NFL Week 9 Picks Experiment

eejitndn · 11-03-10, 05:16 PM

Your picking 9 home teams?

SBRtv Judie · 11-03-10, 05:23 PM

4 away and 5 home.

minet123 · 11-03-10, 06:00 PM

Judie you need to to contact Dell and have Patches take on Cwissy
(Just do a web search on Dell Dude and Cwissy)

vboyt · 11-05-10, 07:02 PM

Pretty cool

CaptainPrice · 11-05-10, 08:12 PM

little cornfused

SR · 11-07-10, 03:21 PM

I dont get it, what do the points mean next to the title. Gold picks (20 pts)?

denn333 · 11-08-10, 06:59 AM

How do the Bears win.

jjgold · 11-08-10, 09:04 AM

I watched video 11 times and I did not listen to one word Judy said. I starred at her breasts and trying to look down her shirt.

yankeerick · 11-08-10, 09:34 AM

garbage

SBRtv Judie · 11-08-10, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by vboyt

Pretty cool

Thanks very much!

Originally posted by SR

I dont get it, what do the points mean next to the title. Gold picks (20 pts)?

Just that each pick has different value. So our gold bet is the bet that we have the most confidence in and the bronze is the bet that we have the least confidence in.

Originally posted by jjgold

I watched video 11 times and I did not listen to one word Judy said. I starred at her breasts and trying to look down her shirt.

jj, you are a scholar and a poet, wow!

Originally posted by yankeerick

garbage

It's just a bit of fun and I really enjoy these vids. It's light and gives me a chance to learn about handicapping.

yisman · 11-08-10, 10:39 AM

Judie, if you thought the line would go up on Oakland, wouldn't the value be on Oakland?

As it turns out, there was a big line move the other way on Sunday, but the wrong side ended up winning.

Anyway, explain what you do with the odds converter. You enter in the current moneyline and then look at where the converter says the fair spread lies?

Also, what are the SBR matchup arrows?

Dave, the dogs would go against Vick, but cats are a dog's natural enemy, so they would side with him.

SBRtv Judie · 11-08-10, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Judie, if you thought the line would go up on Oakland, wouldn't the value be on Oakland? As it turns out, there was a big line move the other way on Sunday, but the wrong side ended up winning. Anyway, explain what you do with the odds converter. You enter in the current moneyline and then look at where the converter says the fair spread lies? Also, what are the SBR matchup arrows? Dave, the dogs would go against Vick, but cats are a dog's natural enemy, so they would side with him.

LOL nice one for noticing my Oakland f***up. I thought I got away with that! Lol. Serious rush to make picks on Tuesday morning though.

With the ML/ Spread Converter I enter the current moneyline and I take the output as the correct spread- just like you said- so for example if the spread is 3 and ML converter say the correct spread should is 4, then I assume that there is more current value in the favorite.

Then I take a look at SBRodds to see where the money is coming in. If the public are on the favorite then I feel confident that the line will change since I am making my pick early in the week. Not always true but sometimes helpful.

Next I take a look at the matchup analysis here:
http://odds.sbrforum.com/MatchupsFor...0&rotation=425
I check the smartchart, the ATS stats and injuries.

Then before I confuse any further I take a look at recent news and try to find out who the sharps are looking. I usually take a coffee break now.

Then I come back and take the 3 most convincing stats/ snippets of info and base my pick on that.

But as you noticed with the Oakland pick, I am only learning and I do make mistakes; sometimes they work in my favor and sometimes they don't but with the Oakland pick I got a push so no real harm done.

I bet most are laughing their heads off reading this but dudes if you have any suggestions of how I might make better picks PM me as I'd love to know.

Thanks for the Q yisman!