Good Tom Brady prop

[70kgman]

What will he throw first:

TD (-280)
INT

Why is this so low? Just do the math. Brady has averaged 9 TD's to every 1 interception this season, and the last 11 games he has 26TD, 0INT. Am I missing something or is this prop at that price a steal?

[samdapatriotsfan]

They are thinking that what goes up, must come down. So statistically every throw that Brady completes increases the % that he will throw an interception on the next pass.

[Dirty Bay Player]

Statistically that's not true. Flipping 10 heads in a row does not change the probability of the next flip (still 50 / 50). Just like the fact that red hit 25 times in a row on the roulette wheel doesn't make it any more likely that black will hit.

[Prop Bet Master]

That's a great price if you don't mind laying the chalk. There's a good chance he won't throw an interception the entire game, let alone before he throws a touchdown pass! That's one of those hidden gems. Great bet!

[Stringer Bell]

good bet man, I like that.

[Gilly86]

oops

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Ooops.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[Prop Bet Master]

Didn't see that one coming!

[ldog74]

way to much juice to play a prop like this... Hope you stayed away

[70kgman]

I didn't stay away. Oh well. Still think it was easily a +EV wager. Just didn't pan out.

[Cap dat 4ss]

They are thinking that what goes up, must come down. So statistically every throw that Brady completes increases the % that he will throw an interception on the next pass.

This isn't how statistics work. Each pass is its own event. Just cause he goes 500 passes without an interception doesn't mean the 501st pass attempt has a higher % of being picked than the 1st.

[fishmonger]

gamblers fallacy worked this time