(MNF) Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars: The Right Play

[pokerwhiz90]

Hey! That was a pretty shaky sunday but let's bounce back and end this football weekend with a bang!

At first thoughts, I'm thinking the Titans are obviously better than the Jaguars but lets scope in a little into the matchups. Both teams are 3-2 and looking to make that 4-2.

The Play:
Jaguars +2.5
Strong Lean:
Over 45


Previous week:

Both teams are coming off a win, one may be bigger than the other.
The titans came off a win to a very desperate and talented but underperforming Cowboys team.
The Jaguars beat the bills, so has everyone else.
Edge: none


The Chris Johnson show vs the Maurice Jones Drew show with Garrard and Young, the RB's are the highlights of the game and Chris Johnson has the obvious advantage and also the better offensive line.

Garrard is much better at home than on the road and same can be said about Vince Young, with two bad defenses and two running teams that have trouble throwing the ball consistently the home field is going to give you 3 points.

The Reverse Line Movement, is none, which should be surprising with 80% of the public on the Titans, vegas seems to be playing the logos here and will make big money.

The Road Factor - The titans will be a more tired team playing their 2nd of a 3 game road trip while the Jaguars will be much more rested and have the obvious home field advantage. As both teams have been hitting the over on the total consistently this season, I see this one as a close game with the total at 55.

Trends - The home team is 7-3 in their last ten meetings.
Underdog is 5-2 in their last 7.

[tanner40]

You should be able to get them +3. I agree that should be the play.

[brooks85]

i need scobee to kick 6 fgs so I can stay undefeated in Fantasy

[udlock4life]

bol tomorrow

[pokerwhiz90]

remember the bookies are 6-6-1 this week, i'm pretty sure this is the game that pushes them to 7-6-1 with 80% of the public being on the titans

makes you feel better betting on the jaguars

[Dynasty47]

I think Jags first half is worth a bet, with the home crowd, they can ride the emotions. It's only -0.5, it should be a close contest, and a tie at home winning is worth a shot.

also, I think every MNF game this season, the total has stayed Under in the first half of every game.

[xxdjstriderxx]

remember the bookies are 6-6-1 this week, i'm pretty sure this is the game that pushes them to 7-6-1 with 80% of the public being on the titans

makes you feel better betting on the jaguars

theres about 12 weeks in the nfl season

the players got killed last week

the books don't necessarily "win" every week

of course at the end of the season they should come out ahead regardless

one game is meaningless, poor angle

you could be right or wrong, who knows. but the better team wins. who is the better team? i dont know, line looks sharp. good luck to you all.

[BL]

leaning JAX ml so far

[Pluthero]

I'm with you on thr Jags.

[pokerwhiz90]

I think Jags first half is worth a bet, with the home crowd, they can ride the emotions. It's only -0.5, it should be a close contest, and a tie at home winning is worth a shot.

also, I think every MNF game this season, the total has stayed Under in the first half of every game.

I really like that trend, im gonna put money on that.

[legendmatt34]

th'er mirror teams. w tenn having the better and healthier runnin back. go with tenn!

[pokerwhiz90]

theres about 12 weeks in the nfl season

the players got killed last week

the books don't necessarily "win" every week

of course at the end of the season they should come out ahead regardless

one game is meaningless, poor angle

you could be right or wrong, who knows. but the better team wins. who is the better team? i dont know, line looks sharp. good luck to you all.

agreed however just writing that down to make me feel more confident in my bet -

[onacloud]

Division game on MNF @ home. MJD is due to go off hopefully tonight is the night I'm leaning jags ml and the over.

[pokerwhiz90]

agreed - the jaguars are simply a really good upset team and a terrible favorite team

[pokerwhiz90]

btw guys, trying to choose a steakhouse to eat at tonight - chicago any advice? of course before the game

[gshock1]

btw guys, trying to choose a steakhouse to eat at tonight - chicago any advice? of course before the game

Gibson's steak. Should order the carrot cake too. Its huge!

[JMUplayer]

+3 or no play....wouldn't touch the jags at +2.5 with a really really really long stick

[pokerwhiz90]

yeah they were part of the top 20 best steak houses? do you know if they are dry aged, i've been looking for a place with a steak larger than 28oz - kinda like my treat for some of the wins this week

[TrapperDapper]

Yeah. I', thinking Jags also. Very underrated defense this season. And I think the offense will do just enough.

[Vangel330]

with you on this play, good luck

[jwbama23]

Jags ml....going to the game so I just want to see them win

[gshock1]

yeah they were part of the top 20 best steak houses? do you know if they are dry aged, i've been looking for a place with a steak larger than 28oz - kinda like my treat for some of the wins this week

They are dry aged. They have a porterhouse at 42oz too. I go there every time I visit Chicago.

[pokerwhiz90]

ive learned my lesson with the money line, stupid oregon state... while everyone else banked big on the +1.5, i cried like a loser - my big play for saturday lol

[Snowball]

the defenses vs Rush are both good. Tenn(10), Jax (12)
the defenses vs Pass are both weak. Tenn(26), Jax (29)
5 games is not a stat base yet, but it is enough to think about. (both played 5 so far)
So we have good defenses vs both offensive strong points (the run).
Avg Rush yards per game: Jax (3rd), Tenn (5th).

The weakness of the defenses (pass) face poor passing offenses.
Jax (26 ranked pass), Tenn (29)

I like the 7-pt tease Under 52 / Jax +10
and the Jax +3 side
home dog on MNF with no statistical advantage for Tenn.

[pokerwhiz90]

great post snowball - i swear i feel like were going to knock this one on the head! esp if the under 1h, Jags ML, Jags +3, and Over 45 all hit

[Snowball]

great post snowball - i swear i feel like were going to knock this one on the head! esp if the under 1h, Jags ML, Jags +3, and Over 45 all hit

I like the Under but feel more comfortable with the tease.

In your list, I find Under 1st half and Over for game uncomplimentary.
Better to choose 1st half under OR 2nd half Over if you think 2h will
be high scoring.

[Snowball]

sold out game

[gamemastere]

I'll be on tennessee, I think vince young shows up big tonight on mnf

[dwang0725]

Sitting this one out. Had a 5-1 weekend (finally a good week to get me back to the positive), so this is an easy decision.

[mike312]

Personally I think Gibson's is overrated and overpriced. I'm a fan of Keefer's or Joe's. For old school steakhouse check out Gene & Georgetti. For dry aged David Burke's or Capital Grille.

[CHAZ]

remember the bookies are 6-6-1 this week, i'm pretty sure this is the game that pushes them to 7-6-1 with 80% of the public being on the titans

makes you feel better betting on the jaguars

The books make money either way. The lines move up and down to try and keep a even split.

-3(-105) = 51%
+3(-115) = 53%

[4TH AND STUPID]

I DONT THINK VINCE YOUNG OR CHRIS JOHNSON GIVE A **** About THE 'RIGHT' PLAY TONIGHT LOOLLL IM GOING TO LAUGH FROM THE SIDELINE TONIGHT U JAGUAR BITCHES

[ManOfValue]

I'm very wary of betting this game over , seems easy since these two teams have been scoring and surrendering point lately . But this a meaningful game and it seems like more MNF games go under than over ...Nice writeup pokerwhiz90 ..

[hitman2010]

[boay09]

Primetime inter-divisional games with the home team getting points are 3-0 ATS this year

my money is on the jags +3 and over 45