NFL Divisional Playoffs Weekend 1/15-1/16/11 - Ea$y Green

[StackinGreen]

Gentlemen,

I have the selections ready for this week. The only question now is how deep I go after taking it down last week.

I'm throwing a shout out to Maxlock and Riggs who have been very solid recently, I just was tipped to Riggs recently by Max who I communicate with intermittently. I know he is away but he says he is coming with picks soon.

As I said, it's time for me to withdraw but I will release to anyone who specifically asks. I've done my due diligence and there is nothing more for me to prove.

I hope you find the Ea$y green this weekend.

My best,

The Stacker

[gilbert91016]

Bol this week!!

[StackinGreen]

Thanks, my friend. I love it when a plan comes together. Someone around here thinks I'm gonna get "buried." He obviously doesn't know anything about me.

Best wishes to all.

[Black Hills]

Hey Stacking, Ive been checking you out for a couple weeks....ur sizzling..Whats it look like for wk 19 from your vantage point ??

[StackinGreen]

I've told others to PM me, which is fine. I'm not really gonna post publicly anymore, it's not about arrogance or boasting; I think you can understand. I've proved what I needed to, that's all. I guess I could be convinced to post if someone greases my palm

[Grits n' Gravy]

Congrats on the nice run. Just took a look at it. Seems we were on a lot of the same sides. Keep up the good work and best of luck.

[IHateFixed]

Hey StackGMan, FTA ( F_u_c_K_Them_All ). I see many phonies in this forum. Just ignore them and do your positive things for your followers. I have not seen you mislead anyone.

[StackinGreen]

Thanks boys. We're gonna get'em again this week!

[Dexter]

I've told others to PM me, which is fine. I'm not really gonna post publicly anymore, it's not about arrogance or boasting; I think you can understand. I've proved what I needed to, that's all. I guess I could be convinced to post if someone greases my palm

tout alert

[Crazygamble]

good luck bro

[StackinGreen]

Dexter, I don't mind you posting if you contribute something. Deal?

What's the point in stirring up garbage? I don't get it. If you already dislike me or think I'm BS, I find I hard to believe that you'll like me all of a sudden, no matter how many winners I come up with.

Am I wrong?

[Sunde91]

Liked your picks, then you went tout cause of one hot run

[Dexter]

Dexter, I don't mind you posting if you contribute something. Deal?

What's the point in stirring up garbage? I don't get it. If you already dislike me or think I'm BS, I find I hard to believe that you'll like me all of a sudden, no matter how many winners I come up with.

Am I wrong?

i just dislike slimy touts....no hard feelings.

i dont like that you feel big enough to not share your plays anymore to make a quick buck. you might fool a few young novices with your slick used car salesman talk, but you wont fool the majority. especially after i call you out for being a slimy wannabe tout.

come back next year - keep an accurate record all year and i will have respect for you.

[Dexter]

Liked your picks, than you went tout cause of one hot run

nah, 20-30 plays is a good sample size...

[StackinGreen]

I'm not going anywhere. Picks in a second ...

[StackinGreen]

Here are the plays, but first some thoughts on the weekend

My thoughts on the matchups:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The first consideration is the QB matchup, since it is always the most impactful position in sports: Flacco vs. Big Ben. Flacco's struggles in Pittsburgh, albeit in close defeats, are well covered. Immediately this springs the edge to Pittsburgh, especially in a bye-week spot at home. My feeling for the whole week is that everyone is jumping on Baltimore as the sexy "upset" pick. Hell, I picked Green Bay over Baltimore at year's beginning in the Super Bowl. But part of me likes the contrarian play, the home team rested, healthier, being just a little bit better running and throwing (Baltimore is more susceptible to the pass than they have been historically). Wallace can stretch the field and Ward is always the dangerous outlet. The key will be the Baltimore start and the pressure that Pittsburgh brings. I think Pittsburgh has a slight edge on most of the angles here, which will push them over the top. My line is -3.5 which I don't think is a significant enough advantage to let action ride, especially since I like other games more. Remember, if you don't love something, why bother? The desire just to have action cuts into your long term return; it ain't worth it.

Lean Pittsburgh, I don't blame people for laying 3 but I will not lay 3.5. My money line isn't particularly appetizing at -180 so I'm going to stay away, except for teasers. Best guess? Pittsburgh by 4-7 points.

Green Bay at Atlanta

Much to the misunderstanding of detractors, I have had Green Bay on an NFC championship bet since before the Giants game, locked in at 24-1. So my faith in this team is not new, by any stretch. I had them as my play of the year last week and we all saw what happened. The reality is that Philadelphia was lucky to even be close. With that win under the belt, Rodgers activation energy was accomplished. Atlanta has weapons but the Green Bay D is still underrated and if you recall the last time the teams met, ATL couldn't do much, taking advantage of a Rodgers fumble at the 1. The key was that they were statistically beaten --- soundly.

It's not easy for any team to prepare of Capers schemes OR Rodgers big play capability. I'm not necessarily buying into another big performance from Starks but think about the precedent of newfound rookie running and a team catching fire --- it happens. The carpet will only help and as long as Green Bay doesn't continue with the case of the dropsies, I see them winning outright, although this'll have much more to do with defense than Offense. Green Bay outright and in teasers as the biggest play of the week. Best guess? Packers take it by 4.

