Weeks 5 NFL Bets & Strong Leans - Lines Are Out

[NYSportsGuy210]

Here is my week 4 NFL post:
So SBR Forum Sports Book has the lines out for MLB playoff games and next week's NFL games.

Here is what I like in both......

NFL Week 5:

(a) Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) vs. KC Chiefs: I am leaning on the Colts to take this one and buy the point or half point to cover. Afterall the Cinderella CHiefs have to have their glass slipper come off sometime....Peyton and the Colts at home, especially after a loss to JAX, should be amped for this and put down the hammer.

Prediction: Colts win 34-10.


(b) Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins: This line immediately jumped out at me at how low this is. It seems like a clear case here of one superior team coming off of a loss week taking on a team that is average at best (Redskins) that happened to beat another average team (Eagles are overrated) and now they are being overvalued. Packers clearly are the more superior talented football team and I expect most likely a double digit win by the Packers.

Prediction: Packers in a blowout 31 - Redskins 13


(c) Atlanta (-3) @ Cleveland: Falcons and Saints are the only two teams I see with playoff potential in the NFC south and both should contend going down to the final 2-3 weeks of the season for the division. That being said....both New Orleans and Atlanta should win this week. Browns are clearly overrated and just happen to beat a Jekyll and Hyde Bengals team that they historically always play tough no matter how bad or good either team is. Back to reality this week for Cleveland....Falcons should take care of them easily.

Prediction: Falcons 24 - Browns 6


Strong LEANS: (Not sure if I want to bet these games just yet but am leaning towards them)

(a) New Orleans (-7) @ Arizona: Rookie QB going for Arizona and Saints are well....the Saints. Could be ugly ealry for Arizona and/or a high scoring affair and betting the OVER (45.5) might be smart. Thoughts or opinions on this game would be appreciated.

(b) Broncos @ Ravens (-7): The #1 defense in the NFL (Ravens) versus the #1 passing game in the NFL (Broncos). I just think Baltimore is too much at home versus a Kyle Orton led offense. Baltimore....will they cover or not?



[Mind you I went 5-15 in NFL betting weeks 1-3 but this week I went 5-1 and 5-0 in NCAA college football betting so take that as you may. I feel as both seasons go further and further along I will only get better and better as I usually do every year.]


MLB:

(a) Looking to bet on Phillies (Halladay pitching) for (-1.5 runs) to cover in game 1 at home versus the Reds (Cueto pitching). Expecting a Phillies 3-1 or 5-2 win in Game 1.

(b) Looking to take the Rays to win at home in game 1 hosting the Texas Rangers by (-1.5 runs) or more with David Price going against Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee has struggled mightily against Tampa this year.


What do you guys think of these bets? Feel free to add more bets you like in either MLB, NCAA football or NFL for this coming week.

[castle]

Loving the Packers @ -2.5. Leaning toward ATL, still early. Good luck.

[Capybara]

Wow, got your week 5 stuff out early! GL!

[bradnowell]

rays at the low price seems too easy

[jeeves]

fightin' phils!!!

[Mustardman]

Love GB (-2.5). The Redskins secondary is extremely suspect having been bested by Bradford and shredded by Schaub and Romo.

Also on ATL (-2.5) for the same reasons you listed. Cleveland just surrendered 220 yards to T.O. Think what Roddy White and Gonzalez will do to them.

I'm also laying NO (-6.5) Good chance of facing off against an undrafted Rookie QB, ARZ defense has been atrocious. New Orleans' run defense is suspect but Arizona figures to be down and forced to throw.

Good Luck

[Cicima6709]

Im on ATL and GB.

Not sure about INDY, thats a high line, could see a backdoor or something.

What do you think of JAX/BUF?

[jsmithj88]

i would definately lean towards the saints. they had a lot of TOs in that panthers game and still pulled out a win. saints D is banged up but i dont see max hall being able to beat the champs esp. without a running game to help him out.

[slacker00]

All favs, eh? Do you do any injury analysis? Injuries are a major factor for some of these teams.

[Nittany Lion]

I posted this in another thread:

Baltimore at home will lay the smack down on Denver, if Denver beats Baltimore I will be amazed. The Ravens offense will have to play horrible to lose against the donkeys, like more then 5 turnovers bad or pull a Green Bay and set a record for penalties.

The Ravens are going to be a big play for me this Sunday, I'm probably going to bet more then I've ever bet before on that game.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Im on ATL and GB.

Not sure about INDY, thats a high line, could see a backdoor or something.

What do you think of JAX/BUF?

I agree to some extent on Indianapolis. That is the least confident of the plays I am throwing out there.

In fact I might replace that bet with OVER on total points in the NYG-Texans game.

[HawkEye]

The last time i checked Greenbay won on sunday so i dont know what you mean by greenbay being the clear case because they came off a lost because i know it's not the skins because they crushed the eagles the same day. And yes -2.5 seems to good to be true like MNF on week 3 when they got crushed in chicago. Greenbay will be a square bet and wash will be a sharp bet. Which side will you be on?

[cowboyfan08]

Bol,unloading big on atlanta.

[OTL]

And yes -2.5 seems to good to be true like MNF on week 3 when they got crushed in chicago.

GB didn't get crushed in Chicago, they only lost by a couple of points... They would have easily won and covered that game if they hadn't been penalized for 150 yards or had that interception in the red zone mistakenly ruled an incomplete pass.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Plus CHI -Green Bay was a division Rivalry game. Much like in PHI-WASH game all stats go out the window and the games end up going either way in inter-division rivalries.

Packers-Redskin isn't one of those types of games. More sound logic should dictate the outcome of this game.

[hitman2010]

Leans and play so early, good luck to your plays.

[HawkEye]

GB didn't get crushed in Chicago, they only lost by a couple of points... They would have easily won and covered that game if they hadn't been penalized for 150 yards or had that interception in the red zone mistakenly ruled an incomplete pass.

Oh comon a loss is a loss. Nobody cares if the game was close or not or how the game was decided by penalty. We are all on here because we want to know who will cover the spread.

[JohnDoe1]

Buf and Cle are my 2 biggest plays this week. Both will win SU.

Atl is coming off 2 big last second wins and going the road. I don't care what you say about cleveland, they have a solid running back there and will win this game SU.

Jax on the other hand is not a good team. They always play the Colts tough. That was their SB last week. Now they're going on the road and Buf knows this is their best chance to win a game and with the QB change a few weeks ago will get it done.

You want a ML dog parlay...Buf and Cle.

[Bankable]

Washington +3-125
kansas city +8-110
arizona +7-110
minnesota +4½-110

[Rig]

lean b I think is a lot of covering to do...

[NYSportsGuy210]

Buf and Cle are my 2 biggest plays this week. Both will win SU.

Atl is coming off 2 big last second wins and going the road. I don't care what you say about cleveland, they have a solid running back there and will win this game SU.

Jax on the other hand is not a good team. They always play the Colts tough. That was their SB last week. Now they're going on the road and Buf knows this is their best chance to win a game and with the QB change a few weeks ago will get it done.

You want a ML dog parlay...Buf and Cle.

I can't see Cleveland winning this game. Unless the Falcons are notoriously known for having a bad run defense there is nothing to suggest that CLE wins this game. I am not touching Bills- aguars...in fact I'd rather see paint dry than even think about such a contest.