Happy 2011 year to everyone, as you might have seen, I've been making threads with my plays in last few days and with new year I'm making one thread for each sport, for easier tracking and searching picks purpose. GOOD LUCK!
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Game: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (Sunday 1/2 19:00 CET)
I made a bet on this one yesterday, however current -5 line is still playable because in my view Patriots will win this one by at least touchdown. The difference in quality between these two is sure, so I won't say much about it - the line is all about motivation in meaningless Week 17 for both teams. Coach Belichick is well known for NOT resting his players and it should be the case this season as well, especially that Patriots have been red-hot lately and could have lost momentum with a loss in here, no matter the fact if it's with backup or starters. Tom Brady will start the game and he should kill Dolphins secondary, so although in late 3rd or early 4th quarter he'll be off, he should assure Patriots the win earlier (while backup might not lose a quarter either). Dolphins are probably less motivated than Patriots, the season was disappointing, coach will be fired probably and there were huge problems at quarterback position. Generally speaking guests have got no weapons to score much in here, so something like 24-10 is expected.
Pick: 1 unit on 304 New England Patriots -4 @ 1.909Comment -
Game: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1/2 22:15 CET)
This one has a blowout written all over it, so however theoretically it's a divisional battle and potential play-offs match-up, I don't see this one as a Rivalry because only one team will be motivated in here. The Bears will rest their best players for sure and however coach didn't say that already, he'll do that. He can't announce that due to situation with Giants (they need a Bears win to make the play-offs) but it's a meaningless game and surely Bears doesn't want to get hurt. On the other hand it's a must-win for the Packers and with Aaron Rodgers back, they're in my opinion, the best team in the NFL alongside Patriots. They crushed Giants last week in extremely important game, looking totally flawless and I also rate the as a better team than Bears overall. With opponents being unmotivated and not with all starters, even -10 spread doesn't look scary. Statement win for Packers before the play-offs, blowout expected definitely.
Pick: 1 unit on 318 Green Bay Packers -10 @ 2.000Comment -
Game: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1/2 19:00 CET)
This is a huge spread, however I think that it'll be also a huge win for the hosts because it's one of the biggest missmatches that would happen this season. Falcons, who'll be top seed in the NFC with a win, at home where Matt Ryan and whole team is a beast are facing the worst team in the league - I wouldn't be afraid even with -17 in here. Panthers offense doesn't exist, so adding the fact Falcons defense is rock solid, I doubt guests will achieve double digit number of points (if so i'll be 10 or 13), while Matt Ryan will have an easy day against opponents secondary. Plus Michael Turner won't have troubles against weak rushing defense as well. Of course in case of a big lead best players might be rested in second half but I don't think backdoor might happen in here because Falcons backup are probably same quality as Panthers starters. And let's not forget Panthers are 'fighting' for number one overall draft pick, so I'm not buying that they'll be fired up or so in here.
Pick: 1 unit on 324 Atlanta Falcons -14 @ 1.963Comment -
Game: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Monday 1/3 02:30 CET)
Play-offs at the stake, two quite equal teams and hosts are getting 3 points as an underdogs on the most difficult stadium in the NFL? I don't get it and Seahawks are an automatical bet for me. Seattle fans are amazing, referees are under pressure and Seahawks opponents at Qwest Field are by far most penalised in here (false starts, pass interferences, personal fouls). Pete Carroll is great coach and he'll make his players looking like their lifes are depending on that game. Of course Rams have been looking better this season but Bradford is still a rookie quarterback and he wasn't ever under such pressure. No matter if Rams win this one by double digit or Seahawks win SU, I HAVE TO play this one and it will remain a valuable bet. Nailbitter expected and in crucial moments crowd might be X-factor.
Pick: 1 unit on 328 Seattle Seahawks +3 @ 1.909Comment -
teasing NE and GB.. I am going with the RAMS su. glComment -
2-0 on the early games, great start of the Sunday
(hope I won't jinx any of these games as 4th quarters are still on)
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Previews to be added later in the week, just catching the odds because should go against my calls in at least three match-ups in my opinion.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (Saturday 1/8 22:30 CET)
Pick: 1 unit on 102 Seattle Seahawks +11 @ 1.909
Game: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1/9 02:00 CET)
Pick: 1 unit on 104 Indianapolis Colts -2 @ 1.909
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 1/9 19:00 CET)
Pick: 2 units on 105 Baltimore Ravens -2 @ 1.926
Game: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1/9 22:30 CET)
Pick: 2 units on 107 Green Bay Packers +3 @ 1.862Comment -
I like all the picks besides GB. Their offense has been extermely shaky lately and I don't think they'll be able to put up points with vick and the eaglesComment -
i think kc is the play..Comment -
Don't overreact to the Bears game. Tampa 2 defense of Chicago always gives us fits. Offense gets back on track this week against an undersized front of the Eagles. Rodgers will torch the blitz, best in the league against the blitz.Originally posted by JD426
Vick and his offense will need to put 27 or more to win, they haven't won a game all year when they haven't scored at least 26. Don't see it happening against the #2 scoring defense in the league.Comment