Steelers -6 Against Bills Predictions, Picks, Discussion

[kobebryant55]

I'm not trying to be a square. For every other game this week is so close I'd probably take the underdogs for the rest of the games to be quite honest. The only game I'm going to touch is this game. I can't see Pittsburgh not covering 6-7.5 (depending on your book and the way the line moves)

Buffalo is playing there best football of the season and they have played hard all season and while I think they have a shot here, they have a match up issue as far as defensing the run as they allow over 160 yards a game on the ground. If there is a team who loves to pound the ball it's the Pittsburgh Steelers and they will look to control the game that way and get the road cover.

The Buffalo Bills may be on a mini hot streak, winning their last two games and improving to an 2-8 record.But we're fooling ourselves if we are anticipating an upset in this game.
This is a "l-word kind of game" (no jynx) You can count on it. It's one thing when the Bills are going against a hapless defensive squad such as the Cincinnati Bengals, when they exploded for 35 second half points. But the Steelers are a much different and more viscous animal. The Steelers are just fresh off of shutting down Darren McFadden and the Oakland Raiders in Week 11. With a blend of scary and intimidating defense, as well as a potent offense. The Steelers should have it easy on Sunday.
Prediction: Steelers 24, Bills 13

[kobebryant55]

by the way i know i asked for all of your opinions but please dont go your a square, your dumb, bills on the ML because your dumb and are probably the same people who over thought and over analyzed the pats game and had detroit winning.. sheesh. not talking trash but dont just see this and go your a square bills ML your dumb. because that's ignorant and your just pretending your such a sharp better. at least give me some good facts and thoughts, thank you

oh and.. NFL Trend: Buffalo Bills are 0-3 ATS at home this season.

[herts9]

easiest game on the card this week...by far. have it in a 6-pt tease too...and pitt -1 on that is rather l-word-ish

[knelson]

I agree Steelers are a much superior team. However, you've got to be careful. Those Bills seem to play everyone tough, including the Ravens, who beat your Steelers.

[kobebryant55]

I agree Steelers are a much superior team. However, you've got to be careful. Those Bills seem to play everyone tough, including the Ravens, who beat your Steelers.

touche, touche... see thats why i like when someone actually just provides a fact instead of saying your a dumb square i can respect that and agree with it well said..

[kobebryant55]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5849496

oh and im on house money..... (thank you pats and jets)

[Dr.Money]

Looking at the numbers:

Bills Rushing yards this year: 1137
Steelers Rushing Yards this year: 1180
Bills Passsing Yards this year: 2037
Steelers Passing Yards this year: 2073
Bills total team td's: 27
steelers total team td's: 27
Bills avg. time of possession: 28:44 per game
steelers avg. time of possession: 30:26 per game
bills total offensive yards: 3174
Steelers total offensive yards: 3253
Bills 3rd down conversions: 57/138 (41.30%)
Steelers 3rd down conversions: 48/128 (37.5%)
Bills 4th down conversions: 6/16
Steelers 4th down conversions: 0/2


These teams have played the Bengals, Dolphins and Patriots each once this year so far.

The Ravens lost to New england 39-26
The Bills lost to New England 38-30

The ravens beat the Bengals 27-21
The Bills beat the Bengals 49-31

The ravens beat Miami 23-22
the Bills lost to Miami 15-10

Facing off in the points for vs points against the same opponents:
Ravens: 76 points scored - 82 scored against
Bills: 89 points scored - 84 Points against

the reason I bring these numbers up is simple, the general public thinks that this Steelers team is the best team in the AFC, and are pounding the crap out of the -7 against an up and coming Bills team, that is just starting to find themselves. [These guys in the locker room truly think they can win out and go 8-8. (No, I dont think they can do that,but I can see them, getting to 5 or 6 wins before the seasons out with the way they are playing)]

