Best "Survivor Play" this week???

[Powerhaus]

I'm stuck between the Chiefs, the Cowboys, and the Rams.

Who's the safest play here? I'm leaning KC...

[slacker00]

Jets are another possibility. I'm still mulling this one over too.

[yisman]

there are no good picks this week

I'm still alive and I'll go with KC

As safe as anything up there and I doubt I'd use them otherwise

[Powerhaus]

Jets are another possibility. I'm still mulling this one over too.

I was thinking that, but it's only a matter of time before they throw up a stinker just like last year. I like the Packers to cover that line, and they're going to be healthy for once this Sunday. A lot of Ball hawks on that defense, and Sanchez scares me at times!!! The Jets have not played the pass all that well this year and I hate playing teams off a bye week, especially against a good team like the Packers, there's always a little rust there.

[Robust]

my numbers say KC, but there is rlm on Buf so no play for now..

and one of my strong plays for the week is STL... 5-2 ATS, and @ home 3-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 7.5 pts..

so STL it is..

Good Luck!

Robust

[turco83086]

Def leaning Rams in my league as well. Coming off tough loss while Panthers are in a let down situation after their first win. Could see a lot of other pick KC and lose to a Buffalo team still clawing for their 1st win.

[rockland]

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

NFL SURVIVOR POOL PICKS AND ADVICE 2010: WEEK 8



NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES



1
Chiefs
50.3%
2
Cowboys
12.4%
3
Jets
10.2%
4
Patriots
8.8%
5
Colts
5.7%
6
Rams
5.2%



2010 NFL Survivor Week 8


Teams used: New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants, Kansas City


Well, 7 weeks into the season and we are still perfect, with really not too much of a sweat. In fact, I do not believe that any of our 7 picks have been behind in the 2nd half at any point in our games. Last week we warned everyone about the potential for the upset in Baltimore. I hope everyone that had Baltimore as an option saved the Ravens for week 12. If nothing else, you probably added 3 months to your life.


Now it’s on to week 8, and what a difficult week this is.


Kansas City (over Buffalo) The Chiefs are currently a 7 ½ point favorite over the Bills and have a 76% likelihood of winning. Now, we burned KC last week so we thankfully cannot use the Pats. However, if you have the Chiefs available, you can see by the above chart that they are extremely popular this week, garnering 50% of the picks. Way too popular this week when considering other options. From a future utility value, KC still has Arizona in week 11 and Oakland in week 17.


Dallas (over Jacksonville) The Cowboys are currently -6.5 and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinny money line. The Cowboys are only getting 12% of the picks, so are almost as likely to win as Kansas City, but 1/4 as popular. Dallas has zero future utility value, especially when one considers Tony Romo is out for 8 weeks. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is getting David Garrard back this week. Dallas is an interesting, yet risky option this week.


NY Jets (vs. Green Bay) The Jets are currently -6 and have an 71% chance to win. 10% of the picks at OFP are on the Jets this week. The Jets are a comparable pick to Dallas. The Jets are coming off its bye week and should be fresh. Green Bay is off an emotional win vs. Minnesota on Sunday night. I would have no problem using the Jets in this spot. The Jets, however, do have future utility. The Flyboys have @ Detroit (week 9) @ Cleveland (Week 10) Cincinnati (Week 12) and a home game with Buffalo (Week 17).


Indianapolis (vs. Houston) The Colts are favored by 5 ½ and have a 71% chance to win. The Colts are only getting 5.8% of the vote. The Colts are an interesting option. The Colts are half as popular as Dallas and the Jets, yet almost as likely to win. Indy is playing with revenge from its Week 1 ambush in Houston. Still, with Indianapolis depleted by injuries, and with a week 15 game vs. Jacksonville to look forward to, I would rather save Indy for when it has a healthy squad and a less challenging opponent.


