I'm sitting here with my boys, chillin', talking about Week 3

[No coincidences]

Just told them that I went 8-2-1 the last two weeks taking home dogs, and that there are (at least) six for this week. I read them off to my buddies, and not one of them said they'd take any of the home dogs for Week 3 -- even after I told them how successful cashing home dogs has been so far this season.



Being a natural square is a beautiful thing.

I will say this as a warning, though: if there's one thing the NFL and oddsmakers don't like, it's trends. So I highly doubt the home dog angle will continue to cash at such a furious clip.

[Saluki09]

Liking almost all the home dogs next week, GL as always Coin

[No coincidences]

Liking almost all the home dogs next week, GL as always Coin

We'll see where the lines go from here.

Home dogs + public loving the other side + RLM typically = a good play, though remember, each play and game is an isolated incident.

[sportfan]

give me a couples wns next week nocoin , I'm down this week

[uanl]

looks like the Bucs are gonna fit into that equation of home dog + public loving the other side +RLM

accoring to http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm the steelers opened at -3 and with 85%, its down to -1 ... according to the sbr odds page, its at -1 steelers in most places with a couple that have -2.5 and -3 ...

[No coincidences]

looks like the Bucs are gonna fit into that equation of home dog + public loving the other side +RLM

accoring to http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm the steelers opened at -3 and with 85%, its down to -1 ... according to the sbr odds page, its at -1 steelers in most places with a couple that have -2.5 and -3 ...

Saw that.

Not sure I'm sold on Tampa yet.

Is Dixon out?

[uanl]

Saw that.

Not sure I'm sold on Tampa yet.

Is Dixon out?

yeah im definitely not sold on tampa but i've been playing these type of plays during the first two weeks, yet i see myself having trouble staying away from pitt lol ...dixon is out for a few week..its going to be batch or leftwich...

[chopperocker]

u got me sniffin @ TB+1 now!!! lets cash that ticket!!! like MN/DET over and SF+-?

[m3xtreme]

theres a lot of good home dogs next week.. dont see as many traps as the last 2 weeks..

GL

[lakerboy]

One of my waiters asked me last tuesday" hey can you believe the chargers lost" . I said yeah but whats the big deal. He tells me him and his pal lost $800 each on them -5.5.

I ask him why he took the chargers. He says" dont tell me you took the chiefs cause i dont see how you could"

I told him to take the niners next week. I will see him on wednesday.

[uanl]

One of my waiters asked me last tuesday" hey can you believe the chargers lost" . I said yeah but whats the big deal. He tells me him and his pal lost $800 each on them -5.5.

I ask him why he took the chargers. He says" dont tell me you took the chiefs cause i dont see how you could"

I told him to take the niners next week. I will see him on wednesday.

squares...they just never learn...

[No coincidences]

One of my waiters asked me last tuesday" hey can you believe the chargers lost" . I said yeah but whats the big deal. He tells me him and his pal lost $800 each on them -5.5.

I ask him why he took the chargers. He says" dont tell me you took the chiefs cause i dont see how you could"

I told him to take the niners next week. I will see him on wednesday.

Just human nature, I guess. A year ago, my immediate reaction was often similar -- until I started losing those specific plays on a regular basis.

[rallymonkey]

nocoin, you mentioned that linesmakers dont like trends...although is there evidence of books throwing out lines just to bait linewatchers?

I feel like if the books are killing the pubs, they'll just keep doing it, especially in the NFL, where lots of square money is

I guess a side question would be - and i dont know if there's an answer - if they throw out bait lines that kill linewatchers, will they make more than if they just keep slaughtering the pubs?

i hope that makes sense. lol.

[No coincidences]

nocoin, you mentioned that linesmakers dont like trends...although is there evidence of books throwing out lines just to bait linewatchers?

I feel like if the books are killing the pubs, they'll just keep doing it, especially in the NFL, where lots of square money is

I guess a side question would be - and i dont know if there's an answer - if they throw out bait lines that kill linewatchers, will they make more than if they just keep slaughtering the pubs?

i hope that makes sense. lol.

It's a good question.

LB would probably be able to answer it better than I could.

[Goat Milk]

The Broncos with the +6 look decent. I guess one of their receivers just past away that is huge for the spirit of this team. I remember when that happened with a few different guys. Denver might not win but they will battle. Jax might be solid. I would not put any faith in the Rams. I am not gonna fade Shannahan in this spot.

Still some of these should hit.

[rallymonkey]

i know you were on MIL and CLE today (as was I, damn it), but I feel like bait lines like that are profitable every now and then for books in MLB, not so much in NFL when folks are betting heavy every weekend?

[rallymonkey]

It's a good question.

LB would probably be able to answer it better than I could.

ah yeah ask the grandmaster, lol. thanks for taking the time though nocoin

[No coincidences]

The Broncos with the +6 look decent. I guess one of their receivers just past away that is huge for the spirit of this team. I remember when that happened with a few different guys. Denver might not win but they will battle. Jax might be solid. I would not put any faith in the Rams. I am not gonna fade Shannahan in this spot.

