Decided to go with a Hedge and Middle (SAINTS!!!!)

[LVBOUND]

First let me thank all you guys who helped me in my bet hedge decision.

Everyone who said if I wanted to hedge I was betting to big, you are mistaken, I just like to have insurance when I am having a great week like I am.

So

as of now I got 344 to win 892 if the Saints win by 5

So I then took the Vikings and bought them to +7.5 for 260 to make 200


I did to make sure I would be up over a dime for the week no matter what.

If I win the game buy 5 I will be up like 1650,
If the Vikings win Ill be up around 1000
if I can somehow middle the game and the Saints win by 5 6 or 7 I will be at almost 2k for the week.


I ran the numbers through sportsdatabase.com and found that

since 2005 there have been 84 home teams that were between a 4 and 5 point favorite
During those 84 games 49 (58.3%) have ended up a 3 points or less (So that would be a Vikings Win)
25 (29.765) over 7 points Saints win.

AND 10 times (11.90%) have been middled!!!!!


So lets hope for a middle.

I do not think it is playing scared to try and middle the game. I can tell you this if I could not middle the game properly I would not have played just to hedge my bet after getting advice from SBR.

My prediction for tonight is this however.

SAINTS WIN BIG

TAKE THE SAINTS LAY THE POINTS.

[RudyRuetigger]

Don't quit your day job to gamble until you understand this is -EV

[LVBOUND]

Rudy shut the Fuk up you are like a bag of bad energy that swirls around the room. Take your Ghost ass somewhere else and get the fuk off my threads!

[RudyRuetigger]

You ask for advice and can't handle it when someone gives you good advice apparently.

GL pal, i can tell you are going to be a real winner

[LVBOUND]

Rudy, yes I ask for advice, but I don't think you have brought one piece of positive information to one fukking thread yet.

Ok so tell me why it is stupid for me to guarantee myself at least 200 dollars I do not have now?

Do I think the Saints are going to win and win big yeah, but hell anything happens?

I got little enough invested in the parlay it makes it a no brainier.

Why do you think Phil Hellmuth takes insurance when he is a 90/10 favorite in poker? Because its a guarantee profit.

This also gives me a 11.9% chance of hitting both bets.

explain to me how this is -ev

[fsugolf]

Why do you think Phil Hellmuth takes insurance when he is a 90/10 favorite in poker? Because its a guarantee profit.

because he likes to cut his EV in order to guarantee a profit

[RudyRuetigger]

Rudy, yes I ask for advice, but I don't think you have brought one piece of positive information to one fukking thread yet.

I realize you are a cop and therefore are not the brightest on the block, but if you check any of your fukkin threads ive offered solid advice or backed up others who have.

Also:

Rudy shut the Fuk up you are like a bag of bad energy that swirls around the room. Take your Ghost ass somewhere else and get the fuk off my threads!

That gem pretty much guarantees i wont help your stupid ass, maybe someone else will come in to clarify it yet again for your slow ass mind.

[LVBOUND]

because he likes to cut his EV in order to guarantee a profit

This doesn't sound bad to me. Maybe I
Am missing something here.

If i gave you a free 200 dollars with a 11pct chance of winning 1200 or you pay me 344 with a 50/50 chance to win 892.

Which would you take

[statnerds]

hedging is never a good idea unless your original position is too large or unless you believe the other side is +EV as well.

I missed the original thread, so may I ask if this is an open-ended parlay with the Saints as the final leg? parlays are bad plays to begin with as the vig you are paying is larger than just on a normal -110 wager. forgive me if any of this was covered in your original thread.

I can only ask if this is a parlay, and they Saints win by 8 or more, what happens?

looks like you would win 632 on this parlay, knocking it down to 1:1.83 for a wager, that without me knowing the other side, had a 25% chance of winning.

This book would explain this area much better than my rambling, unless you have read it.

GL with your play sir.

Also, imagine if you regularly play parlays. what is your expected win % on them? say you do an amazing job and hit like 30% of them. so you went 30-70 on parlays. now take the payout on one of the 30 wins and change it from 2.6 to 1.8 and see how it effects your long term performance.

[RudyRuetigger]

hedging is never a good idea unless your original position is too large or unless you believe the other side is +EV as well.

I missed the original thread, so may I ask if this is an open-ended parlay with the Saints as the final leg? parlays are bad plays to begin with as the vig you are paying is larger than just on a normal -110 wager. forgive me if any of this was covered in your original thread.

I can only ask if this is a parlay, and they Saints win by 8 or more, what happens?

looks like you would win 632 on this parlay, knocking it down to 1:1.83 for a wager, that without me knowing the other side, had a 25% chance of winning.

This book would explain this area much better than my rambling, unless you have read it.

GL with your play sir.

Also, imagine if you regularly play parlays. what is your expected win % on them? say you do an amazing job and hit like 30% of them. so you went 30-70 on parlays. now take the payout on one of the 30 wins and change it from 2.6 to 1.8 and see how it effects your long term performance.

good post. its too bad he won more than the original parlay this time..it means its going to be a few more times of this before he tries to learn something.

[Extra Innings]

[LVBOUND]

Rudy

Yes I got very fortunate today and will not be doing this on a regular basis.

Sorry we got off to a bad start Rudy I think you took me the wrong way!

[donkdown]

[LVBOUND]

Thanks BOYS!!!!

[MadTiger]

Though some didn't root,
it's all moot:
He hit both bets.
2K he gets.

[csm506]

I took LV's advise on making a profit tonight, and hedged and I made 5 bones. I like cops

[crazyfied]

always go for the sure money. congrats on the hit

[RudyRuetigger]

Rudy

Yes I got very fortunate today and will not be doing this on a regular basis.

Sorry we got off to a bad start Rudy I think you took me the wrong way!

i have a lot of smart ass answers. in all of your threads i didnt think i was trying to be one, but sorry if i was. congrats on the win though

[Brock Landers]

LV, i'd love to see you use your knight stick on Rudy's fukking skull, guy is a zero contributor/shit stirrer only

[Rod1010]

5Dimes is taking alot of time to pay me! is this normal!?

[RudyRuetigger]

LV, i'd love to see you use your knight stick on Rudy's fukking skull, guy is a zero contributor/shit stirrer only

like i said dont fukk with me brock

[PRC]

rudy, you're alright in my book

[csm506]

Why pick on Brock you dirty ND fucker, go die a little until Saturday's game and you will lose. GO MICH

[csm506]

Why pick on a guy you makes money, that is what we are all trying to do, maybe we can learn something from Brock and Lvbound

[51684]

well done

[RudyRuetigger]

rudy, you're alright in my book

Thanks

I try to help when I can
I don't like dumbasses like Brock causing people to lose their money
and I think people should be an SBR Pro

Apparently people fukkin go crazy because of those things... like brock thinkin my head should get beaten in and the guy below you sayin i should die

[Brock Landers]

Rudy
rudy
rudy

[OmgUrMom]

funny how good advice on this site is shat on

[wtt0315]

good job hedging work out

[KingKing]

congrats

[csm506]

Good night everyone and good luck

[ZetaPsi808]

nice job here LV, i like your strategy pal. it was well thought out

[Capybara]

Excellent job with this, LV!

[temple2010]

good work LV!! Rudy, you're a dick!!

[jjgold]

LV your a professional gambler, nice call.

Vegas here you come