Thoughts on some season win totals

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  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #1
    Thoughts on some season win totals
    These are all current lines at The Greek, and I see a few I really like a lot.

    #1. Washington Redskins Under 7 1/2

    #2. Arizona Cardinals under 7 1/2 + 135

    This is a great play especially considering that it is + 135 on the under. The only reason the Cardinals have such a high win total is that they are playing in a crappy division. I would say the linesmakers pretty much expect the Cardinals will be 4-0 against the Rams and Seahawks so in their other 12 games, they have a win total of 3 1/2.

    The way I see it though, both the Rams and Seahawks will be greatly improved. The Seahawks have brought in Pete Carroll and some other new coaches. They also expect Hasselbeck to have a much better year than he has had in previous seasons. The Rams also got rid of QB Marc Bulger and will likely be starting Sam Bradford at some point this season.

    Neither the Rams nor Seahawks may be great this year, but I doubt they will be cupcakes like they have been in the past. I see Arizona going no better then 3-3 in thei8r division and if that turns out to be accurate, they wont win 8 games this year.

    The Cardinals will have a hard time putting up points this season, as they lost Warner, and Boldin. I also dont have a lot of confidence in their new Qb Leinhart. This team plays a pretty tough out of division schedule. They face Minnesota, New Orleans, Denver, San Diego, Atlanta, Carolina, and Dallas.

    #3. Green Bay OVER 9 1/2 -170

    Yes the -170 is a lot of chalk to lay, but it is well justified. The Packers number was 9 1/2 -170 even before Farve announced his retirement and it hasnt changed. Even with his retirement, the Vikings may still be able to get 1 win against the Packers but I still believe the Packers are the class of this division.

    I think Green Bay goes no worse than 4-2 within their division and even that would be a disappointment. This is a fairly tough schedule, but I really believe that the Packers could come out of the gate 7-0. They go to Philly which I think they win, then they have Buffalo at home, Then they go to Chicago, then they have Detroit at home, then they go to Washington. Then its Miami and Minnesota both at home. If the Packers come out 7-0 or 6-1 then this bet is a done deal.

    Green Bay is bringing back QB Aaron Rodgers who had a great year last year. He went 12 games without a pick, he sure isnt Brett Farve. He also has a lot of potential targets, 8 different Packers had 20 receiptions or more last year.

    They also bring back pretty much the entire defense from a squad that was #2 against the rush last year, and held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. The Packers have added Aaron Kampman from the Jaguars while keeping Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk on the inside. They also return Clay Mattews who recorded 10 sacks last year. The Packer defensive front is one of the biggest in the game with Ryan Pickett, Johnny Jolly, and Cullen Jenkins averaging almost 340 pounds.

    IMO the Packers will win 10 games easily.
  • vegasfred
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-17-09
    • 126

    #2
    I wouldn't bet any of these, but if I did I think I would take the Wash Under. I would go the other way with the other two.

    There's a whole Wash Under 7.5 thread out there so I'm not going to go into them.

    I think Ari might have a shot at hitting 9 or even 10 wins if Leinart pans out. I kinda feel like Sea and Ari will end up fighting it out with SF closely behind. I'm actually like Leinart better than Alex Smith. The schedule is easy enough that they could fall into 8 wins by accident. Theres too much talent on the team to drop off that much.

    I really felt GB defense was drastically overrated last year. When they played a decent team, they folded more times then not. Outside of the Cowboy game and the last game of the season against Ari (which Ari took off, if the playoff game the next week was any indication), they really didn't stop any of the better offenses in the league. The schedule was so easy it made them look better than they actually were. Again, look at the playoff game as an example. Elite defenses don't give up 51 points to ANYBODY. Pitt, Minn, Cinn, even Tampa took them apart. The 5 of last 7 under 14 points you talked about were Ari(final game of season), Det, Chi, Sea and Bal. That's not overly impressive.

    If GB were to start off 6-1 (A big If), I still don't know that they would hit 10 wins. They could conceivably lose @NYJ, @ATL, @Minn, @NE, and a home game against the NYG. That would put them at 9 wins even with the great start. And that is assuming a sweep of Chi and Det. They beat the Bears twice last year by 6 and 7 points. Don't underestimate division games in the NFC North. Their offense is one of the tops in the league, but their disastrous schedule might hover them around 9 wins ...
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    • vegasfred
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-17-09
      • 126

      #3
      Good calls so far Nobs ...
      Comment
      • DeluxeLiner
        SBR MVP
        • 01-29-08
        • 4132

        #4
        I hate to say it but great predictions nobs... looking like you will get all 3. Arizona wins already. Packers even being ravaged with injuires and Skins you have great chance of hitting too (though I am on them this weekend).
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