My largest wager of the year

FJ_islander · 11-21-10, 11:14 AM

If one has to take Steelers then ML would be safest bet IMO.
GL

cmle123 · 11-21-10, 11:14 AM

seem like a good pick. good luck

C-Gold · 11-21-10, 11:16 AM

Jeff Saragins ratings say that Pitt should be a -10.78 point favorite... I do think they cover the spread too, it might be close but I am very confident they win this game and I'm putting a lot on it.

My other picks this week...
Balt -10.5
GB -3
NE/Indy Over 49.5
Detroit +6.5

gryfyn1 · 11-21-10, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by FJ_islander

If one has to take Steelers then ML would be safest bet IMO.
GL

at more than -300 it better be safe

Super Duper · 11-21-10, 11:29 AM

Well count me as one of the suckers that jumped on Oakland plus the points. But now, since you are one of the guys I look for and respect, I'll root for Pitt to win the game. By 8 or less lol since I have 8.5 with the raiders. I know he's not Gradkowski, and I realize the steelers lost 3 years ago AT Oak while this week they're at home. And your point is well made, that the raiders love to run but running against Steel City is usually a No-Go! However, I think the Steelers offensive line is playing poorly enough that the raiders defense will make 2 stops each half. That leaves between 4-6 possessions, depending on bombs and turnovers. My thought on JeMarcus McCampbellPepper are that he'll be able to not turn it over this week. Call it a hunch, call it what you will. But it sure seems like the Raiders offensive coaching staff can adjust from week to week now, where they couldn't before. Fewer deep outs and more screens and post routes. Trying to take advantage of Polamalu's creepiing up tendencies. I see a 23-17 game either way. If I'm wrong, I'll kick myself for going against you on this one. Good luck C,

Super Duper

C-Gold · 11-21-10, 11:42 AM

GL SD

I'm not on the spread so it really doesn't matter for me. I'd tend to think Pitt wins and covers but there's no bet. I know you know what you think you know but West Coast Teams coming east for 1 PM games usually makes them play worse than you'd expect. Throw in Pitts defense is better at home on that grass and you might be surprised at what happens.

I do think Oakland "can" cover, and Campbell is known at playing small ball taking no chances but what happens if his team is losing? He can't be a game manager anymore. Look at "good garrard and bad garrard" and realize it's not HIM but who he plays. The Steelers still have a top 3 defense and I don't think the Raiders will figure it out. Too basic of game plans and I think they lose, but good luck on the spread.

I took Baltimore -6 first half as well for 1 unit.

Super Duper · 11-21-10, 11:50 AM

Good luck C-Gold

C-Gold · 11-21-10, 11:50 AM

I bet all my SBR points on the Pitt ML too

fsfalcons · 11-21-10, 11:55 AM

good luck man the steelers and ravens looks pretty safe today

linedrivr · 11-21-10, 12:05 PM

Do you remember what happened last year when Oakland visited Pit the first week of December? Something to think about. BOL today.

C-Gold · 11-21-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by linedrivr

Do you remember what happened last year when Oakland visited Pit the first week of December? Something to think about. BOL today.

Yeah and if that never happened this line would be Pitt -10, with a Moneyline over -400.

A -300 can be cheap
A +200 can be very expensive based on probabilities

You could overpay or underpay for anything, and I think Pitt ML is cheap as it understates their probability to win this game. I believe Polomalu didn't even play and it was a different team IMO.

4TH AND STUPID · 11-21-10, 12:16 PM

LOVE IT.

i've been saying all week jason campbell has NO CHANCE vs pitts D.

the real jason campbell shows up today.. pitts will win and i am on the ML like a newly released ex prison convict on a fresh young blond hooker.

C-Gold · 11-21-10, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID

LOVE IT.

i've been saying all week jason campbell has NO CHANCE vs pitts D.

the real jason campbell shows up today.. pitts will win and i am on the ML like a newly released ex prison convict on a fresh young blond hooker.

Look at his history.

Look at him vs shitty defenses
Look at him vs good defenses

He played Pitt a couple years ago when he was a redskin and Brett Kiesel smashed into him right in the knee and knocked him out a few weeks. Campbell either throws a check down ( easily covered up by a good D), or holds onto the ball foreverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. Not going to work vs the zone blitz.

The only chance he has is play action... but how many yards are the raiders really going to be getting on 1st and 2nd downs? The 1st down play action could work too, but despite Jason's strong arm he's not very accurate on deep balls. He doesn't make people pay.

He's a backup QB and to tell you the truth I'm more worried about that fiesty Gradkowski coming into the game.

C-Gold · 11-21-10, 02:48 PM

Baltimore -6 first half cashed in.

smo1a · 11-21-10, 02:59 PM

Ballsey ML play. Looks good so far. Good luck with your plays today.

C-Gold · 11-21-10, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by smo1a

Ballsey ML play. Looks good so far. Good luck with your plays today.

Steelers ML was just toooo easyyyyyyyy. I know -300 sounds expensive but it really was not. At one point in time Jason Campbell had more (Sacks + Fumbles+ Intercpetions) than completions and the completions were 5 yard dump offs as it is. He's an absolute fade and the Steelers bounced back in a big way against an overrated Raiders team.

Wish I put 5,000 on that joke of a game.

C-Gold · 11-22-10, 07:23 PM

Probably not going to play tonights game.

Texas · 11-22-10, 07:45 PM

what did sagarrin look like tonight ? i use him in the bowl games. he only lost 5 -7 bowl games last year. texas