You are an Idiot if you don't take the Over on Dallas/Philadelphia

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  • 4TH AND STUPID
    SBR MVP
    • 08-08-09
    • 2350

    #36
    Originally posted by Harry N. Lloyd
    Boyz,

    I will be playing the UNDER. It's a system play.....meets all the criteria for me. Doesn't necessarily make sense to the guys who look at the above-mentioned stats. It's called VARIANCE. When I made my own line on last week's KC/DENVER game, the projected total was 61 points. The same system kicked in and I bet the game under at 48-. The final score was 10-6. Look, they call it gambling for a reason. You guys go with the over, I will bet the under. Good luck.


    does your system involve jerking off onto a roulette board?


    systems dont win, unless they are related to public betting percentages. if you dont understand this by now, you will 30 years from now when you are looking back at all the 'near misses' in your degenerate career.
    Comment
    • brahmabull117
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-08-10
      • 8622

      #37
      Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID
      does your system involve jerking off onto a roulette board?


      systems dont win, unless they are related to public betting percentages. if you dont understand this by now, you will 30 years from now when you are looking back at all the 'near misses' in your degenerate career.
      Comment
      • flocko76
        SBR MVP
        • 10-01-10
        • 1447

        #38
        The eagles do have a tendency to give up a lot of points to elitish wide receivers (think tennessee and colts). even if they jump out big early they will let the cowboys back in the game. Roy williams is playing good lately.
        Comment
        • brahmabull117
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-08-10
          • 8622

          #39
          Originally posted by flocko76
          The eagles do have a tendency to give up a lot of points to elitish wide receivers (think tennessee and colts). even if they jump out big early they will let the cowboys back in the game. Roy williams is playing good lately.
          agreed, this defense really is not any good on the road. 32 points given up to Detroit in week 2

          this 50.5 line is an absolute gift...personally I'm gonna buy a point to make it 49.5 just so I'm not screwed if the final score is 27-23
          Comment
          • nunny
            SBR Hustler
            • 11-09-10
            • 76

            #40
            Im on the under. 51.5 at BetUs
            Comment
            • Harry N. Lloyd
              SBR MVP
              • 03-26-08
              • 4810

              #41
              Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID
              does your system involve jerking off onto a roulette board?


              systems dont win, unless they are related to public betting percentages. if you dont understand this by now, you will 30 years from now when you are looking back at all the 'near misses' in your degenerate career.
              Stupid,

              Who the hell made you the authority on what works and what doesn't? You must be some incredible prognosticator to know what I'll be feeling in 3 decades time. It so happens, I've been doing this for over 30 years and along the way I've recognized a few tendencies. The market has a way of correcting itself.
              When a team (ie, Dallas) has 9 consecutive games go over the total, sooner or later it's due to go under. And no, this is not like coin flips, because the posted totals are not fixed....they are constantly adjusted, in this case upwards. The average posted total for the first 3 games of Dallas's streak was 43-, for the next 3 it was 45, for the last 3 it's been 48.
              Now, just when every dimwit thinks the over is a "lock", the boys in Vegas set an impost of 51. It's gambling.....and it very well may go over again, but I will be playing the under.
              Comment
              • brahmabull117
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 11-08-10
                • 8622

                #42
                Originally posted by Harry N. Lloyd
                Stupid, Who the hell made you the authority on what works and what doesn't? You must be some incredible prognosticator to know what I'll be feeling in 3 decades time. It so happens, I've been doing this for over 30 years and along the way I've recognized a few tendencies. The market has a way of correcting itself. When a team (ie, Dallas) has 9 consecutive games go over the total, sooner or later it's due to go under. And no, this is not like coin flips, because the posted totals are not fixed....they are constantly adjusted, in this case upwards. The average posted total for the first 3 games of Dallas's streak was 43-, for the next 3 it was 45, for the last 3 it's been 48. Now, just when every dimwit thinks the over is a "lock", the boys in Vegas set an impost of 51. It's gambling.....and it very well may go over again, but I will be playing the under.

                you think 51 points is a high line for Mike Vick facing an absolutely atrocious Dallas defense?? Mike Vick might score 51+ points by himself


                BTW Asante Samuel missed practice today and will very possibly miss sunday's game. The last game without Asante Samuel on the road?? the eagles gave up 31 points to a mediocre Bears offense. Imagine how many points this red hot Dallas offense will score


                I can understand the people saying no play, but to play the UNDER in this game? absolutely ridiculous
                Comment
                • Harry N. Lloyd
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-26-08
                  • 4810

                  #43
                  Originally posted by brahmabull117
                  you think 51 points is a high line for Mike Vick facing an absolutely atrocious Dallas defense?? Mike Vick might score 51+ points by himself


                  BTW Asante Samuel missed practice today and will very possibly miss sunday's game. The last game without Asante Samuel on the road?? the eagles gave up 31 points to a mediocre Bears offense. Imagine how many points this red hot Dallas offense will score


                  I can understand the people saying no play, but to play the UNDER in this game? absolutely ridiculous

                  Giggles, Yeah I do think it's a pretty high line for the NFL......especially when you consider it's the HIGHEST POSTED TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!
                  Comment
                  • brahmabull117
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 8622

                    #44
                    Originally posted by Harry N. Lloyd
                    Giggles, Yeah I do think it's a pretty high line for the NFL......especially when you consider it's the HIGHEST POSTED TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!

                    this line could be 60 and I would still take it, 51 is absolutely nothing for these 2 teams


                    stop looking at this vegas betting line crap and actually look at the players and matchups playing on the field
                    Comment
                    • Landscaper
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-12-10
                      • 2712

                      #45
                      Originally posted by brahmabull117
                      this line could be 60 and I would still take it, 51 is absolutely nothing for these 2 teams


                      stop looking at this vegas betting line crap and actually look at the players and matchups playing on the field

                      Then why r u buying a point if your so confident
                      Comment
                      • brahmabull117
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 8622

                        #46
                        Originally posted by Landscaper
                        Then why r u buying a point if your so confident

                        I'm bracing for the absolute worst case scenario... on a big time parlay like I'm doing with this game, I'll easily sacrifice 400 dollars if it ensures that they will cover the total

                        50/51 point scores are very common in the NFL.... though I don't even know how this game will go below 60 with no Asante Samuel
                        Comment
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