Dos Plays on Sundays

[EaglesPhan36]

So into Week 5, I have figured out that if I am gong to succeed in staying in the black ... I need to limit my Sunday plays to two. One early play. One late play. Mondays, still going to kick it with the prop plays. In any case, just tracking it from this week forward with the Dos Plays on Sundays + the prop plays.

10.10.10

[1pm KICKOFF]
DETROIT-ST.LOUIS UNDER 43.5 [-110]
Rams have quietly been a pretty steady defense. They bend, but they do not break. They have given up just 13 ppg. Detroit is averaging 20 ppg, sporting a very inconsistent offense. They have hit for 26 & 32 in two games an just 10 & 14 in the other two. The Rams have not allowed more than 17 points in any game and come in off their best performance, holding Seattle to just three points. Neither team does well running, so both may look to the air for points.

[4:15 KICKOFF]
OAKLAND-SAN DIEGO OVER 44 [-110]
The Raiders have not been able to consistently stop anyone, giving up 24 or more points in three of four games. San Diego has scored 99 points in their last three games. OVERs have hit in 6 of the 8 games involving these two teams in 2010.

[masontnk]

I see this one being detroit 20-17

[EaglesPhan36]

Got a half point on the 1sr and a full point change on the 2nd by waiting. Good luck today boyz.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED RECORD: 1-1 [-0.10]

10.11.10: MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PROP PROJECT

What I try here every week is to find a pair of props that are plus money and look to go 1-1 at worst for a profit. Going with the ones below as the first scores involving these two teams through seven combined games have been touchdowns in six of seven games.

1st Score Minnesota TD +270
1st Score New York TD +197

[EaglesPhan36]

10.17.10

[1PM KICKOFF]
GREEN BAY-MIAMI UNDER 44 [-110[
Pack are banged up and even with Rogers in the game, he'll miss Finley in the passing game. Biggest question would be what Matthews being out means to the GB defense that was lit up last week. Looking for a more vanilla game here.

[4pm KICKOFF]
SAN FRANCISCO-OAKLAND OVER 41 [-110]
Both offenses to me are a little under rated, even with Campbell at QB for Oakland. SF defense has had problems all-around, while Oakland has been troubled by the run. Could be the week Frank Gore does some damage. Expecting Alex Smith to continue to be his roller coaster self with some great drives and some great turnovers. Campbell could also lead to TOs and short fields which I think means more points.

[EaglesPhan36]

[8:20pm ET KICKOFF]
WASHINGTON-INDIANAPOLIS OVER 44 [-118]
Even though the Skins haven't given up a ton of points, their pass defense is susceptible. Colts will have prioritized getting TDs in the red zone this week over FGs. I think Washington can move the ball on Indianapolis and use play action from McNabb to get some deep balls.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-2 [+0.80]
Prop Plays: 0-2 [-2.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

[10.18.10: MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PROP PROJECT]

Again, the idea here is to get one of these to hit for a tidy profit. Both Jacksonville & Tennessee have some unheralded return guys who are having good seasons. The Titans have returned one kickoff for a TD and also allowed a kickoff for a TD. Jacksonville's Mike Thomas is an electric little punt returner. Monday Night games this year have also been a beacon for special teams TDs. There have been six MNF games this year and all but one have had either a kick return for TD or a defensive score. This one below also gives the added bonus that if the score is a kick or punt return, both bets hit.

ANY KICK OR PUNT RETURN TD +500
TD SCORED BY DEFENSE OR SPECIAL TEAMS +170

[EaglesPhan36]

10.24.10

[1pm KICKOFF]
FALCONS-BENGALS OVER 43 [-110]

[4pm KICKOFF]
OAKLAND +7 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[8:20pm KICKOFF]
PACKERS-VIKINGS OVER 43.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 6-2 [+3.80]
Prop Plays: 0-4 [-4.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

10.25.10

[8:30pm ET KICKOFF]
COWBOYS-GIANTS 1st HALF OVER 21 [-140]
Bought this down to 21. Giants have been a good 1st half team the last couple of weeks and four of the five Dallas games this season have seen at least 21 points at half time. The chalk isn't for everyone, but I think this game will start with points ... but I wasn't sold on an over for the game.

[DIESELHEEL]

Like the play EP.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 7-2 [+4.80]
Prop Plays: 0-4 [-4.00]

[DIESELHEEL]

Was too easy. Giants 2H is the play.

[EaglesPhan36]

10.31.10

[1:00pm KICKOFF]
KANSAS CITY-BUFFALO OVER 46 [-110]
Great rushing attack for KC vs. poor Buffalo defense should equal plenty of offensive opportunities. KC has scored 30+ in three of their last four while Buffalo has allowed five straight weeks of 34 points or more. Bills offense is also better seemingly with Fitzpatrick at QB.

