TodaysLocks NFL Picks - **Early Games**

[TodaysLocks]

For those who don't know me, I'm new to forums, but far from new to the game. Been around handicapping since 04. My system is very detailed and takes a lot of stats and history into account that others do not contemplate.

My overall picks since 04 are around 65% and my system, which is a labby/chase original system has hit about 95% since 04.

**As always, picks are for informational purposes. Use your discretion.**

Also, feel free to check out my posts in the CFB handicapping forum. I'm 16-3 overall on the year and my system is undefeated. Had some good ones this week with Marshall, Troy, Gardner-Webb, Bama, and Florida.

Did lose a few though for first time this season.

Okay, only two games fit my system for the early slate.

Detroit @ Chicago -6.5

This is a homerun, and my strongest play of the day. My lock is Chicago to cover.

Oakland @ Tenn -6.5

This is not as strong as the above game, nonetheless it is very strong compared to any other NFL game on the schedule besides the Chicago game. My system has Tenn to cover this one.

My system had me teetering on ATL-Pitt, but I decided to stay away. The system gave me too many inconsistencies. When I pick games, I take so much information, lines, stats, and historical data into account, that if my system still doesn't spit out a confident pick after all that, I stay away. And ATL-Pitt was too inconsistent.

My system basically laughed at me in the Chicago pick by telling me it is a no-brainer.

With the Tennessee pick, every output of my system had Tenn covering except for one instance. That's why it is not as much a lock to me as Chicago.

However, like I said, it beat out every other game.

For the record, I'm 1-0 on NFL for the season with New Orleans -4.5.

[Mr Nuts]

Does your system work with totals. I really like cards/rams under 39.5

[TodaysLocks]

Does your system work with totals. I really like cards/rams under 39.5

No, unfortunately it does not. I used to include totals, but the system was way too inconsistent. I was only hitting totals like 46% of the time. Gotta hit over 52-53% for it to be worth it.

My system has been fully tweaked for spreads only.

[Seth]

Hey Locks, You've got me interested, I was wondering if you could explain your labby/chase system so I know what to place on each wager. Also, do you use the same system for NCAAF? 16-3 so far sounds fantastic! Is that normal or is your regular win percentage lower than that? I'd like to follow, looking forward to see how you do! BOL!

[ebbearsfb1]

so if the bears don't cover do we chase with titans?

or these both straight?

[Joe Dogs]

Good luck this NFL season........I will keep an eye on your thread.

[TodaysLocks]

Hey Locks, You've got me interested, I was wondering if you could explain your labby/chase system so I know what to place on each wager. Also, do you use the same system for NCAAF? 16-3 so far sounds fantastic! Is that normal or is your regular win percentage lower than that? I'd like to follow, looking forward to see how you do! BOL!

Hey, glad I've got a fan or two!

I will preface this by saying, use a system that works for YOUR bankroll.

My labby/chase isn't anything special. 16-3 is not a pace that will stay, but I do hit about 65% of my picks using my system. Look above at some of the underdogs I had this weekend. Or go in the CFB forum and check my thread.

Lets make it simple: You wager 110 to win 100 on Chicago. If you win, bet 110 on your next bet too. If you hit 4-5 of these in a row, feel free to move up to maybe 150 per bet. Gradually increase as your bankroll does.

Now, if you bet 110 and lose. You are down 110. Next game I bet 220 to win 200. If you hit (and there's a good chance you will with a 65% rate like my system) you start back at your original 110. If you lose, you have a decision to make.

Sometimes if I'm confident on the 3rd game I'd bet say 440 to win 400 , or whatever the odds may be. It varies. I use more local resources so I'm not familiar with all the sportsbooks. If I win, I've got my winnings and I'm back to step 1.

OR, to lessen your risk, bet 220 again. If you hit, you bet 220 again. Now, after my 3rd game, or C game I guess you call it, I go back around and decrease my initial bet, (ie. 60 instead of 110) or just go back to 110. Rarely, RARELY do I chase a C game with a 4th game.

A lot of systems do that and it can put you in a hole. I will say this though. If you bet wisely with a system and percentages, the chances you lose a A, B, and C game are very slim.

Over time you will win more than lose, and when you lose you dont compound it. You go back to step 1 and let the percentages eventually work out in your favor.

