Capy's Kick-Ass Season-Long NFL Thread!

[Capybara]

Bears -5.5, -110 (Bookmaker) 1x

I'll take my chances with the Bears. A) They're the team playing for something, B) They could not have performed worse in supposedly "their" kind of weather last week -- gotta believe they will be much better prepared this time, and C) Favre playing is a great story, but the guy did not practice for one second all week, has not been any good this year, and has a body that's failing him.

Vikes hang around a while and then go down. Unless of course the Bears lay an egg, which is VERY possible, but I'll roll with them.

[Capybara]

And...

Bears/Vikings Over 34, -110 (WSEX) 1x

Weather has not been hurting overs lately around the NFL. In fact, bad fields hurt pass rushers the most (Bears' playmakers were nullified in Chicago last weekend). So let's grab this over.

[Capybara]

Last seven thread plays: 7-0, +10.08...

I'm just gettin' started! Time to start tailing, SBR! I need some fans in here!

[Capybara]

Sorry gang, been around and around tonight's game and it's a No Play; I could easily see it going either way. On the one hand, you have a vastly superior Pitt team who's playing for a bye and a division and could win the thing 34-6. On the other hand, Pitt has issues on their O-line and no Polamalu, and with nothing to lose, a rolling Jonathan Stewart, a not-horrible defense, and a chance to make a good impression in prime time, I could also see the Panthers making enough plays to lose a 23-13 type of game or perhaps even a closer one.

My first gut instinct was Pitt and the over, but now i've wavered to Panthers and the under, so that means fukk it, no bets.

But of course I do need to make a pick for my every-game pool, so gonna go with all the points :

Carolina (at Pittsburgh-14.5)

[fishmonger]

Panther's are horrible. I'm ashamed to be a fan.

[Capybara]

Dallas -7, +102 (Matchbook) 2x

Cowboys have not been the most impressive team this year, but Cards may be the worst team in football. (Panthers have the slight edge there but it's close.) Prob no Joey Porter for Cards, can't see Kitna having many issues getting down the field. 'Boys should have all their RBs too. 'Boys defense can get beaten at times, but how many points can you really expect Joe Skelton to put up? Guessing we see something like 30-16.

Every-game pool pick:

Dallas-6.5 (at Arizona)

[Capybara]

Not at home today -- makes this a real bitch!

Fins/Lions over 41, -109 (WHill) 1x

Jets/Bears under 36, -109 (WHill) 1x

Jags -6.5, -109 (WHill) 2x

Ravens -3.5, +103 (Matchbook) 2x

[Capybara]

Chiefs -3.5, -108 (Matchbook) 2x

[Capybara]

Every-game pool 1:00 plays:

Baltimore-3.5 (at Cleveland)
Miami-3.5 (vs Detroit)
Buffalo (vs New England-7.5)
NY Jets (at Chicago-1.5)
St Louis-2.5 (vs San Francisco)
Kansas City-5.5 (vs Tennessee)
Jacksonville-7.5 (vs Washington)

[Capybara]

Raiders +3, -120 (SIA) 2x

Broncos +3, -125 (SIA) 2x

[Capybara]

Chargers -7.5, -107 (5Dimes) 2x

[Capybara]

Packers -3, -110 (RebateWager) 1x

Seahawks +6, -110 (IASbet) 1x

[Capybara]

Picks from every-game pool:

Denver (vs Houston-2.5)
Oakland (vs Indianapolis-3.5)
San Diego-7.5 (at Cincinnati)
Green Bay-2.5 (vs NY Giants)
Seattle (at Tampa Bay-6.5)
Philadelphia-14.5 (vs Minnesota)
Atlanta-2.5 (vs New Orleans)

[Capybara]

Sorry for the crap day today, Readers... Not the worst day ever, but down a few units and I always hate going sub-.500 with picks. Just didn't have the time to put into research/study this weekend and it showed -- tried to get it done earlier in week but just had too much going on.

Back home now (despite the blizzard!) and planning on a big finish to the season! (And then a big playoffs!)

Since our sigs aren't showing up, here are the updated figures:

NFL Every-Game-ATS 2010: 132-106, 55%
NFL Best-Bet Thread 2010: 60-54-1, +7.54

[Capybara]

Saints 1H +0.5, -110 (Diamond) 2x

I think the Saints come out on a mission in this one... I see them bottling up Turner and perhaps making some big plays, maybe even on D or ST.

[Capybara]

Also,

Saints/Falcons under 51, -110 (Bodog) 1x

I see some turnovers in this one, and some long drives.

[Capybara]

Two-for-two tonight, got back the three units I lost yesterday!

NFL Every-Game-ATS 2010: 132-107, 55%
NFL Best-Bet Thread 2010: 62-54-1, +10.54

[Capybara]

Eagles/Vikes over 43.5, -107 (5dimes) 2x

Seems kinda easy, no? This Vikes D has been a shell of the 09 one, and the Eagles need a win. On the opposite side, Eagles are down a safety and LB and the Vikes still have a lot of good skill players.

Leaning toward the Eagles side but number's a little large for a somewhat unpredictable team.