Still some of these should hit.

I looked at Denver too, GM. Just hate to fade the Colts. They're cover machines. But I agree that this kid's death might serve as inspiration, and it's always good to get points at Mile High.

[Wulfman14]

what do you all think about the jets +1 against miami. i am liking the jets but want some insight

[No coincidences]

i know you were on MIL and CLE today (as was I, damn it), but I feel like bait lines like that are profitable every now and then for books in MLB, not so much in NFL when folks are betting heavy every weekend?

Probably.

I don't know -- baseball's a mind fvck.

[No coincidences]

what do you all think about the jets +1 against miami. i am liking the jets but want some insight

Ask Goat -- he likes the Jets.

[lakerboy]

nocoin, you mentioned that linesmakers dont like trends...although is there evidence of books throwing out lines just to bait linewatchers?

I feel like if the books are killing the pubs, they'll just keep doing it, especially in the NFL, where lots of square money is

I guess a side question would be - and i dont know if there's an answer - if they throw out bait lines that kill linewatchers, will they make more than if they just keep slaughtering the pubs?

i hope that makes sense. lol.

the linewatchers bet more money so books wanna hammer them. yes they can make more but linewatchers like me arent stupid. i know a phoney line when i see it. sometimes i dont react well on it but most often i know whats up. the key is trying to match the totals and spreads together with team totals and trying to figure out possible scenarios. people think watching lines is easy but i do lots of work. lots.

[Goat Milk]

colts will win for sure i think but i think it'll be close. maybe a teaser with that and minnesota.

[Goat Milk]

what about minnesota tt over and jax tt over? Favre will throw 2+ tds ap 2+ tds. they always murk us.

[lakerboy]

what about minnesota tt over and jax tt over? Favre will throw 2+ tds ap 2+ tds. they always murk us.

goat i say we take vikes -10.5 fukkers are screwing with our head with that 10.5. they know we wont play it. the thing is that minny will win by 20 plus.

[rallymonkey]

the linewatchers bet more money so books wanna hammer them. yes they can make more but linewatchers like me arent stupid. i know a phoney line when i see it. sometimes i dont react well on it but most often i know whats up. the key is trying to match the totals and spreads together with team totals and trying to figure out possible scenarios. people think watching lines is easy but i do lots of work. lots.

Cool, thanks for the insight. I dont doubt for a second how much work u do...following your MLB thread is like going to class for me; in fact, I never really took into account series prices and such until you mentioned it. Glad you're cool with helping us out.

i guess one more question, more out of curiosity - do the majority of lines, with proper analysis, tell you whats up? or is most of the board full of sharp lines that end up being coin flips with a few tell-tale lines here and there that you decide to jump on?

I hope that isnt a stupid question. I just feel like you always know what's up, and if things go bad, you always know what specifically went wrong.

[dodger33]

goat i say we take vikes -10.5 fukkers are screwing with our head with that 10.5. they know we wont play it. the thing is that minny will win by 20 plus.

Locked them in at 10. I think you are right. They are going to be pissed off.

[slacker00]

Locked them in at 10. I think you are right. They are going to be pissed off.

It doesn't matter how pissed a team is when their WRs are a mash unit. I'm just sayin, be careful unless you've got some special insight into what's going on with Minny @ WR. Remember Rice is out for several more weeks, Harvin is questionable, Berrian has more drops than catches so far this year. That leaves Greg Lewis and Greg Camarillo who are basically guys that should be playing in the UFL with Jeff Garcia. I don't care how pissed any of these guys are, that can't make up for a basic lack of WR talent. Then again, Favre might throw for 300 just to his TEs & RBs.

I'm on the Lions +10 1/2

[barza01]

The lions WR positions aren't much better though. I'd take MIN to cover the spread.

[kempf]

really like jax and den. who knows what Kolb will come out looking like and we all know phi D can be had by the te position and at the moment Garrard and Lewis are a force. Den certainly has the weapons with Royal looking like his old self and the rookie bursting on the seen last game, Orten is always a mystery to me but he seems to be getting it done, indys pass rushers just are not as fierce off of the carpet, i look for this to be a pretty close game.

wouldnt go against the skins at stl in fact will probably play wash but really like that under. you can have the pit/tb game i wouldnt touch it with a ten foot pole...

det/minny the play to me is the under, minny d is playing very well and until minny proves it to me i will not believe in there offense, look for another sloppy game with AP controling the clock and a 20-10 20-13 type game.

same with car/cincy, cincy pretty tempting but they havnt reached trustworthy status to me(even though i did play them against bal). like the under as car offense is a mess and there d is respectable for the most part.

[hubie69]

I'm not sure how you can fade on indy though. McDaniels does not have a good team there.