Turkey Day: Pats/Lions over 51?

[cwuga9889]

The Patriots have the highest scoring offense in the NFL right now, averaging 28.9 ppg, whil the lions aren't too shabby at 23.4 ppg. The Patriots' defense is 23rd in the league, while the Lions' defense is 22nd in the league. I think the key stat here is that the Lions are averaging close to 256 passing yds/game, and the Pats' secondary has shown that they are horrible this year, getting torched for close to 290 yds/game. The question is not whether the Pats can score in this game, because we all know they can score, and they will score in bunches sicne they are playing the Lions. The question here is whether or not the Lions can exploit New England's secondary and find Calvin Johnson down the field for a few big plays. The Lions are going to have to score more than 20 pts, which is completely reasonable, in order for this over to have a good shot at hitting. That being said, I see the Lions coming out fired up, after three disappointing weeks in a row. Vegas is obviously starting to believe this too, since the spread has dropped from 7 to 6.5 with 89% of the public on the Pats, and it looks poised to drop again.


Any way, that's the way I see this game, and I was wondering what peoples' thoughts are....

[terpkeg]

I think that all of this information is already facotred into the spread and then some since NE keeps going over this year. Hopefully this line did not peek at 51.5. I will be on under.

[thebestthereis]

turkey bet the overs, nobody wants to play defense

[cwuga9889]

I agree, especially when looking at the recent trends of these 2 teams

the total has gone OVER in 10 of the Pats' 12 last games
the total has gone OVER in 6 of the Lions' past 7 games
and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 5 home games for the Lions

[Resler]

I think this stays under and would rather take the pats -6, I know its a public play but so what.

[cwuga9889]

regardless of whether the pats are a public play, I would not be on them because not only is this a serious let down game for the pats after that victory over peyton manning and the colts, but there is also some rlm that crossed that key number of 7.

[Resler]

I bet the play Monday morning and have pats -6. Unlike other teams I don't think the pats have let downs after big games, they are to well coached and disciplined. Also, the pats like to pour it on, and pour it on early without mercy. Peyton manning came back but s. Hill isn't Manning

[cwuga9889]

I bet the play Monday morning and have pats -6. Unlike other teams I don't think the pats have let downs after big games, they are to well coached and disciplined. Also, the pats like to pour it on, and pour it on early without mercy. Peyton manning came back but s. Hill isn't Manning

What would you call that embarassing 20 pt loss to the Browns? I believe that is what you would call a let down game. I agree with you that they are very well coached, but they are like any other team, and are still able to, and do have let down games. I also agree in saying the S. Hill is not manning, but he is still a pro football player, so that means he is pretty good regardless.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Hold off on playing the Over. Its still to early you'll change your mind before kick-off

[cwuga9889]

I agree it is too early. I am going to wait until closer to gametime before I make a play, I was just saying that at first look, this over looks pretty good. What do you think D3? By telling me to hold off, are you saying that you like the under?

[HilltopTony]

GL with the over!

[big0mar]

Scoring 50 points isn't easy. A couple of FGs in the red zone and it becomes a real uphill battle

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I agree it is too early. I am going to wait until closer to gametime before I make a play, I was just saying that at first look, this over looks pretty good. What do you think D3? By telling me to hold off, are you saying that you like the under?

Gun to my head i'll take the Under but I won't play the total in that game. Already have the Pats in a teaser and thats more then enough action for that game.

[scarp]

i'd take the under on this one

[cwuga9889]

knew it...told y'all