[Capybara]

Week 17, boys, time for a big finish!! (and then a great playoff run, of course...)

Records going in:

NFL Every-Game-ATS 2010: 132-108, 55%
NFL Best-Bet Thread 2010: 62-55-1, +8.40

Fukk it, I'm playing most of the board today! Here we go:

Raiders +4.5, -104 (Legends) 2x

[Capybara]

Colts -9.5, +110 (Matchbook) 2x

Seems like Titans are getting some late love here, but I don't care -- Colts are just rounding into form right now and will be out to leave no doubt in this game.

[Capybara]

Texans -4, -105 (BetPhoenix) 2x

Jags will be playing for nothing at this point, plus no Garrard or MJD anyway. Awful year for Texans but they'll finish with a nice win.

[Capybara]

Packers -10, -110 (Bodog) 2x

Bears will be down 10 to 14 at half-time, see the Falcons rolling, and fold up their tents.

[Capybara]

Buccaneers +7.5, -115 (Bodog) 2x

Bucs fight hard to the end... Saints pretty much locked in, and not as much to prove.

Falcons -14, -108 (IAS) 2x

If the Panters show up, good for them, but I haven't seen it yet, and the Falcons can't let this game stay close as they have way too much to lose.

[Capybara]

Plays from every-game pool:

Buffalo (at NY Jets-1.5)
Atlanta-14.5 (vs Carolina)
Cincinnati (at Baltimore-9.5)
New England-3.5 (vs Miami)
Detroit-3.5 (vs Minnesota)
Oakland (at Kansas City-3.5)
Pittsburgh-5.5 (at Cleveland)
Tampa Bay (at New Orleans-7.5)

[Capybara]

Niners -6, -105 (5Dimes) 2x

[Capybara]

Broncos +5.5, -110 (BetJam) 1x

And the rest of my every-game pool picks... Great start w/ the 1:00 games!

San Francisco-6.5 (vs Arizona)
Green Bay-10.5 (vs Chicago)
Dallas (at Philadelphia-6.5)
Houston-3.5 (vs Jacksonville)
NY Giants-4.5 (at Washington)
Denver (vs San Diego-3.5)
Indianapolis-9.5 (vs Tennessee)
St Louis-3.5 (at Seattle)

[Capybara]

Killer fukkin' start to the day!

7-1 ATS overall, and 3-0, +6 units in plays!!

Updated records:

NFL Every-Game-ATS 2010: 139-109, 56%
NFL Best-Bet Thread 2010: 65-55-1, +14.40

[Capybara]

4:15 games didn't kick ass like the 1:00's, but still went 3-2 and up a unit!

Updated records:

NFL Every-Game-ATS 2010: 142-113, 56%
NFL Best-Bet Thread 2010: 68-57-1, +15.20

Debating an evening play...

[Capybara]

Rams -3, -107 (Sportbet) 1x

Rams are the superior team on paper by a smidge, but more importantly they're just a smarter, more disciplined team. Can that overcome the homefield advantage? I'd say most likely.

Rams/Seahawks Under 43.5 (Looselines) 1x

I give defense a slight edge in this one, I can see certain players stepping up to stifle at least one of these offenses.

[Capybara]

Fukk it, make it 2 units on St. Louis. The Seahawks blow, why should that change?

[Capybara]

Rams receivers couldn't make a damn catch, but still a very good day: 7-3, +6 units, to finish the regular season at:

NFL Every-Game-ATS 2010: 142-114, 56%
NFL Best-Bet Thread 2010: 69-58-1, +14.06

Looking forward to getting up over 20 in the playoffs!

[Capybara]

Saints -9.5, -105 (BetPhoenix) 2x

Was waiting for that line to drop and it did. Not super-confident, so only the two units, but let's get real here... Sure, the Seahawks can play the no-respect card, how they only have each other, and there's the 12th man and all that, but we're talking about a team who gave up a million points and whose losses were all blowouts.

They might stick in this thing for a while, but the cream usually rises to the top. Saints will make the necessary adjustments, and when it's all said and done, Saints take it like 34-16 or something.

Saints/Seahawks over 45.5, -102 (Matchbook) 1x

Only a slight lean here, but I do see a lot of points being scored one way or another. And the TT's are juiced pretty highly.

[Capybara]

Jets +3, -115 (SIA) 1x

Colts/Jets over 43.5, -110 (BetUS) 1x

[Capybara]

2-2, down a unit on the day. I'm okay going down with the Saints, but the Jets/Colts over was a dumb play; really didn't think that one through.

Updated:

NFL Every-Game-ATS 2010: 143-115, 56%
NFL Best-Bet Thread 2010: 71-59-1, +12.86

[Capybara]

Ravens/Chiefs Over 40.5, -110 (WSEX) 2x

I really feel like they'll be enough big plays in this game -- maybe even one or two on D or ST -- to send it over. Ravens D is not quite what it once was, and Chiefs D has a lot to contend with.

Ravens -3, -108 (BetPhoenix) 1x

Better overall team and much more experience. I do think this will be a good fight, so not super confident. I believe in Matt Cassel.