The best choice is not to make a 10pt teaser.. but for the sake of the thread...
Pitt +15
Skins +13
Packers -3
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bobbyk1133
SBR MVP
08-05-10
2245
#3
Gb -3
atl +3
ind +4.5
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Robust
SBR MVP
09-13-08
3254
#4
you two above.. NEVER CROSS THE 0 IN A TEASER!!!! you lose 6 pts crosing the -3 to +3..
and why GB -3?? why not BUF +23??? you think they'll lose by more??
and why not ari +16.5 or NYG +15.5?? come on.. two good teams (one better than the other.. you decide which ) with that kinda spread to cover.. looks easy (see "if it looks too good to be true...") LOL
good luck!
Robust
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Rod1010
SBR Hall of Famer
09-01-10
6208
#5
Originally posted by Robust
you two above.. NEVER CROSS THE 0 IN A TEASER!!!! you lose 6 pts crosing the -3 to +3..
and why GB -3?? why not BUF +23??? you think they'll lose by more??
and why not ari +16.5 or NYG +15.5?? come on.. two good teams (one better than the other.. you decide which ) with that kinda spread to cover.. looks easy (see "if it looks too good to be true...") LOL
good luck!
Robust
agree with this guy
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bobbyk1133
SBR MVP
08-05-10
2245
#6
Originally posted by Robust
you two above.. NEVER CROSS THE 0 IN A TEASER!!!! you lose 6 pts crosing the -3 to +3..
and why GB -3?? why not BUF +23??? you think they'll lose by more??
and why not ari +16.5 or NYG +15.5?? come on.. two good teams (one better than the other.. you decide which ) with that kinda spread to cover.. looks easy (see "if it looks too good to be true...") LOL
good luck!
Robust
Never say never. There's always a time to go against the grain. You play yours and I'll play mine.
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gryfyn1
SBR MVP
03-30-10
3285
#7
Pitt +15
Jax +17
Miami +15.5
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gryfyn1
SBR MVP
03-30-10
3285
#8
Originally posted by Robust
and why GB -3?? why not BUF +23??? you think they'll lose by more??
Well I think GB winning 35-6 is more likely than GB winning 17-16
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jetsjets1028
SBR MVP
02-10-10
1234
#9
j-e-t-s jets jets jets!!!
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k13
SBR Posting Legend
07-16-10
18104
#10
Dal -2
SD -0.5
Is all you need.
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Rod1010
SBR Hall of Famer
09-01-10
6208
#11
I think the chargers lose.
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Flight
Restricted User
01-28-09
1979
#12
There is no reason to tease 10 points when I am staring at these easy 6 point teaser games:
Chiefs +2
Bengals +2
Cowboys -7.5
Jets + 2.5
All these numbers are available on Bookmaker right now. You could make 6 combinations with these 4 games!
Sometimes the players are just blind.
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#13
As of now, I don't even see TWO teams I would use on a 3-team 10-pointer. Only one I like is KC +12.
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OmgUrMom
Restricted User
02-07-10
8481
#14
nvm
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#15
Originally posted by Flight
There is no reason to tease 10 points when I am staring at these easy 6 point teaser games:
Chiefs +2
Bengals +2
Cowboys -7.5
Jets + 2.5
All these numbers are available on Bookmaker right now. You could make 6 combinations with these 4 games!
Sometimes the players are just blind.
I get where you are Wongiing from (), but the problem is Chiefs are only one I like as of now. I only play Wongs if I either like the team on the straight ATS or have no opinion on the game,In this case, I actually like the opposite sides of your last three ATS.
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bobbyk1133
SBR MVP
08-05-10
2245
#16
Originally posted by gryfyn1
Well I think GB winning 35-6 is more likely than GB winning 17-16
What he said.
Originally posted by Flight
There is no reason to tease 10 points when I am staring at these easy 6 point teaser games: Chiefs +2 Bengals +2 Cowboys -7.5 Jets + 2.5 All these numbers are available on Bookmaker right now. You could make 6 combinations with these 4 games! Sometimes the players are just blind.
Agree with this too. 6 points should be enough if you pick the right games.
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Flight
Restricted User
01-28-09
1979
#17
Originally posted by Flight
Chiefs +2
Bengals +2
Cowboys -7.5
Jets + 2.5
I just checked and the SBR Book has each of these available.
Probably going to unload on Bengals +8/Jets +8.5 (love the home dogs in teasers)
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thebestthereis
SBR Posting Legend
03-01-09
11459
#18
never bet a 10 point teaser
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Rod1010
SBR Hall of Famer
09-01-10
6208
#19
Originally posted by Flight
I just checked and the SBR Book has each of these available.
