Here are some player performance I like for this weekend10 Units - Ray Rice > 75.5 rushing yards vs. Patriots @ $1.80 (bet365)
I'm guessing their thinking with this line is that the Patriots are a high-scoring offense and might have the Ravens throwing a lot... which is fine except the Pats just traded away their most dangerous offensive weapon, and Ray Rice is on the field on third-down anyway. NE are 20th against the run, and 28th against the pass, and I could easily see this game being close all the way. Ray Rice has had two poor rushing games, against the Jets and the Steelers,no shame in that. The others he's covered this line even when Baltimore has lost. Prior to last week the noise coming from the coaching staff was that they were going to put the ball in Ray's hands more often; the result was 27 carries for 133 yards. Look for something like those numbers to continue here, so that Baltimore control the clock and keep Brady off the field.
5 Units - Jahvid Best o51.5 rushing yards vs. Giants @ $1.76 (bet365)
Jahvid is suffering from turf toe, a sprain of the big toe which while sounding innocuous limits a running back's ability to make cuts and change direction. The Giants absolutely stuffed Adrian Foster last week and are playing great D at the moment (1st vs. pass and 10th vs. run). The Lions may be lacking Calvin Johnson this week and will certainly be without Matt Stafford, so there's a chance Detroit are down and throwing early. While Best covered the line last week, the Lions won 44-6 and would have been playing ball-protection. That won't happen this week.
5 Units - Jamaal Charles o65.5 rushing yards vs. Texans @ $1.80 (bet365)
The common school of thought is that Todd Haley came out after the bye week and decided that the Chiefs needed to make Charles their no. 1 guy. I'm not yet convinced, particularly as Haley is a massive tosser. The good news is that Charles doesn't necessarily need lead-back carries to cover this line anyway, he'd done it 2/3 occasions when getting a maximum of 12 carries per game prior to the bye week. Houston is very accomplished in terms of run D, having statistically the 5th best in the league while being dead last against the pass. However KC are 27th in passing, and don't have the tools to exploit Houston's weakness anyway. If KC are on a passing down, Charles will be on the field rather than Jones so he still looks set to get the greater opportunities here.
5 Units - Felix Jones o57.5 rushing yards vs. Vikings @ $1.83 (bet365)
This is a pretty similar situation to last week for Felix, albeit with a less generous line. The Vikings rank 9th against the run, which is pretty much what Tennessee (now 12th) would have ranked last week. The query last week was over whether team owner Jerry Jones' comments that Felix was going to be featured more prominently would actually come to fruition. Evidently they did, and 109 yards rushing was the result. I'm not sure what changes here. 57.5 yards should be well within reach if all goes to script.
5 Units - Austin Collie o62.5 receiving yards vs. Redskins @ $1.86 (bet365)
This bet is by no means a sure thing, but Collie wasn't a starter last week; Garcon started in his place and had 14 targets to Collie's 7 (Wayne had 11). I think Collie is still getting a line which takes into account his insane 12/171/2 outing back in week 3, but in the last two weeks his targets have dropped and he hasn't surpassed 48 yards. Mathematical bets haven't gone great for me this year so far, but that doesn't mean you stop taking them.
5 Units - Pierre Garcon o55.5 receiving yards vs. Redskins @ $1.76 (bet365)
See above. I'm betting that there has been a slight changing of the guard and the bookies haven't caught on yet. It may just be a week-to-week variation, but Garcon definitely got the start last week and the numbers don't lie.
I'm guessing their thinking with this line is that the Patriots are a high-scoring offense and might have the Ravens throwing a lot... which is fine except the Pats just traded away their most dangerous offensive weapon, and Ray Rice is on the field on third-down anyway. NE are 20th against the run, and 28th against the pass, and I could easily see this game being close all the way. Ray Rice has had two poor rushing games, against the Jets and the Steelers,no shame in that. The others he's covered this line even when Baltimore has lost. Prior to last week the noise coming from the coaching staff was that they were going to put the ball in Ray's hands more often; the result was 27 carries for 133 yards. Look for something like those numbers to continue here, so that Baltimore control the clock and keep Brady off the field.
5 Units - Jahvid Best o51.5 rushing yards vs. Giants @ $1.76 (bet365)
Jahvid is suffering from turf toe, a sprain of the big toe which while sounding innocuous limits a running back's ability to make cuts and change direction. The Giants absolutely stuffed Adrian Foster last week and are playing great D at the moment (1st vs. pass and 10th vs. run). The Lions may be lacking Calvin Johnson this week and will certainly be without Matt Stafford, so there's a chance Detroit are down and throwing early. While Best covered the line last week, the Lions won 44-6 and would have been playing ball-protection. That won't happen this week.
5 Units - Jamaal Charles o65.5 rushing yards vs. Texans @ $1.80 (bet365)
The common school of thought is that Todd Haley came out after the bye week and decided that the Chiefs needed to make Charles their no. 1 guy. I'm not yet convinced, particularly as Haley is a massive tosser. The good news is that Charles doesn't necessarily need lead-back carries to cover this line anyway, he'd done it 2/3 occasions when getting a maximum of 12 carries per game prior to the bye week. Houston is very accomplished in terms of run D, having statistically the 5th best in the league while being dead last against the pass. However KC are 27th in passing, and don't have the tools to exploit Houston's weakness anyway. If KC are on a passing down, Charles will be on the field rather than Jones so he still looks set to get the greater opportunities here.
5 Units - Felix Jones o57.5 rushing yards vs. Vikings @ $1.83 (bet365)
This is a pretty similar situation to last week for Felix, albeit with a less generous line. The Vikings rank 9th against the run, which is pretty much what Tennessee (now 12th) would have ranked last week. The query last week was over whether team owner Jerry Jones' comments that Felix was going to be featured more prominently would actually come to fruition. Evidently they did, and 109 yards rushing was the result. I'm not sure what changes here. 57.5 yards should be well within reach if all goes to script.
5 Units - Austin Collie o62.5 receiving yards vs. Redskins @ $1.86 (bet365)
This bet is by no means a sure thing, but Collie wasn't a starter last week; Garcon started in his place and had 14 targets to Collie's 7 (Wayne had 11). I think Collie is still getting a line which takes into account his insane 12/171/2 outing back in week 3, but in the last two weeks his targets have dropped and he hasn't surpassed 48 yards. Mathematical bets haven't gone great for me this year so far, but that doesn't mean you stop taking them.
5 Units - Pierre Garcon o55.5 receiving yards vs. Redskins @ $1.76 (bet365)
See above. I'm betting that there has been a slight changing of the guard and the bookies haven't caught on yet. It may just be a week-to-week variation, but Garcon definitely got the start last week and the numbers don't lie.
