Chiefs/Ravens analysis and pick

Wulfman14 · 01-06-11, 12:53 PM

NFL WildCard - Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

No one would have thought that the Chiefs would be in the playoffs at the end of the season. However they opened strong and for the first few games their defense looked impossible to score on. The Chiefs struggled towards the end of the season though and especially in the final week against the Raiders. If anything at least that last game showed that the Chiefs are beatable at Arrowhead. This matchup shows the flaws in NFL playoff seeding. The Ravens have won 2 more games than the Chiefs this season but because the Chiefs won their division, they have the home field advantage. The Chiefs finished the regular season a stellar 7-1 at home. But Sunday's game against the Raiders did expose certain flaws that the Chiefs will need to address if they stand a chance against the Ravens. The Chief's offensive line was manhandled by the Raiders on Sunday. Now they will be up against a far more aggressive defensive line and the dangerous tandem of line backer Ray Lews and safety Ed Reed.
Joe Flacco has shown that he can be a dangerous passer at times. He struggled in both games against the Bengals which is a bit puzzling given that the Bengals defense has been conceding an average of 24.7 ppg. But Flacco has been effective for the majority of the season. The Ravens fought till the end in losses against the Patriots and Falcons, the two teams with the best records in the NFL respectively, losing both games by only a combined 8 points. In both those games Flacco had a passer rating of over 100. He remains unfazed in important games and he must play big on Sunday to ease the pressure off the Baltimore defense. Both Flacco and Cassel have nearly identical passer ratings. The Ravens brought in Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason to bring more firepower to this Baltimore offense. They have combined to do just that as each have over 800 yards receiving. Ray Rice has been the primary running back for the Ravens and has over 1200 yards rushing on the season.
The emergence of young quarterback Matt Cassel has been a pleasant surprise for the Chiefs this season. Receiver Dwayne Bowe and running back Jamaal Charles have been key contributors to this explosive Kansas City offense.
So what are we going to see in this match up ? I expect a physical game with both running backs getting a lot of carries. Jamaal Charles is the reason the Chiefs are the number one rushing team in the NFL. Although Cassel has been accurate when passing the ball, the Chiefs still rank 30th in the league in passing offense.The Baltimore passing game is ranked 21st in the NFL and they are 14th in rushing. THe Ravens will expect the Chiefs to run the ball and run often. They will stack the box and dare Cassel to throw against them. As long as the Ravens can prevent Charles from having a big day, they have a good chance of winning this game. Flacco has more than enough weapons in Todd Heap, Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason to move the chains and get into the end zone. He also has a potent Ray RIce at his disposal so the Baltimore offense can mix it up a lot and leave the Chiefs defense guessing whether they will run or pass the ball.
The Chiefs led the NFL in rushing and the Ravens are 5th in the league in defending against the run. I expect the Ravens to hold Charles in check and for Flacco to have a big day and pass for over 250 yards. For all you bettors out there get on this one early as I expect line movement as Sunday approaches. If you can get the Ravens at -2.5 then jump on it. This line opened at -1 for the Ravens and I expect it to go to -3 or even -3.5 by game time.

As long as you get Baltimore under a field goal that is the big play this weekend of all the games. The Ravens boast a strong defense and that will be the deciding factor in this game. By halftime I expect the Ravens to hold a strong lead and force Cassel to pass the ball in the second half. The Chiefs may try to come back in the fourth quarter but they will be down two scores and under pressure Cassel will turn the ball over and end any hopes for the Chiefs going further in the playoffs.
Baltimore -2.5 is the play guys. Good luck to all and enjoy the game !

Mr Handicapable · 01-06-11, 01:09 PM

I'm on Baltimore too! KC only has 1 legit threat downfield threat in Bowe....the Ravens will be loading the box all day! I'm not sold on Flacco but he doesn't have to carry the team in this one! I see the Ravens something like 24-13...maybe an alternate line play? As a Colts fan...I'd love to see Baltimore go to New England....they match up well with them....not that the Colts are a lock but thats for another thread!

thebestthereis · 01-06-11, 02:06 PM

to me something smells in that game, everyone and more are gonna be on the ravens. if the line opened 3.5 i would side with the ravens, not here opening at a suspicious 2.5. pass for me but good luck!

D. Brackets · 01-06-11, 02:16 PM

Nice read!

Jakesteen · 01-06-11, 02:46 PM

As long as the pick is a winner the write up gets a 10 in my book.
The Ravens will win easily.

jagermeister1 · 01-06-11, 03:12 PM

I'm not trying to be a dick, just honest criticism. But I don't see much in your write-up that isn't Sportscenter obvious. You should try to find more obscure, lesser known facts to share. For instance, everybody who knows football understands that Reed and Lewis are a big part of the Ravens' D and that Bowe is good. But when you say that the Chiefs are top rushing, and Ravens are 5th in run D, you need to explain further WHY you believe they will hold the #1 rushing team in check. Most of your prognostication seems based on a hunch, which isn't too useful to most of the guys one here. I mean, EVERYBODY has a hunch. You need to differentiate yourself if you want to be selected.

Like I said, I'm just trying to provide constructive criticism, and I wish you the best of luck.

Btw, I agree with you for the most part. I'll be on the ravens, too.

McBa1n · 01-06-11, 05:15 PM

Not a bad write up, I agree with jagermeister's criticisms.
The format is a bit daunting as a reader - perhaps break things up a bit with some spaces between paragraphs, or create paragraphs.:>

I disagree on the point that Flacco has been effective most of the season. I think there's 2 big reasons why the Ravens did not live up to expectations. 1- Flacco hangs onto the ball too long and struggles when teams sit back on him - his accuracy has dipped this season and 2- The Ravens D is quite over rated and can be extremely vulnerable to an aggressive offense (Reed's health does help with that some).