But you don't have to use this system. If you want to bet $25 bucks every game, then do it. My picks are not in any way related to the labby/chase system. They are made outside of the system and then I bring them into the system when need be.

For example, yesterday I had like 8 games I was comfortable playing. I went like 5-3 I think. But, say your goal is to win 300 bucks on a saturday. I'd bet 3 early games. If I win all 3 I can quit and relax, or get greedy. If I lose 2, then I bet on two afternoon games. I bet to win 200 on each to make up for the losses and make 100 profit. If I hit, I've got my 300. If I lose again we can either bet to win 400 on two games in the evening (800 total) or we can be less risky and just bet for 200 on each game again. If you don't hit, cut your losses and restart. If you do hit, you are done for the night.

RARELY, and I will say rarely WITH MY SYSTEM FOR MAKING PICKS, do I end the day without making the profit I want. Occasionally it'll carry over if there are no games that fit my system to bet on. I'll never chase just to chase. The game must fit.

But the chase/labby will fail you if you just choose games at random. If you go with your gut and not percentages, you can easily pick 3 games wrong and end up with big losses. But if you have a system that gets you over 60% correct picks, the chances it will fail you three times in a row are very slim.

Imagine you are just randomly picking games. Its like flipping a coin. You will have a 50-50 shot. But with football with no research, you have less than a 50-50 shot. Now imagine I found a way to make the coin heavier in one area so that over the course of a year it landed on heads 65% of the time if flipped 1000 times. Wouldn't you feel more comfortable putting your money on heads than tails?

That's all I'm saying. If you have a system that over time tells you X amount of picks will win 60+% of the time, you've gotta go with those picks. Even if you lose some, you will eventually come out on top. Even if my gut tells me otherwise, THE NUMBERS DONT LIE!

I didn't feel comfortable betting on Marshall, Troy, Gardner Webb yesterday, but it paid off because the system told me those were the plays I needed to make.

**This is for informational purposes only. Use your own discretion!**

[TodaysLocks]

so if the bears don't cover do we chase with titans?

or these both straight?

Games are at same time I believe. Both straight. If they lose, my chasers will probably be the Monday games. None of the spreads right now for the late games fit my system.

[ebbearsfb1]

yes just saw that.. i think i'l be playing both straight then today.

good luck.. hope to follow... i can live with 65% on a straight bet


would you recommend putting more on bears as its a stronger play?

[TodaysLocks]

yes just saw that.. i think i'l be playing both straight then today.

good luck.. hope to follow... i can live with 65% on a straight bet


would you recommend putting more on bears as its a stronger play?

Hey man I'm new here so wanna be clear. Please don't bet money just because I say so. I don't ever want to feel guilty if you lose because of me. One day if I have my own business and charge a small fee, then I wouldn't feel bad because I'd have some incentive where you get your money back if you lose.

But according to my system, the Bears are the strongest play on the whole NFL schedule today. Tennessee a close 2nd. If you want to put a bit more, feel free. That's what I did.

Good luck.

[TBone101]

just so you know... there are idiots here that will bash your picks/system the second you lose a couple..

my advice is IGNORE them.

90% of the people here are cool... but unfortunately the idiots get all the attention

you can add people to your own personal ignore list, and never have to worry about reading Hate/Bash posts from them...my ignore list is getting rather long

hope this helps and Good Luck dude.

[Dickieshaps]

You have me listening. I will follow ya on the Bears. Forte is on my fantasy team so I was gonna be watching the game anyways.

[Seth]

Hey man thanks for all the info. Now I'm just deciding whether to play a chase or bet your picks straight. I have no problem betting straight when it's @ a 65% win rate, hell, even 60% is great for me, not to mention I've had nothing but bad experiences using chase systems. Look forward to following you this season!

[Smogs]

BOL this season, i hope it's successful

[Gundog]

Welcome to SBR. And good Luck,

[itchypickle]

Welcome to the board...you'll learn fast the "L" word is a bad word around here. I'm on the Titans! Good luck

[ebbearsfb1]

im not a huge fan of chasing either, but hitting 60 to 65% on minus 110 lines is sweet

[ebbearsfb1]

hopefully the bears line is ready to go today

[garnetandblack]

good luck

[TodaysLocks]

Since Chicago can't catch a two point conversion, I'll be posting my chaser if there is one that makes sense tonight. If not, tomorrow.

At least Tennessee knows how to play ball.