Probably going to unload on Bengals +8/Jets +8.5 (love the home dogs in teasers)
You sure about the jets? the patriots could just score twice as many points easily. You really trust Mark sanchez???
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Flight
Restricted User
01-28-09
1979
#20
I am from South Korea. I have never heard of any of these teams. I am betting based on home dogs doing well when given 6 points that cross the 3 and 7. Historically, this has positive expected value.
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mister bee
SBR High Roller
04-23-09
199
#21
Originally posted by Robust
you two above.. NEVER CROSS THE 0 IN A TEASER!!!! you lose 6 pts crosing the -3 to +3..
Robust
Excuse my ignorance, but why don't you ever cross the 0? How do you lose 6 pts? I thought if you tease a favorite down, they go from a fave to a dog getting points.
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ngates815
SBR Posting Legend
12-01-09
13845
#22
Originally posted by mister bee
Excuse my ignorance, but why don't you ever cross the 0? How do you lose 6 pts? I thought if you tease a favorite down, they go from a fave to a dog getting points.
If you're looking to take 3 teams that are -7 and turn them into +3
You'll get alot more value just doing a Moneyline 3 teamer.
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vyomguy
SBR Hall of Famer
12-08-09
5794
#23
Originally posted by mister bee
Excuse my ignorance, but why don't you ever cross the 0? How do you lose 6 pts? I thought if you tease a favorite down, they go from a fave to a dog getting points.
Wrong...+2.5 is same as -2.5 in NFL....teasing small favourites makes no sense. Instead buy points down to 3 or -2.5. It has more value.
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Flight
Restricted User
01-28-09
1979
#24
If you have not read this book yet, you have no business betting teasers.
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vyomguy
SBR Hall of Famer
12-08-09
5794
#25
Originally posted by Flight
If you have not read this book yet, you have no business betting teasers.
You dont need to read this book...just common sense is enough. Unfortunately, most people dont have that .
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Dex17
SBR High Roller
09-06-10
230
#26
I like picking totals in teasers, to include NYG/Indy o48
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mister bee
SBR High Roller
04-23-09
199
#27
Originally posted by vyomguy
You dont need to read this book...just common sense is enough. Unfortunately, most people dont have that .
Thanks vyomguy! I'm new to football capping (baseball is my sport), so I'm asking some newbie questions. Common sense? Thanks for taking the time to answer my question. As far wong's book, i ordered it yesterday
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Flight
Restricted User
01-28-09
1979
#28
Teasing a total is a bad idea
Tease sides, and tease them when the total is low, ie Jets at 38 and Bengals at 40. Low totals imply more value for each half-point you pick up in a teaser (or buy).
You have to understand the value of each half point! Teasing 48 to 42 increases your chance of winning but not enough to overcome the required 72.4% win rate for each leg of the teaser.
Ask yourself this: If Over 48 has a 50% win rate, does Over 42 have a 72.4% win rate? The answer is no, it is 67%. To aid your struggle in comprehension, I will put the data here so you can understand.
For NFL years 1990-2008, here are push frequencies for each total of interest.
42 2%
43 2%
44 3%
45 4%
46 2%
47 4%
48 3%
When you tease, you pick up these numbers, adding each % to the market line's probability of winning (50%). You don't get 48 because that's what you start on. Add them up and you get 17%. 17+50 = 67%. This is a losing wager, considering you are probably paying -110 on a two teamer, which requires each leg to win 72.4% of the time.
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Rod1010
SBR Hall of Famer
09-01-10
6208
#29
My two team teaser . Vikings at +1/2 and packers at -3.
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jaythegreat
SBR Sharp
12-21-09
305
#30
take your book and shove it ,teasers are perfect for middles if you dont like it stick your head in a toilet and see if it fits
sbr
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Flight
Restricted User
01-28-09
1979
#31
You try to middle by teasing both sides of the same game?
That is about the only thing worse than teasing a total.
In order of terrible value
1) teasing both sides of same game
2) teasing a total
3) teasing through the 0
Any of those will increase your -4.5% EV plays to around -10%. Go play a slot machine.
Comment
Rod1010
SBR Hall of Famer
09-01-10
6208
#32
at the end of the day . just bet with your brain .
Comment
Duby
SBR MVP
01-26-09
3608
#33
I dont play teasers but if I would it would be this one:
GB -3 (Home opener should blowout)
Indy-Giants Over 38 (This should hit in 50's-60's)
Minny +4.5 (No way they start 0-2 and lose to Dolphins at home)
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Rod1010
SBR Hall of Famer
09-01-10
6208
#34
Originally posted by Duby
GB -3 (Home opener should blowout)
Indy-Giants Over 38 (This should hit in 50's-60's)
Minny +4.5 (No way they start 0-2 and lose to Dolphins at home)