NFL Week 12: Line movement info

[alex81]

I have been very successful lately by playing games Sunday morning that see significant line movement, 1 whole point at the very least. I find that every week there is a line or 2 that sees one way line movement throughout the week and then sees even more movement up to 24 hours before kickoff. Without going into excessive detail, a few examples are Dallas +11.5 vs Giants (week 10) and Baltimore -12.5 vs Carolina (week 11).

Here is what I noticed this week...

Minny -2, opened +2.5 = 4.5 pt movement
Vikings replaced Childress. I rest my case.

KC -2.5, opened -1 = 1.5 pt movement
A lot of experts expect K.C. to win this.

Jacksonville +7, opened +8 = 1 pt movement
Gmen are banged up and usually struggle at this point of the season.

These are 3 plays to monitor closely. I am all over Minny and definitely liking Jacksonville at this price. Not too sold on K.C. though so I probably will stay away.

There are a lot of lines that moved by only 0.5 a pt. I will follow them closely and post additional information on them tomorrow morning.

[chimp]

what is the record for games that fall under this situation the last few weeks?

[LT Profits]

I agree with your two choices and I like Seattle ML in the other game.

[alex81]

I'll be honest with u... I can't give u an actual record cuz I haven't had the time go and do some backtesting but from my personal experience the lines that move 1 side by at least 2 pts from opening to close in the nfl must hit about 2 out of 3 times or 66%.... That's y I'm really liking minny. When u think about it the action makes sense. Childress is gone. Apparently he was the cancer to the team.

[alex81]

That KC Seattle matchup is tough to call... It's really not easy to beat Seattle when they are at home.

[alex81]

Here is 2 other plays that I really like with only 0.5 pt line movement...

Carolina 9.5 - Panthers haven't covered 5 in a row but more importantly Cleveland as a 9.5 pt fave with Delhomme starting is an automatic fade!!

SD 2.5 - It takes a lot steam for oddsmakers to drop the number on a pt line. SD plays its best football at this point of the season and historically have had Indy's number.

[alex81]

*3 pt line

[thebestthereis]

I agree with your two choices and I like Seattle ML in the other game.

line makes no sense, why is seattle underdog at home? there is no explanation for this unless you have injuries. kc hasn't won any superbowls last time i checked and seattle is one of the best home teams/advantages in the nfl. kc is not a public team either. if i were setting this line seattle is a 2-2.5 favorites here without question.

[alex81]

good start as minny, carolina and jax all cover... hope sd cashes now

[alex81]

4-0

[bretb27]

well done alex

[HiTMaNN]

4-0

Congrats though you should have taken KC as the numbers showed you should have. Would have been 5 - 0

[alex81]

well I went with my gut on not playing kc. I'm gonna post again
for week 13. Tampa and St. Louis were also playable.