Doesn't the public usually win early in the Nfl Season?

[dynamite140]

I recalled the last few years, public crushed the NFL in the early weeks in the season and public bets did pretty well. But once it gets to the middle of the season, fading the public seem like a good idea.

Tomorrow the Packers play the Eagles and the Packers look like such as an easy bet. However, i am prettyy skeptical because public plays usually win early in the NFL season.

[surffreak]

yes... vegas usually lets the public win usually till about week 3 or 4.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

yes... vegas usually lets the public win usually till about week 3 or 4.

Why would Vegas ever let anyone win? Vegas sets up lines always for themselves to win.

[surffreak]

Why would Vegas ever let anyone win? Vegas sets up lines always for themselves to win.

take this into account. vegas is smart and a business. If they take all your money early on you are more prone to stop betting. But when you start losing your money a quarter way through the season then you keep betting trying to win that money back.

Have you never noticed how the public usually wins all the time in the first 3 weeks? Then midway throught he season all of the games that all heavily backed by the public start to lose?

watch this season.

[bobbyk1133]

Why would Vegas ever let anyone win? Vegas sets up lines always for themselves to win.

I think he was being sarcastic. But if he wasn't....

Truth is everyone enters the season blind. There's no stats that can reliably give anyone an edge and most of the very early lines are not the same ones that the vegas consulting firms come up with a week or two before the season. By about week 4-5 the sharps and vegas pretty much fall in line with each other and the public will begin to have some real problems.

[surffreak]

I think he was being sarcastic. But if he wasn't....
.

now i see the sarcasm

[Serbone]

It happened last yr, was a fluke, there was some early imbalance, Vegas whined as some took losses a few times early. But they of course recovered.
But usually first NFL Week public takes favorites, based on last yrs results, but most teams have changed, some dramatically.
Obvious is the player changes.
New QB's several places, Cards lost Warner. SF picked up two OL #1 draft choices that are starting. Ravens get WR Boldin. And so on...
Those are clear to evaluate though not impecabble.
But the hard thing to evaluate is a new head coach, def. coordinator, or offensive coordinator changes.
You do not know WTF really goes on internally... who is really good... is it the players or the coaching?
Example Spagnolo left Giants, was their defensive coordinator in '08. Giants had great "D". In '09, Spags is gone, mostly the same players, Giants "D" was terrible. But it is not always that easy, sometimes the new guy comes in and is fine.
Or maybe he is fine for one yr based upon previous regime, then things fall apart yrs 2 & 3.

[Cappy]

This seems ridiculous, I don't know anything about it. But this can't possibly be true, you're not talking about moving the line a little bit, you're talking about changing the outcome of games which seems very unlikely

[hitman2010]

Go with FAVOR all the way on week 1-3, making money then worried later bro. BOL.