Math Man's Stat picks for NFL season 2010

million2one · 10-01-10, 03:45 PM

Week 4 Plays:

Dirty Birds - Loving the ATL here as my top play (4x) @ -7

Da' Bears - This team is 3 - 0 and I will ride them getting points right now (2x) @ +3

Jetsons - This team from NY could be for real right now (1x) @ -5

Rams - That's right, they put up 31 on Washington last week, and Seattle stinks just as bad (1x) @ +1.5

Peyton Manning's Team - Jacksonville just may be the worst team in the league this year (0.5x) @ -7

million2one · 10-01-10, 04:10 PM

Week 4 Leans:

These are close to making the grade but not quite enough to be worthy of my money, unless you can talk me into it:

Skins
Steel Curtain
Panthers
Raiders

alex81 · 10-01-10, 04:11 PM

Be careful... Atlanta, Chicago and Indy are public plays. You need to incorporate situational factors as well, something that statistics won't reveal.

SF has a new Offensive Coordinator so this could spark their offense. Also, SF is 0-3 ATS this year... 49ers will be desperate!

Chicago shouldn't have won last Monday. Green Bay practically gave them the game with all the penalties it took. Giants have been terrible and will also be looking to rebound against the Bears coming off a short week.

Jacksonville has been absolutely terrible but historically the Jags show up to play against Indy.

hitman2010 · 10-01-10, 04:12 PM

what do you mean when you post plays and then leans, i thought it would be leans and plays. So do u bet on the lean or the play???

million2one · 10-01-10, 04:16 PM

I am only betting on the Plays, the teams who I have a lean on have some stats in their favor but not all

Thanks for the warnings Alex. Being I am in the spotlight now, I'll probably get crushed this week.
Atlanta should kill these guys but I don't like the fact that SF has not covered yet, and the line is only 7, maybe I scale down my bet.

million2one · 10-07-10, 04:31 PM

Week 4: 2 - 3 for -4.5 units

Big props to Alex81 for saying beware of Atlanta, Indy, and the Bears; all three of my losers. Hope you made some dough buddy.

Week 5: Nothing official yet but my big plays look to be Tennessee and Philly (Compared to the line the stats lean heavily in their favor)
Got to look at a few more things such as situations, any thoughts?

hitman2010 · 10-07-10, 04:56 PM

keep it up Math Man.

million2one · 10-09-10, 03:24 PM

Week 5 Plays:

Remember the Titans - Dallas hasn't impressed me and I feel the line is too high on them (x5) @ +7

Texans - Loving how this team can score on offense and the G-men have been too inconsistent (x2) @ -3

Bucking Broncos - Baltimore coming off a huge divisional win and Denver has been putting up points in their last few games (x2) @ +8

million2one · 10-11-10, 10:19 AM

Week 5: 1 - 2 for +1 unit

Hit my big play on Titans and mad at myself for shying away from the eagles, all in all plus units on the day.

NFL year to date: 3 - 5 for -3.5 units

million2one · 10-13-10, 05:24 PM

I like alot of games for Week 6, any input is appreciated.
Still have some research to look at but I am liking the value of the line for:

Detroit Lions
St. Louis Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders

These are my top picks thus far, but nothing official as of yet

million2one · 10-15-10, 02:51 PM

Week 6 plays:

Ramers - San Diego 0 - 3 on the road and the Rams 2 - 1 at home getting more then a touchdown? I love home dogs so this line looks like a gift to me (x2) @ +9

Dirty Birds - O-line struggled last week with King Dunlap in there and I like Atlanta's Defense to come up big, besides they are the better birds at this point (x1) @ +3

May add a play on Tennessee depending on how I do with these two.

alex81 · 10-15-10, 03:56 PM

Hi Mathman I'm back

I've been so-so this season... I pretty much agree with your picks this week although I do wonder if oddsmakers are trying to set a few traps.

1) St. Louis. I also bet on the Rams but it seems almost too easy as SD has lost all of its road games against garbage opponents (KC, Seattle, Oakland). Maybe, they'll tear apart the Rams. I hope not!

