I will keep this quick and then flush it all out as I respond to questions, comments or thoughts on the thread.
Quickly, the realities are these:
Green Bay at Chicago
The field slows down the pass rush and hurts some of the superior mobility of Aaron Rodgers as well. Does it happen to Cutler too? Probably. Still, the two biggest concepts in this game are the fact that it is DIVISIONAL, the teams know each other, and it makes me wonder: Will Green Bay play into the psychological, "This game should be close because it's the NFC championship, we are at Chicago, our past few games against each other have been close, etc."
I don't see how Cutler can possibly do that well in this game unless they overexaggerate the run and keep it away from Aaron Rodgers. If the Bears get down early and abandon the run in any way, Cutler will be crushed, and the Packers will win going away.
Given the elements and the mindset, I can see a fair portion of these games in which Chicago plays deliberately. I'm not sure that I trust the Chicago coaching so much to put this kind of faith in them, however. I think you can argue that Green Bay is superior BOTH offensively AND defensively, so I just can't take them, even at +4, which the line will be at by game time.
At -3 I would absolutely play this game but the current line of -3.5 with added juice or even 4 just makes me a bit skittish given what we saw last week with divisional foes NYJ and NE. Sometimes the psychology and knowing the other team really does matter. That said, again, GB is the only one here who can blow the other team out. this game remains a teaser prop, and a fairly confident one at that.
NY Jets at Pittsburgh
The quick thing didn't work so well when writing the above, so I might as well flush this one out.
The Jets are coming off an emotional win. As above, the divisional thing no longer works in their favor. This is bigger than people realize. What else is just as big? The difference in the type of QB Roethlisberger is. Coverage means less to a team like Pittsburgh, because Ben comes up big on 3rd down and has run for first downs often this year in clutch situations. Will the Jets get that much pressure, again? I don't see them getting enough to matter given Ben's ability to fend off tacklers and run for 1st downs.
Not to be understressed, Pittsburgh's defense, @ home defense, is so much better than Indy or NE, the Jets and Sanchez are really in for it. They'll stop the run, as they always do, and then I foresee them really disrupting Sanchez top to bottom. I'd be very surprised if he has a good game in this environment.
It sets up nicely for the the home team. I would give the 3.5 and feel fine. I personally am buying the half to -3 for (-130) just because it seems right to do.
Ultimately, here are my recommended plays:
Pittsburgh -3 (-130), give the -3.5 if you have to
2 team 7 point teaser, Green Bay +3.5 and Pittsburgh +3.5 (I like this one big)
2 team 7 point play on the UNDER 51 and UNDER 46
Finally, for you odds junkies:
4 prop parlay ---> GB -200 with Pitt -195 with UNDER 44 with UNDER 39 (+725)
My best,
Stackin'Green
Quickly, the realities are these:
Green Bay at Chicago
The field slows down the pass rush and hurts some of the superior mobility of Aaron Rodgers as well. Does it happen to Cutler too? Probably. Still, the two biggest concepts in this game are the fact that it is DIVISIONAL, the teams know each other, and it makes me wonder: Will Green Bay play into the psychological, "This game should be close because it's the NFC championship, we are at Chicago, our past few games against each other have been close, etc."
I don't see how Cutler can possibly do that well in this game unless they overexaggerate the run and keep it away from Aaron Rodgers. If the Bears get down early and abandon the run in any way, Cutler will be crushed, and the Packers will win going away.
Given the elements and the mindset, I can see a fair portion of these games in which Chicago plays deliberately. I'm not sure that I trust the Chicago coaching so much to put this kind of faith in them, however. I think you can argue that Green Bay is superior BOTH offensively AND defensively, so I just can't take them, even at +4, which the line will be at by game time.
At -3 I would absolutely play this game but the current line of -3.5 with added juice or even 4 just makes me a bit skittish given what we saw last week with divisional foes NYJ and NE. Sometimes the psychology and knowing the other team really does matter. That said, again, GB is the only one here who can blow the other team out. this game remains a teaser prop, and a fairly confident one at that.
NY Jets at Pittsburgh
The quick thing didn't work so well when writing the above, so I might as well flush this one out.
The Jets are coming off an emotional win. As above, the divisional thing no longer works in their favor. This is bigger than people realize. What else is just as big? The difference in the type of QB Roethlisberger is. Coverage means less to a team like Pittsburgh, because Ben comes up big on 3rd down and has run for first downs often this year in clutch situations. Will the Jets get that much pressure, again? I don't see them getting enough to matter given Ben's ability to fend off tacklers and run for 1st downs.
Not to be understressed, Pittsburgh's defense, @ home defense, is so much better than Indy or NE, the Jets and Sanchez are really in for it. They'll stop the run, as they always do, and then I foresee them really disrupting Sanchez top to bottom. I'd be very surprised if he has a good game in this environment.
It sets up nicely for the the home team. I would give the 3.5 and feel fine. I personally am buying the half to -3 for (-130) just because it seems right to do.
Ultimately, here are my recommended plays:
Pittsburgh -3 (-130), give the -3.5 if you have to
2 team 7 point teaser, Green Bay +3.5 and Pittsburgh +3.5 (I like this one big)
2 team 7 point play on the UNDER 51 and UNDER 46
Finally, for you odds junkies:
4 prop parlay ---> GB -200 with Pitt -195 with UNDER 44 with UNDER 39 (+725)
My best,
Stackin'Green
