NFL Future Play CASH THIS ONE

**jrcaces** · 12-07-07, 02:21 PM

I like it, looks like easy money. GL

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 02:45 PM

Not a fan of Cowboys bet. You really think they're >64% to go to the SB? That's >80% per game.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 05:13 PM

Who is going to beat them? The answer is the only team that can is themselves. They have been pretty dominant all year long, Always shows up for the biggest games against the strongest teams

**dwaechte** · 12-07-07, 05:25 PM

I think Dallas at -180 has fairly good value. Theyve got Homefield all but locked up, and they've already shown they can beat the Packers. Them winning two home games come playoff time doesn't seem like much of a stretch.

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Who is going to beat them? The answer is the only team that can is themselves. They have been pretty dominant all year long, Always shows up for the biggest games against the strongest teams

Anybody in the playoffs? 80% is equivalent to about a 10 point spread. You really think Dallas will be a 10 point favorite over Seattle and GB (assuming Seattle and GB win their first games.) I don't.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 06:43 PM

Well they were -8 against GB earlier this season and smoked them, and seattle is worse than GB. . . I'm really curious fo who you think is going to the NFC Championship then?

**dwaechte** · 12-07-07, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by outdrawed

Anybody in the playoffs? 80% is equivalent to about a 10 point spread. You really think Dallas will be a 10 point favorite over Seattle and GB (assuming Seattle and GB win their first games.) I don't.

I think 10 points would be a pretty reasonable spread for those games. Dallas just beat GB by 10 and Seattle is so inconsistent I cant see them putting up a better fight than GB.

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Well they were -8 against GB earlier this season and smoked them, and seattle is worse than GB. . . I'm really curious fo who you think is going to the NFC Championship then?

You're being awfully results oriented for one game. Interesting note, GB is currently an 11 point favorite home favorite against Oakland. If you think the disparity between GB and Oakland is the same as the disparity between Dallas and GB, then yikes.

Who do I think will win the NFC Championship? I think Dallas has the best chance of all the teams, but they certainly aren't going to win it 64% of the time.

**area51steve** · 12-07-07, 06:55 PM

That dallas bet sounds reasonable but the vikings are +3000 for a reason. The vikings will choke against good teams like they always do. Look how the packers beat them down this year.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 06:57 PM

Both teams were 10-1 going into the game, and the line was -8, you think after they dismantled them the line is going to drop? . . Can't compare point spreads with completly different matchup's. Every situation is different, like if Dal is -11 this week also against the lions, when GB played them i think the line was 3.5, but that doesn't matter. Bottom line you got all these %'s and point spreads into this topic when bottom line your agreeing they should win this NFC going away. Also the cowboys play allows me to make a small profit if they hold up, while at the same time taking a gamble for free in a sense with the vikes to make a big profit.

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 07:05 PM

Dal -11 is a joke of a line this week. Last week's line of -7 was pretty bad too, but I think that was heavily influenced by GB's defensive injuries that week.

And if you're betting a line of -180 just because you think it'll happen >50% of the time which is what it sounds like, then haha.

Dallas is the favorite, for sure. That doesn't justify taking them at -180 at all.

**robmpink** · 12-07-07, 07:15 PM

I would put a bet on Tampa to win the NFC.

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 07:19 PM

Tampa's not terrible at 8/1.

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 07:21 PM

Also, if for whatever reason you don't believe me on Dallas, then I reallllly hope you put money down on Dallas winning the Super Bowl at 5/1.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 07:22 PM

Tampa has no chance. . .

outdrawed,

Who is your favorite NFL team?

I don't think dallas will win 50% of the time, i think its almost a sure thing, what is going to stop them. . .Noone in the NFC has beat them yet, and probaly won't either. . .

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by outdrawed

Also, if for whatever reason you don't believe me on Dallas, then I reallllly hope you put money down on Dallas winning the Super Bowl at 5/1.

I don't think dallas will win the super bowl

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 07:28 PM

So let me get this straight.

You think Dallas is >64% to go to the Super Bowl, and less than 25% to win that game.

Wow.

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Tampa has no chance. . .

outdrawed,

Who is your favorite NFL team?

I don't think dallas will win 50% of the time, i think its almost a sure thing, what is going to stop them. . .Noone in the NFC has beat them yet, and probaly won't either. . .

LOL, there's a reason no team has gone undefeated in over 30 years. Hell, my Pats may be the best team in NFL history, and they got about as lucky as hell to beat a very bad Baltimore team. Maybe this concept eludes you, but teams do, on occasion, lose to teams that are worse than them.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 07:34 PM

Get these %'s out of your head, and just focus. . . The NFC is trash there is only one good established team (THE COWBOYS) and another team that is hot and on the rise (THE VIKINGS) . . . It seems like it is going to be the cowboys and the Pats are going to the super bowl, and NE has already proven their passing attack is too much for the cowboys secondary.