2) Oakland. I also took the Raiders but this is the first time that anyone can recall an 0-5 team being favored by 6.5. Do the oddsmakers want us to bet Oakland? Is SF due to break out and clobber an opponent? I hope not.

3) Detroit. I'd probably stay away after seeing what the Giants have done over the last 2 weeks. Not sure how effective Calvin Johnson will be if he does play.

million2one · 10-17-10, 05:08 PM

Nice call with the Rams, could have been a HUGE play!!!!
Oakland looking good right now as well, I did like them should have taken 'em, nice call.
And Detroit somehow covers?? I like what I am seeing from your picks nice job.

It's funny that all these teams that were horrible last year are covering, gotta start taking some moneylines.

million2one · 10-19-10, 04:14 PM

Week 6: 1 - 1 for +1 unit

NFL year to date: 4 - 6 for -2.5 units

Not liking so many plays next week so I may just hammer the sh1t out of Pittsburgh. Any reason not too?
They are definitely my top play with a few more to come.

million2one · 10-21-10, 05:28 PM

Week 7 plays:

Steel Curtain - Why not? Probably the best team in the NFL going up against an up and down Miami (x4) @ -3

Brownies - Now the Saints are a 14 point favorite? I may get killed here but I love the two touchdowns with CLE (x1.5) @ +14

There will be a few more but these are what Im confident in right now.
I like Seattle too just trying to figure out how much.

million2one · 10-24-10, 03:08 PM

Adding a 4:00 play

Seattle Seahawks (x3) @ -7

million2one · 10-27-10, 05:57 PM

Week 7: 2 - 1 for +0.5 unit

NFL year to date: 6 - 7 for -2 units

Looks like the best play for me will be on the Raiders,
I like Titans but don't like the fact SD has lost its last 3.

million2one · 10-28-10, 04:26 PM

Week 8 plays: Getting these in now before line moves against me

Anal Raiders - They did just put up a record number of points and can smell blood in the AFC west, they covered their last three and I'm riding the wave (x2) @ -130

Cowardly Lions - They are 5 - 1 ATS and their one win was home so I figure I have a good shot (x2) @ -130

NFL year to date: 6 - 7 for -2 units

vboyt · 10-28-10, 05:01 PM

I like the Lions play

million2one · 11-03-10, 05:33 PM

Week 8: 2 - 0 for +4 units

NFL year to date: 8 - 7 for +2 units

Tough calls this weekend, leaning small on Tampa Bay and I hate to say it but Dallas

million2one · 11-07-10, 12:05 PM

Week 9 plays:

Cowardly Lions - Gonna ride this team until the wheels fall off, and I got great line movement in my favor, very excited to see how this play turns out (2x) @ +6.5

NFL year to date: 8 - 7 for +2 units

Winnipeg Jets · 11-07-10, 12:07 PM

sanchez ain't nothing much lately

million2one · 11-07-10, 08:11 PM

Easy win today. Ride this team, Detroit is a money making machine.
I would take a small flyer on Dallas tonight, but just taking my two units and being happy for the weekend.

NFL year to date: 9 - 7 for +4 units

million2one · 11-11-10, 05:22 PM

Week 9 plays: Looking at a few games I would like to take, but my no brainer has to be Tennessee and I am making that play now before any more movement. Dare I take the Lions again?

Remember the Titans - This team has been really good against good opponents, coming off a bye, with randy moss, I just don't understand this line (3x) @ -120

NFL year to date: 9 - 7 for +4 units

million2one · 11-19-10, 04:46 PM

Week 11 Plays: Should of got this in earlier, damn line movement, I am learning to play early if anything.

Anal Raiders - This a good football team playing well in their last few games, they can be physical and with great run game should be able to keep it close (x4) @ +7.5

Cowardly Lions - Going back to the well with a great ATS team, and Dallas will come back to earth after their huge emotional win (x3) @ +7

NFL YTD: 9 - 8 +1 unit