Seattle at Chicago

I like the energized Seattle. I said last week that the corollary of Arizona/Carolina from a few years back was a good one: look what happened. The biggest thing here is that I think Hasselbeck has another good game. Why? The pass rush will be slowed by the weird Chicago turf / field playing conditions. Can the Bears blow them out? Yes, Hester and that starting field position will be very problematic and Tatupu is now a ?. Again, checking my old plays, recognize that I rode Seattle 4 weeks straight with OVERs and they have gone OVER now 7 weeks in a row. Chicago is clearly the better team but they can get in shootouts too. I was very surprised that the line opened at -10 and if you play a side, my lean is to Seattle +points. Given my analysis though, everything points to CHI/SEA OVER 41. No need to worry about sides here. Hit the OVER hard.

NY Jets at New England

Before the Jets at Colts game I asked myself, when the Jets win, what will the line be at New England? I said 8.5 and there it is. I personally think it is a very solid line. With all of the Cromartie and Ryan shenanigans I have been pushing towards more of a New England lean but not just because of that. What is it that is so detrimental for the Jets here? The last blowout game? No. Sanchez? Close, but not really even that. It is the NY Jets pass rush. Even though the Jets were the better team at the Colts did you notice that they just couldn't get to Manning? Obviously they cover well, so they were able to accomplish several things. Ryan is scaring me again this week, made some bad calls at Indy, and now his players are talking garbage going into a Lion's Den? If he tries to bring extra pressure he's playing right into Brady's hands. I'm leaning to New England here, but as I said, I don't throw out my initial impressions of the lines easily, so I will lay low here.

In summary, my opinions (not recommended plays):

Pittsburgh if you get -3
Green Bay + points and/or +120
Seattle +10
New England -8.5

I am on record, and I suggest these plays as high expected return wagers:

Green Bay +120

CHI/SEA OVER 41

2 team 6.5 point teaser (-120)
GB +9 with Chicago/Seattle OVER 34.5

3 team 6.5 point teaser (+160)
Green Bay +9 with CHI/SEA OVER 34.5 with Pittsburgh +3.5

Best wishes this weekend, enjoy the games, and be good.

[UnderAndOver]

Holy shit! Not sure what happenned but the points pour out like crazy. I guess my pc loves you. BOL

[StackinGreen]

Finally, since this is my thread, I figured I'd quash all doubt. Have I lost before? Yes. Will I lose again? Yes. Let's hope it's not this week, though.

BUT

When I've had the runs I've had, I find it unfair that others (really only one guy) try to misrepresent it. Forgetting the 10 in a row thread which is well documented, here are the final links to prove the one sided hackjob attempted is nothing more:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/857548-what-3-games-do-you-like-week.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/821553-what-your-best-plays-week-13-a.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/852334-superbowl-predictions.html

Max knows I nabbed 24:1 on Green Bay pre-Giants game, because I told him so. To act like I haven't been on that team, let alone following it all year, is ridiculous.

When you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything.

Now, let's get back to business.

Best of luck to all today.

[StackinGreen]

Holy shit! Not sure what happenned but the points pour out like crazy. I guess my pc loves you. BOL

20 or 60 (or even 0) points ...

You're still the man.

---

Anyone interested in halftime thoughts today? Since I'm getting squeezed a bit and not touching the Steelers game line (for me it's 3.5) I might jump on at half ...

Best to all

[Dexter]

edit...we're cool

[Dexter]

.......................

[Dexter]

hey stackin - we had the same preseason forecast...packers over ravens. lol

[StackinGreen]

What other people do or say has nothing to do with my picks or analysis. Are you a moderator for SBR? I'm not aware of that. I haven't done anything wrong. Right now it seems that you are just dropping bombs on thread trying to get vigilante justice. The problem has been that you don't have support for your position.

If I've been lucky, just say, "I think you've been lucky and it won't continue." You can just leave it at that. I don't have a problem with that. But you've taken it to multiple posts on multiple threads.

I just PM'ed you. Nothing is personal here. I've already forgotten about it. Now if you please, refrain from posting unless it's about opinions on games, which are welcome.

[Justa Buck]

I like the Green Bay ML

[StackinGreen]

I'd take Pitt -6 here at halftime.

[StackinGreen]

It looks like another great weekend ...

[Prospects_]

Hey Stackin, is the over still a play at the current line of 43 -44 ??? I have a local and it will be with the current line.

[5zstars]

Ttt

[StackinGreen]

Hey Stackin, is the over still a play at the current line of 43 -44 ??? I have a local and it will be with the current line.

Sorry, haven't been around since I had a late night ...

What did you decide to do? Bears with a quick strike.

[5zstars]

I took Bears and the ov 43.

[Prospects_]

Dang, I took over 43.5 so this is definetly not looking too good....

[StackinGreen]

That's how it's going, boys.

[Dexter]

I am on record, and I suggest these plays as high expected return wagers:

Green Bay +120

CHI/SEA OVER 41

2 team 6.5 point teaser (-120)
GB +9 with Chicago/Seattle OVER 34.5

3 team 6.5 point teaser (+160)
Green Bay +9 with CHI/SEA OVER 34.5 with Pittsburgh +3.5

Best wishes this weekend, enjoy the games, and be good.

sick weekend sgreen...good job

[StackinGreen]

Thanks boss.

[aznjeff07]

congrats. you've been on a hot streak ; it's just too bad i haven't been tailing.