How to win every day...RELIABILITY!!!

[Pride>UFC]

Bare with me, this might be somewhat a long read...

So 3 years ago, in my "Statistics and reliability" class, the first concept we were taught is that in order for something to be reliable, it must work 85% of the time. So as a degenerate gambler, I thought to myself, "the chances of picking a game right is 50%, the chances of picking 2 games right is 25%, 3 games is 12.5%, etc..."

Similarly, the chances of picking 3 games "wrong" consecutively is 12.5%, meaning that there's an 87.5% chance that out of 3 games, you will pick at least one game right...so I tested this theory for about 12 days and won 30 bucks each day... but since I didn't have a huge bank roll I bet $30, if I lost, I doubled it to $60, and if I lost that, I bet %120. The only problem is that you cannot get greedy. Once you have won your bet for the day, you must wait until the next day. Also, if you lose all three bets in one day, that's your own damn fault! If you can't pick one out of 3, that's pathetic...In addition, you cannot have more than one bet occurring at the same time because this is a sequential formula, meaning you must first know the result before placing your next wager.

So basically, depending on whatever bankroll you may have, anyone SHOULD be able to win money 87.5% of the time on any given day if they follow the 3-game-per day formula.

[BMaddz]

i see what your saying but no, there's a 50% chance u hit each game just because you lost 2 previous bets doesn't mean the chances of getting the 3rd right is 87.5% cause it's not its still 50%

[Lockitup1x]

You should test this on a roulette wheel (Hint: bring duffel bags for all the money you will be carrying out of the casino).

[Bluehorseshoe]

So you've invented the "Due Theory"?

[RubberKettle]

Very basic chase system being employed here. I have personally always been against them, but maybe we have ourselves the next Morrison.

[mv09]

You should test this on a roulette wheel (Hint: bring duffel bags for all the money you will be carrying out of the casino).

This.

If you flip a coin and it lands on tails 10 straight times.. The chances for a head is not 99.98%. It's 50%

Youve gotten lucky and hope it continues.

[chopperocker]

i believe it works best in NHL & MLB... lel the chase begin............ lol

[Pride>UFC]

i see what your saying but no, there's a 50% chance u hit each game just because you lost 2 previous bets doesn't mean the chances of getting the 3rd right is 87.5% cause it's not its still 50%

yeah but there's a 25% chance that you hit one of your first two...and a 12.5 % chance that you hit one of your first 3...

[PSABB]

And this theory, ladies and gentlemen, is a Martingale system, which consists of doubling up after your losses hoping for the eventual win, in which case you'll make a small profit. The problem with this theory is that, quite simply, you need a shitload of cash to make it work. Someone above mentioned roulette....I personally have been at the tables and watched as red came up five times in a row. The guy next to me starting placing bets on black, figuring it was "due". I believe he started with $100 on the first roll, then put down $200 on the next. Well, you do the math and see how much he lost, because I was there when red came up 11 TIMES in a row.

Now, you're talking about roulette, which has a shade under 50% on the red and black (don't forget those nasty little 0 and 00's). Imagine trying this dumbass approach on a sporting event with multiple players on the team, different coaching styles, injury issues, scheduling issues, home vs. away....oh, and don't forget that little thing called the point spread.

So now, you're not "guaranteed" to win 1 out of every 3 bets you make. Great cappers have hit cold streaks lasting a lot longer than that. What you are guaranteed, though, is to go broke if you follow the theory of someone who obviously failed their Statistics and Reliability class.

[Vesuvius]

good luck in the long run.

[jsmithj88]

yeah but there's a 25% chance that you hit one of your first two...and a 12.5 % chance that you hit one of your first 3...

this is just a chase method
wat do u do if u go 0-3?

[RubberKettle]

this is just a chase method
wat do u do if u go 0-3?

You up the bets and reload. Thats how a chase works.

[Pride>UFC]

this is just a chase method wat do u do if u go 0-3?

you lose lol...this is for people who are confident that they can pick at least 1 out of 3

[Pride>UFC]

And this theory, ladies and gentlemen, is a Martingale system, which consists of doubling up after your losses hoping for the eventual win, in which case you'll make a small profit. The problem with this theory is that, quite simply, you need a shitload of cash to make it work. Someone above mentioned roulette....I personally have been at the tables and watched as red came up five times in a row. The guy next to me starting placing bets on black, figuring it was "due". I believe he started with $100 on the first roll, then put down $200 on the next. Well, you do the math and see how much he lost, because I was there when red came up 11 TIMES in a row. Now, you're talking about roulette, which has a shade under 50% on the red and black (don't forget those nasty little 0 and 00's). Imagine trying this dumbass approach on a sporting event with multiple players on the team, different coaching styles, injury issues, scheduling issues, home vs. away....oh, and don't forget that little thing called the point spread. So now, you're not "guaranteed" to win 1 out of every 3 bets you make. Great cappers have hit cold streaks lasting a lot longer than that. What you are guaranteed, though, is to go broke if you follow the theory of someone who obviously failed their Statistics and Reliability class.

No I got a "B"

[SolidDala]

That B most certainly do not stand for binomial thats for sure..

[ShogunRua]

Bad idea. Do yourself a favor and DO NOT test this out. You may make a little money to begin with, but the probability of this working out in the long run is very very small.