BGBoothA's Week 1 Picks

BGboothA · 09-07-10, 09:25 PM

Adding MIN @ NO = NO -4.5! (1 unit)

CaptainPrice · 09-07-10, 10:04 PM

not sure about those first one but the second ones I like

RANDAZZO · 09-07-10, 11:02 PM

GL this week.

nbarlotta3 · 09-07-10, 11:04 PM

I disagree with the NE and Cinci Under. NE is gunna score 40 by themself.

RANDAZZO · 09-07-10, 11:05 PM

I agree. N.E Over.

BGboothA · 09-07-10, 11:42 PM

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints WRITE-UP

First and foremost, when I first looked at this game, I my initial thought was that Minnesota should have a chance to win this game, let alone cover more than a field goal spread. However, after doing some research that I am about to share with you, I have not only moved away from the Minnesota money line, but I am looking at NO as a strong play at -4.5 to -5.5. As I write this on Tuesday night the line is sitting anywhere from 4.5 to 5 at most books. I would guess its closer to a touchdown before kickoff on Thursday.

First let us start with Minnesota. What’s different? Two main things, Chester Taylor and Sidney Rice; most people write off the loss of Chester Taylor as a minor note in the Vikings offense, but I would tend to disagree. Adrian Peterson has never carried a full load, he has carried 85% or so of the offense, but the change to Taylor has been a key part of Minnesota’s offense. Toby Gerhart is no slouch, but his first NFL game isn’t going to be him at full potential. The absence of Sidney Rice is huge. Rice helped stretch the field and open things up for Harvin and the rest of the gang, without the ability to pull the safeties and keep them honest deep, the field will shrink for Favre and the rest of the Vikings.

Now add to all of this the fact that Favre is only a couple weeks into training camp and last season he took a little while to get into the swing of things. Now I am not crazy enough to tell you that Brett needs a good amount of time to get acclimated to playing football, but the first two weeks of 2009. In week 1, Brett threw for 110 yards and 1 touchdown against Cleveland. In week 2, Brett improved to 155 yards. I don’t have the faith in Favre and a Rice-less/Taylor-less Vikings offense to keep up with the scoring the New Orleans has the ability to put down.
New Orleans haven’t changed much, their SuperBowl team is nearly fully intact at full health and at home in the SuperDome. Brees, Thomas, Bush, Colston, Henderson are all coming back in front of a home town crowd and will celebrate their SuperBowl win by crushing Minnesota. The line of -4.5 is nothing, this could easily be a two touchdown game before halftime and New Orleans won’t look back.

The total is another interesting bet, just crunching some numbers the Saints were responsible for an average of 53.2 points per game last season (averaging 31.9 points scored and 21.3 points against), the Vikings were responsible for an average of 48.9 point per game last season (averaging 29.4 points scored and 19.5 points against). Creating an average total of 51.5. I know this is elementary and doesn’t take many things into account, but it’s a good starting point for this example. The line while I am writing this is Over/Under 48; only two points under the average the two teams were putting up last year. Add to the fact its going to be week 1, the absence of Rice and Taylor for Minnesota; I see this game staying under. That being said, with Harvin and Bush returning kicks, I don’t see anyway to cap this total with confidence. I will say I am leaning toward the under, but definitely keeping my money away from the total.

BGboothA · 09-08-10, 08:07 AM

Vikes' options at CB
3:33
PM ETMinnesota Vikings TopEmail UPDATE: While there's still a chance that Cedric Griffin will be able to play Thursday night -- Brad Childress has been "toying" with the idea, per Tom Pelissero of 1500 ESPN -- Chris Cook remains sidelined, according to Judd Zulgad of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
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The Minnesota Vikings will open the season a bit shorthanded in the defensive backfield, as only three CBs are healthy: Antoine Winfield, Lito Sheppard and Asher Allen. Pelissero writes that the team has an extensive list of free agents from which to choose, but that they haven't shown interest in any of them.
Instead, it appears as though they'll hope for quick returns by Cook and Griffin, the latter of whom may even be able to suit up this week, a remarkable turn of events given that he's coming off surgery to reconstruct his knee after a torn ACL in the NFC Championship game in January.

BGboothA · 09-09-10, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Adding MIN @ NO = NO -4.5! (1 unit)

Glad I jumped on this early...Garret Hartley cost me a few other times in Beat the prick and other contests though. But I got paid here by half a point.