Week 5 Mid-Week Leans

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  • uanl
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-10-09
    • 825

    #1
    Week 5 Mid-Week Leans
    i have been looking at these games and gathering as much info as i can and as of right now, these are my mid-week leans:

    Bills +1 (this is a play for sure, just waiting til it gets closer to game time cuz the line might get a little more favorable)

    Panthers +3 (right now the line at my book is +3 -125, so i might go with the ML cuz i think the panthers have a good shot to get a W in this spot, especially with the qb situations of the bears)

    Redskins ML (the line is 2.5 in most places, i feel theres a little more value in the ML if you cant get the +3)

    Browns +3 (similar situation to the browns/bengals game this past week, except we are already seeing a couple of 2.5 lines in some places, it wasn't until gametime this past sunday that this game showed some RLM)

    9ers -3 (i would buy the hook since its at 3.5 in most places, i think the 9ers get their first win of the season with gore being able to exploit that average defense of the eagles and the 9ers should be able to get pressure on kolb)

    Cardinals +7 (getting this game at 7 or 7.5 is important, the saints have been struggling big time and this game is in arizona, saints might win another close one..they haven't won a game by more than 5pts yet this season and i dont think it happens against the cardinals either)

    Raiders +6 (if this number gets to 7, its a play for sure..the chargers are horrible on the road, mentally i think its a weak team and it contributes to their road struggles, they lost @ KC, @ Seattle, and have the potential to lose outright @ oakland)

    Ravens -7 (this is the weakest of my leans, i just think the ravens defense will be able to exploit the fact that the broncos dont run at all and flacco showed positive stuff in his last game as he lead the ravens to that game winning drive against the steelers on the road)

    any thoughts???
  • jresse
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-20-10
    • 274

    #2
    u agree with the raiders game
    Comment
    • uanl
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-10-09
      • 825

      #3
      Originally posted by jresse
      u agree with the raiders game
      its been an early trend with them, opening week, everyone loves the chargers @ chiefs and they lose outright..then people are hesitant in week 2 because its a big spread against the jags i believe it was and its a blowout, then week 3 everyone loves the chargers again @ seattle and they lose outright, then they come home and people are a little hesitant because its another huge line and its a blowout again..and now everyone loves the chargers again @ oakland and the public might get burned again!
      Comment
      • uanl
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-10-09
        • 825

        #4
        looks like the panthers are now at -1 after the bears said cutler is not starting this sunday... i still like this game at -1 and i thought the panthers would win SU anyway ... unfortunately im gonna have to take it at a regular -110 instead of the +120 or so that it was yesterday when the spread was 3 ...

        play on

        Panthers -1 vs bears (1.5 units)

        im making this play now after confirming that cutler is not starting this weekend... the offense of the bears looked absolutely horrible this past sunday and while the panthers aren't a defense like the giants, they are facing a lifetime backup QB who really didn't show much on sunday either...bears defense should play the panthers tough and im expecting a really ugly game, but in the end i think the panthers have a few more viable weapons on offense to score at least some points, while the bears don't really have any imo...and for some reason as of right now, about 66% are on the bears...play the panthers and dont watch the game! lol

        Comment
        • hitman2010
          SBR MVP
          • 09-03-10
          • 1465

          #5
          Reskin ml and Ravens.
          Comment
          • uanl
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-10-09
            • 825

            #6
            Cardinals +7 (1 unit)

            the saints have not been impressive at all this season..they are a championship team and those teams find a way to win, but they aren't the same offense as last year and this is costing them to not cover these games..the loss of reggie bush is looking more significant than what ppl had anticipated and pierre thomas is banged up and is OUT for this game..the cardinals on the other hand have been terrible, coming off a blowout loss but they made a change at QB and while the new QB is a rookie, it CANT get worse than anderson lol .. becuz he's a rookie they might focus on the running game with beanie and hightower, teams have been able to rush well on that saints defense..i dont expect a SU win by the cards, but i think they'll stay within the number
            Comment
            • uanl
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 10-10-09
              • 825

              #7
              Redskins ML

              the packers can't run the football, they are thin on defense due to injury and they are on the road...the skins did a good job last week against the philly passing game by taking away the deep balls and they could have the same type of gameplan against the packers both on defense and on offense by pouding the ball ..alot of people are concerned with portis being out for a month, rumor has it that Torain is a really solid back and actually fits better into shanahan's system than portis does...some think that portis won't get his job back even if he does comeback healthy... add the fact that everyone and their mothers like the packers and this spread refuses to get to 3pts..look for a SU win for the home dog
              Comment
              • uanl
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-10-09
                • 825

                #8
                Bills +1

                the majority think the jags are on fire after beating the colts so surely they will beat the pathetic bills, when in reality its a perfect letdown spot for the jags..the bills only have 2 or 3 legit chances of winning a game this season, and this is one of them..and they know it, u think they wanna go 0-16? another homedog SU win
                Comment
                • uanl
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-10-09
                  • 825

                  #9
                  9ers -3

                  buy the half point if you need to...im thinking the 9ers at home not having won a game yet will play with a sense of urgency on national tv .. i think Gore can really run over that philly D and it looks like Mccoy could be out for the eagles....i just really think the 9ers finally win a game this season
                  Comment
                  • uanl
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-10-09
                    • 825

                    #10
                    Ravens -7

                    people argue that its a big letdown spot for the ravens...well i think its an even bigger letdown spot for the broncos after a big upset win on the road last week against the titans..its a second straight road game for them and have to go all the way east, while the ravens get to play in front of their home crowd and having leaders that know these are the games they MUST win if they want to be considered a contender because they are playing a lesser opponent...i believe in flacco, especially after what he did in Pitt last week under pressure..bottom line, broncos are a one dimensional and a defense like the ravens should be able to exploit that..ravens
                    Comment
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