Thoughts on Rams vs. Lions - Insight Appreciated

[gshock1]

I already made a huge play on the Lions (-3) here, but am interested to gather the forums thoughts here.

Here are my reasons:
1. This is a must win for Detroit and specifically for Schwartz. A loss to the Rams risks driving more fans away from the team, eliminates any goodwill built through close defeats and most importantly will have the media talking about another winless season.

2. I think the Rams are getting too much press and will not get up for this game. I truly believe they will take the Lions for granted.

3. The media outlets in Detroit are calling this a revenge game from last year. The Lions were the only team the Rams beat last year.

4. I think the Lions will score more points than the Rams are capable of scoring. Burleson is due to come back this week and he's great at capitalizing the underneath stuff. This will free up Calvin Johnson and the TE's to make plays.

5. I think the smart money went on the Lions early on. This is what I have seen from The Greek.

POINTSPREADS
10/03 20:14 +3 -110 / -3 -110
10/03 20:38 +3 +105 / -3 -125
10/04 10:57 +3 +100 / -3 -120
10/04 16:39 +3 -110 / -3 -110

Notice how all the value went on the Rams (plus money) almost immediately after the lines were posted.

Anyway, I welcome any discussion on the battle of the bottom feeders. I am feeling pretty good about this one, but would be willing to buy out of it if someone offers good counter points.

[hitman2010]

[gilbert91016]

Like the the Detroit But I think the over is the way to go on this game??

[dmtrader]

I'm a Detroiter who has watched the Lions play their hearts out three straight weeks as double-digit underdogs. They're emotionally spent. They gave it all they got. Now look out for a game or two where they "mail it in."

Bradford will have a big game (same with Steven Jackson). The Lions defense (once you get past a pretty good def line) is downright awful. Remember, they are 29th in the league in both pass AND rush defense.

The Rams pass rush will punish Shaun Hill. It's not like they have played anyone formidable yet (Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski and Matt Hasselbeck), but nonetheless, they are 14th against the pass, mostly due to their pass rush.

Shaun Hill will still have a good game statistically(Sheffler and Calvin Johnson are good fantasy plays this week), but will pay the price on the field. He will be face-planted more often then not.

The Lions should never be laying points. Ever.

Detroiters love the Leos. Love 'em. We fondly remember Joey Harrington and 3 win seasons. Fans will still support the team, they have for years with mediocre (or worse) performance on the field.

I'm on the Rams +3

[gshock1]

I'm a Detroiter who has watched the Lions play their hearts out three straight weeks as double-digit underdogs. They're emotionally spent. They gave it all they got. Now look out for a game or two where they "mail it in."

Bradford will have a big game (same with Steven Jackson). The Lions defense (once you get past a pretty good def line) is downright awful. Remember, they are 29th in the league in both pass AND rush defense.

The Rams pass rush will punish Shaun Hill. It's not like they have played anyone formidable yet (Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski and Matt Hasselbeck), but nonetheless, they are 14th against the pass, mostly due to their pass rush.

Shaun Hill will still have a good game statistically(Sheffler and Calvin Johnson are good fantasy plays this week), but will pay the price on the field. He will be face-planted more often then not.

The Lions should never be laying points. Ever.

Detroiters love the Leos. Love 'em. We fondly remember Joey Harrington and 3 win seasons. Fans will still support the team, they have for years with mediocre (or worse) performance on the field.

I'm on the Rams +3

Thanks for your insight. Not exactly what I wanted to see. These are the same Rams though who couldn't beat Oakland on the road. I think Detroit is much better than the Raiders. Its true the Rams D-Line is good, but I can see Best running wild on the turf much like he did against the Eagles at home.

[dmtrader]

I'm really not trying to rain on your parade. But...

Tue, Oct 5
RB Jahvid Best apparently came out of Sunday's game without doing more damage to his sprained toe. Even though he said the toe wasn't a factor, he wasn't moving nearly as well as he's capable.


And...


Fantasy advice: Javid Best was one of those guys I was waiting for in my drafts this season. Luckily, he was taken well before his time in both leagues and I missed the pleasure of watching his current demise. Best has now bombed in three weeks and had one exceptional game. I still like this young back, but his current toe injury and poor performances of late do not support his start in my book. Look for Best to have another performance like last week, 50-60 yards with a few receptions.

[Waterstpub87]

I was leaning towards rams on the money line. So many of detroits players out

[gshock1]

I was leaning towards rams on the money line. So many of detroits players out

Outside of Stafford, no one of note is out.

[hostile takeover]

I completely disagree with your first two points.

I don't believe the 5th game of the year is a 'must win'. I realize the Lions want to win, but I promise the Rams want to win as well as they are smelling first place for the first time in half a decade.

The Rams will have no problem getting up for this game. They will not take the Lions for granted. The Rams are in no position to take anyone for granted. That locker room knows what it's been like for the past two+ years.

Revenge could definitely be a factor, too bad Stafford isn't playing.

That being said, I don't like the Rams matchup for this weekend. Calvin Johnson's size on the outside is too much for the Rams secondary. Best may be able to gash the Rams all day inside. Pedigrew at TE should be able to occupy a Rams LB to lesson blitz packages. Good matchups all over the place for Detroit.

The Rams are a couple bone-head plays from being 4-0, all be it against very weak competition.

I see this being close. Could go either way.

[Shahbucks]

Funny how this is one game I'm excited to watch. But I have STL 23-21 and I think the ML +136 is the best value of this game.

Ndamukong Suh is already a good player. I can't wait to see if he reaches his potential. He already commands extra attention(TE help and dbl teams). Along with Vanden Bosch they are the most underrated d-line in the league.
Det needs to get C. Johnson the ball early and often. Maybe try more multiple receiver sets instead of using both TE because he's getting TRIPLE TEAMED! And also let him run more slants and screens. J. Best needs to run the ball because the loins cannot play catch up. Even though them playing catch up is the reason they are the favorite.

Like Suh, Sam Braford is already good and he will be one of the best QB's in the league soon. They need to continue to trust him and let him manage the game. Steaven Jackson has yet to run for 100yrd this year and Det looks prime for the pickings. The Lions allowing 135 yrd on the ground(4.7 yds per carry). So if he get on track I love the Rams to win this game outright. They have the better Defence, better coach, better RB and better QB. What else to say? Det is on track to turn things around but they are not there yet.

[bhssoccer89]

i think the lions finally win one here. they have been playing pretty good

[zoso11871]

Over

[gshock1]

Looking good so far. Hope the Lions can keep this up.

[gshock1]

TD Lions!!!!

12 units are smelling real good right about now!

[macoeric]

GJ my man, lions are playing really good

[TwampSix]

Let's go lions!!!

[gshock1]

I think its pretty safe to say my assessment of this game was spot on. I thought the Lions would win by 7 - 14, but did not expect this. Needless to day, I think its safe to LOCK IT UP!!!!

[Robust]

great win gshock1!



Robust