Who is your favorite team?

**outdrawed** · 12-07-07, 07:37 PM

"Get these %'s out of your head"

This tells me all I need to know. You cannot possibly be remotely serious about sports betting or having a debate about sports betting without having some possible knowledge about statistics. I'm done with this argument because I'm pretty sure I'd have better success explaining probability to a wall.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 07:38 PM

Dude, are you kidding me?. . . telling me teams lose to worser teams, do u think im an idiot. . . .First of you are a pats fan and you know the only team close to competition is the cowboys and you don't want them in that game. . . Don't insult with that b/s post ,trying to talk down to me. Anybody can beat anybody of course! . . . MY PREDICTION IS SIMPLY THE COWBOYS WILL GO TO THE SUPER BOWL , AND I BET MOST WOULD AGREE WITH ME , AND -180 IS NOT A HORRIBLE PRICE.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 07:40 PM

MATH is a big part of my sports betting kid, however i do not live and die soley by it! . . I factor in everything, using all the information at hand to make the best decision. . .

**roasthawg** · 12-07-07, 08:18 PM

vikes bet might as well be +1,000,000,000...they aren't goin to the sb. dalllas is about fifty fifty imo, as we all know gb is the competition...i'll probably ride with gb and the points again in the rematch but we'll cross that bridge when the time comes.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-07-07, 08:21 PM

I think Dallas has just a good chance ,if not more, than the pats do, because of the tougher comp in the AFC mostly. . .

**idontlikerocks** · 12-07-07, 09:12 PM

i think if the vikes win it you will be +2600? don't u lose the dallas bet if the vikes win? anyhows i'm certain you would be happy with that result. it sounds like fun which is what most of what we do should be about...... maybe better odds on dallas parleying the money lines in the playoffs

**slacker00** · 12-08-07, 03:14 AM

I like the Cowboys & Vikings to have a decent shot on the NFC side, but not at these odds. Don't sleep on the Bucs, Hawks, Pack, etc. They've got as good a shot as the boys when taken together.

**LT Profits** · 12-08-07, 04:26 AM

Originally posted by outdrawed

Not a fan of Cowboys bet. You really think they're >64% to go to the SB? That's >80% per game.

I think they are, yes. There isn't a team close to them in the NFC, as I think the Packers are a fraud and the rest of the conference sucks.

**LT Profits** · 12-08-07, 04:28 AM

Oh and I also agree with Louisvillekid1 that the Vikings are the best of the longshots.

**outdrawed** · 12-08-07, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

MATH is a big part of my sports betting kid, however i do not live and die soley by it! . . I factor in everything, using all the information at hand to make the best decision. . .

If this was true you wouldn't have said something like "stop using percentages" or whatever it was you said. The way to do this is simple. Do you think Dallas is >80% to win each game before the SB. If yes, then go nuts at -180, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong there.

And if you think Dallas is >80% to win those games, but won't bet them to win the SB at 5-1, then you obviously think they are less than 25% to win assuming they get to that game. Once again, if you think they are less than 25%, then stay off of Dallas, but as before, I'm pretty sure you're wrong.

**hanco21** · 12-09-07, 06:34 AM

Odds definitely aren't in your favor. You are leaving out one team that is starting to round into form and they could beat Dallas.

Seattle Seahawks has a good chance as any to win the NFC

**budhaful** · 12-09-07, 11:45 AM

Not exactly easy money, but it could happen!

WVU vs Pitt .. i got it at +3200 ML a couple weeks ago. I was very pleased...

Take a shot, Columbus did and look where we are now.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-09-07, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by hanco21

Odds definitely aren't in your favor. You are leaving out one team that is starting to round into form and they could beat Dallas.

Seattle Seahawks has a good chance as any to win the NFC

I think seattle has beat one winning team all season. . . What makes you make this comment? . . . They are been very unimpressive this year. . . They take advantage of a weak division which basically give them an auto 4-6 wins every year. . . They can't go into lambeau or texas and win. . .

If they have as good a chance as any play them at +840 . . .

**slacker00** · 12-09-07, 12:27 PM

I see Seahawks at +1015 right now at the Greek. I really hate the Seahawks' chances, but that's not bad value.

I also see value in the Redskins +8050 at the Greek. Granted, the 'skins have a lot of work just to get into the playoffs, but once in, I don't question the toughness of this team even with a backup QB.

In both of these situations, I like the savvy of veteran coaches that know how to win in the playoffs. The bad thing, they'll both be going through the wildcard round and probably into two very tough road games in Dallas & GB. But, we've seen with the Colts & Steelers that it can be done. I don't think GB & Dallas are unbeatable even at home. If I can get big enough odds with some of these "scrappy" teams, I'll bite.

**MJFtheGenius** · 12-09-07, 12:40 PM

How bout Dem Cowboys!!!!!!!!!!!