A decent 5-3 last week including an overtime loss. This week's picks include a rare max bet. I only had one last season and that bet covered by 26 points. Fingers crossed....
5 units VIKINGS -5.5 over Dolphins
Welcome home for Vikings, where they went 9-0 last season. The Vikings get three days extra rest and prep, particularly welcome if they happen to have any players over forty who missed training camp - I'll have to check.
The Dolphins were reasonably efficient in winning at Buffalo, where neither their offense nor newly-Nolanised defense (they're "still getting comfortable with it" they say) faced the stiffest test. With a divisional win under their belts, I don't fancy the Dolphins here making a second straight road trip, for a non-conference game.
Mystic Limey forsees: Miami 13 - 27 Minnesota
3 units BROWNS -2 over Chiefs
I'd normally be opposing the Chiefs more heavily on the back of a Monday Night win in which they were outyardaged almost 2-1, converted just one of eleven third downs and "amassed" 62 passing yards. On the other hand (a) hey, it's the Browns (b) while Seneca Wallace is a decent backup QB, this is his first start in a new offense and (c) Romeo Crennel, KC DC, knows at least something about Cleveland, no matter how much has changed since Mangini replaced him. Still, Browns performance on the road in sticky Tampa was good enough to merit a small play here.
Strange but true: Cleveland were the only team besides New England not to give up a sack last week
Mystic Limey forsees: Cleveland 23 - 10 Kansas City
3 units EAGLES -6.5 over Lions
Keep it simple, stupid. A simplistic reading of this game says that Philadelphia lost last week mostly because Kevin Kolb made a poor start to the game and season. Vick was electrifying in relief, and while the Lions have had all week to prepare in the knowledge of the QB change, they've also had to switch signal-callers themselves. Not too much wrong with Shaun Hill but the Eagles will be desperate to get a conference win under their belts, no taking this lightly, so the superior squad should dominate the game.
Mystic Limey forsees: Philadelphia 35 - 13 Detroit
4 units BENGALS +2.5 over Ravens
Nice win last week against the New York Mouths, but Ravens still allowed over 5 yards per rush while managing less than 1.5 yards per carry themselves. They also benefitted from an extraordinary array of Jets penalties. The fact that this is a second road game, with a short week of preparation, makes me lean towards the home team. Encouraging that the Bengals seem to have the measure of these opponents, winning home and away last season, and that Baltimore are always capable of a foot-shooting exhibition of penalties themselves.
Strange but true: I own a Chad Johnson jersey
Mystic Limey forsees: Cincinnatti 24 - 20 Baltimore
16 units BRONCOS -3.5 over Seahawks
This line amazes me; I guess it's a case of "Seattle won last week, Denver lost". That's level one thinking. Meanwhile on level two, the 'Hawks got a home win against a 49ers team that appeared to be staging a tribute to the Three Stooges whilst Denver performed very creditably in a tough away game in Jacksonville. Seattle are a team in huge transition, with offensive line question marks, a quarterback liable to get injured every third week, and a false sense of security with a win under their belts, travelling to the thin air of Denver in blazing sunshine for a non-conference road game....
If you like their chances you're a braver man than me. If you like their uniforms, you're insane.
Strange but true: Denver passed for the league's third-highest yards per attempt last week
Mystic Limey forsees: Denver 27 - 10 Seattle
5 units PANTHERS -3 over Buccanneers
The Panthers will be gritting their teeth, protecting the QB and trying to play ball-control on Sunday - so who better to see getting of the bus than the Buccs, who were dead-last in the NFL in stopping the run last season. Tampa also don't have the same ability as the Giants to get after the passer, so Moore won't face quite such a testing day. A home win over Cleveland that was keyed by two critical turnovers doesn't make Tampa Bay strong contenders for a road win here.
Strange but true: Matt Moore completed passes for ten first downs last week
Mystic Limey forsees: Carolina 24 - 13 Tampa Bay
4 units RAIDERS -3.5 over Rams
Supporting the Raiders could almost qualify automatically as 'scary play of the week'. Still, Oakland's 5-11 last season doesn't look too bad when you study the schedule. For various reasons, I expect them to perform better this season in general. St Louis also seem bound to improve - it would be hard not to - but week two on the road, rookie QB with three INTS on debut.. I don't think Rams renaissance starts here.
Strange but true: Raiders achieved fourth-highest yards-per-carry last week in the process of getting thumped at Tennessee
Mystic Limey forsees: Oakland 20 - 9 St Louis
4 units ML 'parlay' Vikings, Panthers, Chargers
I don't really believe in playing parlays but I'm experiencing a rare 'action junkie' jag. I figure the best way to get over it is to indulge it.
