to as the reason they are power-rated so much higher. A couple of weeks ago I did a podcast with Paul Bessire of predictionmachine.com, who pointed out that it was Green Bay that had the second-best passing efficiency rating for defense in the league. In the playoffs, the QB rating allowed by Green Bay, a stat wiseguys love, is just 64, nearly 20 points better than the Steelers. And in one more game than Pittsburgh, the Packers have given up just eight more total points.
As Fezzik pointed out to me last night, this Green Bay team "is a juggernaut."
It's also the Super Bowl favorite.

[Robust]

I like over 44.. but waiting for maybe a half point or more..

only reason I like it is i foresee interceptions/turnovers with 2 tds scored from them.. then regular scoring.. no ints or turnovers, it stays under because of the two very good defenses..

Robust