Also, to back up your point about the Chiefs passing offense, which is a great point, you have to talk about their poor pass protection (especially at the tackles). Not so much is on Cassel's shoulders, so much as scheme and protection - they've both been questionable.

All in all, not a bad job at all. I wish you luck your writing goals and bagging a slot with SBR!

DMB40 · 01-06-11, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

to me something smells in that game, everyone and more are gonna be on the ravens. if the line opened 3.5 i would side with the ravens, not here opening at a suspicious 2.5. pass for me but good luck!

sunday night lined opened at -1 balt and now has gone to -3...

smarsh816 · 01-06-11, 11:05 PM

chiefs will win the chiefs should have won 3 of the early game bowe had 3 bad drops in the colts game and a game clinching 3rd down catch against the raiders then chiefs had a collapse against the texans

RussianMike · 01-07-11, 12:10 AM

Nice write up but u forgot to mention Baltimores other two losses were to NE by a FieldGoal, and early to Cinncy by 5, and that was early on before even Cincy realized how bad they really were. THE ONLY PLAYOFF TEAM KC HAS BEATEN ALL YEAR IS SEATTLE!!!! I'm betting 25% of my net worth on Baltimore, and hammering the under as well. Don't see KC scoring more than 10 points. Both teams ground and pound offense will eat ton of clock. Kids, this is the lead pipe, captain Kannoo lock of the century......... (for purposes of full disclosure I have went broke 6 times after uttering that phrase in the past 3 years). Ship it!!!

Wulfman14 · 01-07-11, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by jagermeister1

I'm not trying to be a dick, just honest criticism. But I don't see much in your write-up that isn't Sportscenter obvious. You should try to find more obscure, lesser known facts to share. For instance, everybody who knows football understands that Reed and Lewis are a big part of the Ravens' D and that Bowe is good. But when you say that the Chiefs are top rushing, and Ravens are 5th in run D, you need to explain further WHY you believe they will hold the #1 rushing team in check. Most of your prognostication seems based on a hunch, which isn't too useful to most of the guys one here. I mean, EVERYBODY has a hunch. You need to differentiate yourself if you want to be selected.

Like I said, I'm just trying to provide constructive criticism, and I wish you the best of luck.

Btw, I agree with you for the most part. I'll be on the ravens, too.

no offense taken. i made this thread to get feedback like this ! although i can delve deeper into this matchup with lesser known facts , i feel that the average reader who is just betting on the game would not want to be bored with any in depth , obscure facts that are not available on espn or foxsports. i feel they would want "sportscenter" type facts in a reader friendly format.

i agree with you jagermeister though about explaining the reason behind why I believe in the stated facts and to write with more certainty so it does not appear as if i have a "hunch".

thanks

Wulfman14 · 01-07-11, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by RussianMike

Nice write up but u forgot to mention Baltimores other two losses were to NE by a FieldGoal, and early to Cinncy by 5, and that was early on before even Cincy realized how bad they really were. THE ONLY PLAYOFF TEAM KC HAS BEATEN ALL YEAR IS SEATTLE!!!! I'm betting 25% of my net worth on Baltimore, and hammering the under as well. Don't see KC scoring more than 10 points. Both teams ground and pound offense will eat ton of clock. Kids, this is the lead pipe, captain Kannoo lock of the century......... (for purposes of full disclosure I have went broke 6 times after uttering that phrase in the past 3 years). Ship it!!!

mike - i believe i mentioned the loss to New England and Atlanta. also briefly addressed the struggles Flacco had in both games against Cincinnati this year.

good luck this sunday i have bet big on these ravens. hopefully they cash for us.

Squareguy · 01-07-11, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by smarsh816

chiefs will win the chiefs should have won 3 of the early game bowe had 3 bad drops in the colts game and a game clinching 3rd down catch against the raiders then chiefs had a collapse against the texans

There couldn't be any bias in your post could there?

HauntingTheHoly · 01-07-11, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by smarsh816

chiefs will win the chiefs should have won 3 of the early game bowe had 3 bad drops in the colts game and a game clinching 3rd down catch against the raiders then chiefs had a collapse against the texans

Oh yeah you're right, I had forgotten about all of this! The Chiefs will win for sure!

Gilly86 · 01-07-11, 08:52 AM

Since you are trying to get a writing position here and not just typing out your analysis as an average poster, you may want to consider working on your grammar, or at the very least running a spell/grammar check on your article before submitting.

RussianMike · 01-07-11, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by Wulfman14

mike - i believe i mentioned the loss to New England and Atlanta. also briefly addressed the struggles Flacco had in both games against Cincinnati this year.

good luck this sunday i have bet big on these ravens. hopefully they cash for us.

True that, damn that white widow had a muthfuka on swerve last night. I saw u only mentioned two losses when the Cincy and Pitt losses were also hardfought and tough games. Either way we concurring on dis shit right heeeere. Gotta check in with my books cause that widow mighta got me to 40%. damn i hate when that happens even when its a lock.

Mr Handicapable · 01-07-11, 10:35 AM

Chiefs recently signed WR Kevin Curtis...that says they have NOTHING on the other side of Bowe and they know it! I'm no Ravens fan but Bolden is a bigtime playoff performer here that will step up when the Ravens need him...not to mention Housyourmama as well! The Ravens have more weapons, more experience, and have the matchups in their favor! Teams that spread the field and throw it around can beat Baltimore....the Colts have beaten them 7 or 8 in a row but the Chiefs are not one of those teams!

Wulfman14 · 01-09-11, 03:01 PM

so far looking good guys....