The Myth of Low Scoring Games and Running the Ball

[brahmabull117]

I really don't get it, why the hell do so many people on this site think that running the ball = low scoring games??


let's look at the top 4 teams in the league this year at running the ball and their over/under record


Jaguars - 9 - 4 O/U (9 out of 13 games went over)
Philadelphia - 10 - 4
Oakland Raiders - 9 - 5
Kansas City - 6-8

so the majority of the games for 3 out of the 4 teams have all gone over and, in fact, the combined Over/Under of the 4 teams is 34-21 (62% winning percentage). Kansas City is the only team to go consistently under but a lot of that was the injury to their QB and what not

I mean if you just play the over on every one of these teams while avoiding the obvious no play situations (the chiefs playing at San Diego without their starting QB, Raiders playing at The Steelers), you would easily win 64-66% of your bets

so, for the love of god, stop with the nonsense of "Derp derp they're gonna run the ball so we are gonna see a low scoring game". It is stupid and contradicts all fact

[V2daTizzo]

Jags and Eagles aren't exactly run first offenses. I wouldn't say this is a myth if the team's defenses are good and they run the ball

[GunShard]

I say low scoring games are when both teams have high defenses against opponents main offense.

[brahmabull117]

Jags and Eagles aren't exactly run first offenses. I wouldn't say this is a myth if the team's defenses are good and they run the ball

jags aren't run first offense??? u fukkin kidding me??


jags seem to run the ball 40 times every game and maybe throw it 20-25 times


dude I can go down the list, the majority of the top running teams in the league have great Over records this year


even the jets with a crappy QB, great run game and great defense are 10-4 on the Over/Under this season

[Indecent]

This year has been different from most in terms of over/under percentages. Did you try last year or any years before that?

A sample size of one year means nothing.

[Phillth]

Running the ball DOES equate to a lower scoring game on avg. You have to remember the total line is adjusted to account for this. 34 pts scored on a game total of 32 is still a low scoring game despite it going over.

[brahmabull117]

Running the ball DOES equate to a lower scoring game on avg. You have to remember the total line is adjusted to account for this. 34 pts scored on a game total of 32 is still a low scoring game despite it going over.

the majority of the big running teams in the league average plenty of points