The bottom line is that these 2 teams match up pretty well against each other.
Steeler run defense is #1 in the league. Bills Run Defense is #32. advantage- steelers
Steelers pass defense is #22 in the league. Bills Pass defense is #9. advantage Bills

The key to this game for either side, is the secure the rock and not allow for turnover. (Pitts +10 in turnover department- Bills -6)

This game in my opinion will come down to the final possession, and the Steelers might well be looking towards next week, for that big match up with the Ravens in what should be a battle for 1st in the AFC north. The Bills travel to Minny next week and are playing for spots on next seasons' roster. A hungry team is a hungry team no matter how you cut the apple....this is gonna be one heck of a football game.

Steelers 27
Bills 23.


The over 43 is the best bet for this game in my opinion.
The Bills +7 ATS at home looks too juicy to not make a play on.
The Bills ML is a small but valued play. if this upset hits, the longshots always pay better.

Either which way you decide to go, one things for sure, this is gonna be one fun game to watch.

BOL!

[Jerbowski]

nice write up, Doc. Now you have me thinking...........I hate thinking...........

[Silverbullet]

I give the Bills credit for being able to step up against the Bengals who as you saw lost bad to the Jets. The Steelers are better on both sides of the ball and should rack up the score in the second half. Steelers 35 Bills 20

[Brian891]

I am a huge bills fan, but biggest difference in this game is that bills qb gets a little too much hype. While fitzpatrick has played lights out lately, he trusts his arm too much. He makes at least one key mistake in every game. Even in Cincinnati he threw a pick six. It is going to be snowing here, and the steelers are built to win games in this climate. Run the ball, great defense. Bills traditionally do not play well against the 3-4 defense and passing game will be neutralized as fitzpatrick does not have great arm for bad weather. As much as i dont want it to happen, steelers win by 10+. Bills tend to play up to competition, but the reason they are 2-8 is that against good teams they always seem to have a big turnover or give up a huge play. Jets came in and won 38-14. Think it will be closer than that, but steelers pull away in 4th.

[kobebryant55]

damm man.. theres one side of me that is saying wow steelers win this one pretty easily 24-13 but there's another side of me that says something happens where big ben has a shitty game a fluke fumble kick off return where it'll more like steelers 20-17

oh and dr. money.. great great great research, response, and opinion. love to hear good stuff like that before a bet. BOL to you too sir.

[GunShard]

The Bills could bring this to a tight 3 point game.

[TonyHoliday]

Bills ml!!!

[Dr.Money]

@Brian891

Breakdown:

I am a huge bills fan, but biggest difference in this game is that bills qb gets a little too much hype. While fitzpatrick has played lights out lately, he trusts his arm too much. He makes at least one key mistake in every game.
I too am huge Bills fan. I see fitzy getting fair credit for what he has been able to do, considering the O-line he is working with (although they have been ALOT better in recent games) My thinking is that a QB HAS to trust his arm, if not, you have Trent Edwards all over again. 1 mistake a game....yeah, you got me there.....but we are at home this week, facing a team that everyone and their mother in law expects them to lose in. When this team is giving no chance, they seem to be at their best. With Pittsburgh gearing up for that huge game next week, I'm guessing we wont see the "Best" Steelers team show up. Another reason I'm liking the Buffalo cover.

Even in Cincinnati he threw a pick six. It is going to be snowing here, and the steelers are built to win games in this climate. Run the ball, great defense.
Hey man, we been in Buffalo for 51 seasons. If we are not built to play in this weather, then there is no team that is built to play in this weather. I actually think bad weather favour's our squad this week. Maybe I'm just being a fan.......but we have been able to run the ball quite well this season, and our defense has improved over the last few games. Yes we gave up 31 to the Bengals, but that was all first half.......we shut em out in the 2nd half. And again, I know the Steelers pose the hardest test of the year so far- but thats what we said when we played Baltimore.