[4:00pm KICKOFF]
SAN DIEGO-TENNESSEE OVER 44.5 [-110]
Gut play here. 10 of the 14 games these two teams have played this season have hit for above this total.

[bonduforlife]

i took KC,SD,MIN overs lets make some money

[EaglesPhan36]

That KC game was highly disappointing from a points perspective, but at least got the split.

[8:20pm KICKOFF]
SAINTS-STEELERS SPECIAL TEAMS OR DEFENSIVE TD SCORED +165
You've got Mr.Pick for New Orleans against one of the top takeaway teams in the NFL. The last few weeks have seen some defensive scores for the opposition against New Orleans. Don't expect much from the return games to add to this although the Steelers may get a good return or two on kickoffs against the Saints who have given up a few medium large returns.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 8-3 [+4.70]
Prop Plays: 0-5 [-5.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

11.7.10

[1:00pm KICKOFF]
FALCONS-BUCCANEERS OVER 45.5 [-102]

[1:00pm KICKOFF]
EAGLES-COLTS OVER 46.5 [-105]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 10-3 [+6.70]
Prop Plays: 0-5 [-5.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

Scratch that play period.

[EaglesPhan36]

Changed my mind and am passing now. Blech.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.14.10

[1:00pm KICKOFF]
DOLPHINS-TITANS OVER 42.5 [-105]
Titans have scored 20 or better in seven of their eight games. Miami has given up 23, 31 & 41 at home this year. Expect the Titans can do some work on the Miami defense regardless of which QB is in. Dolphins have been more effective throwing the ball. Pennington won't give them a deep threat, but she should be accurate enough to move the rock. Fish have gone OVERs in nine of their last ten at home.

[4:15pm KICKOFF]
CHIEFS-BRONCOS OVER 44.5 [-105]
Chiefs strength [run] is Denver's weakness. Denver's strength [pass] is the Chief's weakness. Broncos have given up 24 or more in six of their eight games and will at least have MLB D.J. Williams on the sideline to start after punishing him for his DUI arrest. KC has 20 or more in three of their last four and need to hit that mark again to get it done this week.

[EaglesPhan36]

Chiefs-Broncos booked at 44 instead of 44.5 at -106.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 12-3 [+8.70]
Prop Plays: 0-5 [-5.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

11.21.10

[1:00pm KICKOFF]
JETS-TEXANS OVER 46 [-108]
Jets should take advantage of the NFL's worst defense. Even though the Texans are faltering, they have weapons on offense and should be able to do a little damage against the J-E-T-S.

[4:00pm KICKOFF]
FALCONS-RAMS OVER 43 [-105]
Rams got thrown all over by Troy Smith and the Niners last week. Matt Ryan and his receivers should duplicate that and put up some points. Bradford and the Rams have scored 20 points exactly in five of their last seven overall. Falcons have scored 26 or more in three straight, but have yielded 21 points or more in four straight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 14-3 [+10.70]
Prop Plays: 0-5 [-5.00]

Love you Michael Turner for getting that off the push!

[gilbert91016]

Nice call!!
What do u think off the over tonight?

[EaglesPhan36]

Seems "too good" but I would always lean that way with the Eagles defense, they are still giving up quite a bit + their offense is so solid right now, it would seem weird if both teams don't score in the 20s. My personal play ...

[8:20pm KICKOFF]
SPECIAL TEAMS or DEFENSE SCORES TD [+155]
I think both defenses have the ability to create big plays, would favor the defensive TD over a special teams TD although I would watch the Eagles special teams and what they do with kickoffs ... their usual return man was real shaky last week and D-Jax is always a threat on punt returns if he gets a chance. Just have a feeling tonight that one of these teams is going to make a big play not on offense.

[EaglesPhan36]

Quitting the prop plays, not my thing apparently.

11.22.10

[8:30pm KICKOFF]
BRONCOS-CHARGERS OVER 50 [-105]
San Diego coming off the bye, should be licking their chops against a porous Denver defense that has allowed 20 or more in eight of nine games this season. In their last five straight, they have surrendered at least 24. The Chargers have given up 20 or better in five straight weeks. Denver's offense will likely need to do their work through the air where has still been pretty decent.

[gilbert91016]

Bol I'm on it not to trilled it almost seem to ez like the giants/eagles last nite

[EaglesPhan36]

11.25.10

[12:30pm KICKOFF]
PATRIOTS-LIONS OVER 50.5 [-102]
Big total, but the Pats are OVERs in four of five on the road while the Lions are four of four OVERs at home this season. Lions are good at putting up junk offensive numbers in blowouts, so let's get some gravy.

[udlock4life]

bol tomorrow

[gilbert91016]

What do u think about the saints/cowboys over?