Many of you know me, many despise me, many don't care either way...
In the past I used my excel system to predict winners when matched with certain trends.
Recently my system hit a cold streak so I gutted it. I took out the trends aspect and stop weighing it so heavily.
I also rely less on my simulations.
I began noticing that the Power Rankings in my system were the key to picking winners.
I then stumbled upon these amazing threads:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...ng-system.html
http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...ce-system.html
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...eet-picks.html
These guys do an amazing job and using my system, and theirs, I have been back to winning ways the last few weeks.
That said, cold streaks do happen.
Anyways, here's how it works.
When my Power Rankings have an Underdog ranked higher than a favorite, I play the UNDER.
When the Underdog is favored by more than one point in my power rankings, I make a play on the Dog.
When the power rankings have the DOG as a negative (if they are +3, I subtract the value of the teams power rankings), we play the under.
For example:
Atlanta v. New York +4
Lets say ATL ranking is 92 and NY ranking is 89. I add 3 points to NY for homecourt.
So its 92-92 = 0.
Then I subtract the spread which is 4 and NY suddenly is a -4 point favorite. I would make a play on them AND play the UNDER.
Its confusing but will eventually make sense.
I'll update plays whenever I can.
Tonights NFL plays are:
SF/Ari UNDER 41.5
-----------------------------
I also will have ncaa football and nba threads. check em out and good luck.
In the past I used my excel system to predict winners when matched with certain trends.
Recently my system hit a cold streak so I gutted it. I took out the trends aspect and stop weighing it so heavily.
I also rely less on my simulations.
I began noticing that the Power Rankings in my system were the key to picking winners.
I then stumbled upon these amazing threads:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...ng-system.html
http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...ce-system.html
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...eet-picks.html
These guys do an amazing job and using my system, and theirs, I have been back to winning ways the last few weeks.
That said, cold streaks do happen.
Anyways, here's how it works.
When my Power Rankings have an Underdog ranked higher than a favorite, I play the UNDER.
When the Underdog is favored by more than one point in my power rankings, I make a play on the Dog.
When the power rankings have the DOG as a negative (if they are +3, I subtract the value of the teams power rankings), we play the under.
For example:
Atlanta v. New York +4
Lets say ATL ranking is 92 and NY ranking is 89. I add 3 points to NY for homecourt.
So its 92-92 = 0.
Then I subtract the spread which is 4 and NY suddenly is a -4 point favorite. I would make a play on them AND play the UNDER.
Its confusing but will eventually make sense.
I'll update plays whenever I can.
Tonights NFL plays are:
SF/Ari UNDER 41.5
-----------------------------
I also will have ncaa football and nba threads. check em out and good luck.
glad to see u back TL! 
I'll b checking ur thread!