As much as i dont want it to happen, steelers win by 10+. Bills tend to play up to competition, but the reason they are 2-8 is that against good teams they always seem to have a big turnover or give up a huge play. Jets came in and won 38-14. Think it will be closer than that, but steelers pull away in 4th.

I dont disagree with anything above, I do however note that we are a far different team from the week 5 team we fielded. That jets game was tough, cuz' we were right in the thick of things, until that horrendous 3rd quarter where we gave up 21 points and scored none. this team is more like the under-lined portion of your statement.

@jerbowski
nice write up, Doc. Now you have me thinking...........I hate thinking...........

thanks man, I hate thinking too much too. but it's friday night, so let us mull and think- over a few frosty ones.


@kobebryant55
thanks for the feedback. now lets make this a winning weekend.

[Lockitup1x]

If you like the Bills, then you must believe +6.5 is too much or a trap. What should the line be?

[Dr.Money]

If you like the Bills, then you must believe +6.5 is too much or a trap. What should the line be?

Considering everything, I was thinking Steelers -4 maybe -5.
Im not saying the Steeler are not the better team they clearly are, but this bills team since the bye week has been in every game.....that's gotta count for something no?
No trap here though, if the line was -4 or -5 we might be seeing +80% on Pits, the difference on the 2 points makes people wonder. But the Bills are a solid ATS bet in november at home over the last 5 or 6 games played in November. so I did think the opening line of -6 was not too far off. Pretty sharp considering.
But if this line was Buffalo PK or Buf -1 would you not pour you're entire life savings on the Steelers?
Its about right....I was hoping that the line would have moved above 7.5 but no such luck. 7 seems to be the number thrown out right now. Im just saying that these 2 teams should play a relatively close game. Closer than the projected 7. But we know all too well what happens on any given sunday.

good luck either way.

[kobebryant55]

it's just one of those damn things where your like ugh its so easy.. and usually when you think its too easy you should run run run run far away and fade.. however everyone said that about the pats game and that it was a trap.. hmm

another thing to consider is pitts o-line is quite banged up.. this is the main reason why i immediately didnt fire away at the line and take pitt

nonetheless, i think this pitt team has learned from last year’s debacle, playing with heart and not taking anything for granted. (after losing to the bills, raiders, and some other garbage team that i cant remember their name.. maybe the browns or chiefs) i think they send a statement that there not overlooking teams like they did last year especially with mike tomlin as their coach

[Lockitup1x]

Considering everything, I was thinking Steelers -4 maybe -5.
Im not saying the Steeler are not the better team they clearly are, but this bills team since the bye week has been in every game.....that's gotta count for something no?
No trap here though, if the line was -4 or -5 we might be seeing +80% on Pits, the difference on the 2 points makes people wonder. But the Bills are a solid ATS bet in november at home over the last 5 or 6 games played in November. so I did think the opening line of -6 was not too far off. Pretty sharp considering.
But if this line was Buffalo PK or Buf -1 would you not pour you're entire life savings on the Steelers?
Its about right....I was hoping that the line would have moved above 7.5 but no such luck. 7 seems to be the number thrown out right now. Im just saying that these 2 teams should play a relatively close game. Closer than the projected 7. But we know all too well what happens on any given sunday.

good luck either way.

Thanks, good luck with your play

[kobebryant55]

i really hate teaser bets.. but teasing the chargers and steelers doesnt look like a bad idea this week

[eberetta1]

I consider myself a square. I would rather choose an obvious easy winner than a hope and pray underdog can win a game for me this week. I think a 2-8 team has a 80 percent chance of losing their next game. I hate thinking and like being lazy to earn my money. I mean I like odds so lopsided in my favor that it is an unfair contest. This is one of those games.

[BRAVES1985]

steelers will cover easy

[BuffaloBettor]

Steelers will beat my Bills easily today....I am on the Steelers (-6.5).........Pittsburgh just has too much for my Bills....GL today!!!

[Dr.Money]