Arizona, Detroit, and St. Louis (vs. Tampa Bay, Washington, and Carolina) Each of these 3 bottom feeders each are favored by about a field goal, have about a 58% likelihood of winning, and offer zero future utility value. I like all 3 teams this week. Only St. Louis is garnering any attention getting 5% of the picks at OFP. Thus, if you wanted to steal a win either with Detroit or Arizona for the most upside, you would have my blessing.


This is as challenging a week as any I can remember. I had Dallas penciled in for this week from the beginning of the season. The Tony Romo injury sure does complicate matters. I can’t say I am terribly confident of Jon Kitna QB’ing the Cowboys. Still, the fact remains that this is a last man standing pool, and it will help us greatly to have the Jets and the Colts available for the stretch run. In fact, looking ahead to next week, we have burned the 2 best teams that will be available…Minnesota and Atlanta. It looks like we might need the Jets as soon as next week. While I surely would like to have the guts to tell you to pick the Lions or the Cardinals this week, I will defer to the Vegas linemakers that have determined each team’s statistical probability of winning.


May God be with us this week.


The Pick: Dallas


Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.

[Jhart2838]

Colts. Who has beaten peyton twice in a season? not many.

[Powerhaus]

Buffalo showed a lot of life Sunday, threw the ball all over the Ravens, and KC's pass defense was exploited by Bowman???

[slacker00]

Colts. Who has beaten peyton twice in a season? not many.

How many teams were in a position to beat Peyton twice in one season? Looking back, for teams that beat Peyton in the first meeting, they had a decent chance at completing the sweep. Chargers in 2007, Pats in 2004-2003-2001, etc. I don't think it's fair to talk about the Jets last year, because Peyton was winning that first meeting when he got pulled. Don't even get me started about Peyton's first year (3-13) where almost everyone in the AFC East (Pats, Bills, Phins) beat Peyton twice.

My point is that there are better teams (Jets, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams) to use this week as well as better spots to use the Colts than against a good Texans team that's already proven that they can beat them, not to mention that it's a division Rivalry game which is always more unpredictable.

[theD]

Buffalo showed a lot of life Sunday, threw the ball all over the Ravens, and KC's pass defense was exploited by Bowman???

Buffalo scares me a bit too as they're not laying down for anyone.

However, KC can sure run the ball and that's the Bills' weakness.

My only other option is Dallas and who knows how they'll play on any given week.

[slacker00]

I think I'm just gonna bite the bullet and take KC. I feel like the other plays are just a little too "cute". There are good arguments for taking a wide variety of other teams this week, but KC seems to be clicking right now and who knows if that will continue. Might as well take a chance here rather than wait around for week 11 when they host the Cards, which might be safer but things might change by then. Everyone seems to like KC, which might be a bad omen, but in survivor I tend to go with the chalk which is KC this week.

[Powerhaus]

Buffalo scares me a bit too as they're not laying down for anyone.

However, KC can sure run the ball and that's the Bills' weakness.

My only other option is Dallas and who knows how they'll play on any given week.

The Jets are also an option, don't see them losing here, but it could be a close game.

For some reason I can see KC getting upset here, it's definitely a let down spot!!!

The Rams seem like a nice play at home, but Vegas doesn't seem to agree with that fishy line, the public is hammering the Rams and the line hasn't moved???

Dallas seems like a logical play, but GOD are they scary to watch, and now with Kitna in there who knows what to expect???

[Powerhaus]

Week#8 Survivor Play - Kansas City Chiefs

I have finally decided to take the Chiefs, I don't believe in saving teams, and in my opinion it's the best play on the board available this week.

Let's just hope Buffalo caught Baltimore by surprise last week, the Chiefs are clearly the better team, there's no reason they shouldn't win this game...

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

[B][COLOR=#222222]
May God be with us this week.


The Pick: Dallas

[Time is Money]

Dallas.

[eightballer41]

For some odd reason, I think the cowboys will get it done this sunday.

[slacker00]

Man, talking about dodging bullets. 'Survivor' has never been a more meaningful word.

[Powerhaus]

Man, talking about dodging bullets. 'Survivor' has never been a more meaningful word.

And you thought the Ravens game was bad???