5 units VIKINGS -5.5 over Dolphins
Welcome home for Vikings, where they went 9-0 last season. The Vikings get three days extra rest and prep, particularly welcome if they happen to have any players over forty who missed training camp - I'll have to check.
The Dolphins were reasonably efficient in winning at Buffalo, where neither their offense nor newly-Nolanised defense (they're "still getting comfortable with it" they say) faced the stiffest test. With a divisional win under their belts, I don't fancy the Dolphins here making a second straight road trip, for a non-conference game.
Mystic Limey forsees: Miami 13 - 27 Minnesota
3 units BROWNS -2 over Chiefs
I'd normally be opposing the Chiefs more heavily on the back of a Monday Night win in which they were outyardaged almost 2-1, converted just one of eleven third downs and "amassed" 62 passing yards. On the other hand (a) hey, it's the Browns (b) while Seneca Wallace is a decent backup QB, this is his first start in a new offense and (c) Romeo Crennel, KC DC, knows at least something about Cleveland, no matter how much has changed since Mangini replaced him. Still, Browns performance on the road in sticky Tampa was good enough to merit a small play here.
Strange but true: Cleveland were the only team besides New England not to give up a sack last week
Mystic Limey forsees: Cleveland 23 - 10 Kansas City
3 units EAGLES -6.5 over Lions
Keep it simple, stupid. A simplistic reading of this game says that Philadelphia lost last week mostly because Kevin Kolb made a poor start to the game and season. Vick was electrifying in relief, and while the Lions have had all week to prepare in the knowledge of the QB change, they've also had to switch signal-callers themselves. Not too much wrong with Shaun Hill but the Eagles will be desperate to get a conference win under their belts, no taking this lightly, so the superior squad should dominate the game.
Mystic Limey forsees: Philadelphia 35 - 13 Detroit
4 units BENGALS +2.5 over Ravens
Nice win last week against the New York Mouths, but Ravens still allowed over 5 yards per rush while managing less than 1.5 yards per carry themselves. They also benefitted from an extraordinary array of Jets penalties. The fact that this is a second road game, with a short week of preparation, makes me lean towards the home team. Encouraging that the Bengals seem to have the measure of these opponents, winning home and away last season, and that Baltimore are always capable of a foot-shooting exhibition of penalties themselves.
Strange but true: I own a Chad Johnson jersey
Mystic Limey forsees: Cincinnatti 24 - 20 Baltimore
16 units BRONCOS -3.5 over Seahawks
This line amazes me; I guess it's a case of "Seattle won last week, Denver lost". That's level one thinking. Meanwhile on level two, the 'Hawks got a home win against a 49ers team that appeared to be staging a tribute to the Three Stooges whilst Denver performed very creditably in a tough away game in Jacksonville. Seattle are a team in huge transition, with offensive line question marks, a quarterback liable to get injured every third week, and a false sense of security with a win under their belts, travelling to the thin air of Denver in blazing sunshine for a non-conference road game....
If you like their chances you're a braver man than me. If you like their uniforms, you're insane.
Strange but true: Denver passed for the league's third-highest yards per attempt last week
Mystic Limey forsees: Denver 27 - 10 Seattle
5 units PANTHERS -3 over Buccanneers
The Panthers will be gritting their teeth, protecting the QB and trying to play ball-control on Sunday - so who better to see getting of the bus than the Buccs, who were dead-last in the NFL in stopping the run last season. Tampa also don't have the same ability as the Giants to get after the passer, so Moore won't face quite such a testing day. A home win over Cleveland that was keyed by two critical turnovers doesn't make Tampa Bay strong contenders for a road win here.
Strange but true: Matt Moore completed passes for ten first downs last week
Mystic Limey forsees: Carolina 24 - 13 Tampa Bay
4 units RAIDERS -3.5 over Rams
Supporting the Raiders could almost qualify automatically as 'scary play of the week'. Still, Oakland's 5-11 last season doesn't look too bad when you study the schedule. For various reasons, I expect them to perform better this season in general. St Louis also seem bound to improve - it would be hard not to - but week two on the road, rookie QB with three INTS on debut.. I don't think Rams renaissance starts here.
Strange but true: Raiders achieved fourth-highest yards-per-carry last week in the process of getting thumped at Tennessee
Mystic Limey forsees: Oakland 20 - 9 St Louis
4 units ML 'parlay' Vikings, Panthers, Chargers
I don't really believe in playing parlays but I'm experiencing a rare 'action junkie' jag. I figure the best way to get over it is to indulge it.
