WEEK 4 LINE MOVEMENT
Four games on the Week 4 schedule have spreads that have moved by a full point. Interestingly, for three of these games, the line has moved in the opposite direction of where the money is going. These fall into the category of the “smart money” opportunities that we presented a week ago in which you go against the popular choice and side with the direction that the line is moving.
Last week, the line in the Detroit at Minnesota game jumped from 10 to11 in favor of the Vikings despite the fact that the Lions were the more popular choice. This suggested a play on the Vikings, which proved to be correct.
This week, Houston has dropped from -4 to -3 at Oakland while the Texans have garnered a vast majority of the wagering activity. We’ve seen plenty of success from home underdogs so far this season (13-7-1 ATS, 11-10 SU), plus Oakland is tied for second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game at 260.7.
The 1-2 New York Giants have moved from -3 to -4 at home against Chicago even as the 3-0 Bears are getting the lion’s share of the betting. Chicago was lucky to get a win on Monday night against Green Bay, while New York is coming off of a 29-10 loss to Tennessee in which it outgained the Titans by a whopping 471-271 margin. Three turnovers and 11 penalties for 86 yards did not help the Giants cause either.
Finally, San Diego has gone from -9 to -8 at home against Arizona even though most of the betting public is on the Chargers. A look at the FoxSheets shows that the Cardinals have been dominant in the 10th month in recent years: Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Arizona 28.8, Opponent 18.2.
The only game for which the line has moved a full point toward the side that is getting the most action is New England (pick to -1) at Miami.
Four games on the Week 4 schedule have spreads that have moved by a full point. Interestingly, for three of these games, the line has moved in the opposite direction of where the money is going. These fall into the category of the “smart money” opportunities that we presented a week ago in which you go against the popular choice and side with the direction that the line is moving.
Last week, the line in the Detroit at Minnesota game jumped from 10 to11 in favor of the Vikings despite the fact that the Lions were the more popular choice. This suggested a play on the Vikings, which proved to be correct.
This week, Houston has dropped from -4 to -3 at Oakland while the Texans have garnered a vast majority of the wagering activity. We’ve seen plenty of success from home underdogs so far this season (13-7-1 ATS, 11-10 SU), plus Oakland is tied for second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game at 260.7.
The 1-2 New York Giants have moved from -3 to -4 at home against Chicago even as the 3-0 Bears are getting the lion’s share of the betting. Chicago was lucky to get a win on Monday night against Green Bay, while New York is coming off of a 29-10 loss to Tennessee in which it outgained the Titans by a whopping 471-271 margin. Three turnovers and 11 penalties for 86 yards did not help the Giants cause either.
Finally, San Diego has gone from -9 to -8 at home against Arizona even though most of the betting public is on the Chargers. A look at the FoxSheets shows that the Cardinals have been dominant in the 10th month in recent years: Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Arizona 28.8, Opponent 18.2.
The only game for which the line has moved a full point toward the side that is getting the most action is New England (pick to -1) at Miami.
