Anyone ever win a weather bet ?

[BetWeather]

Anyone ever win a weather bet ?
If so what game(s) , conditions and how much ?

What about taking the under for the first half if it is raining ?

[Thomas]

betweather I'm from Canada and we have govt sports lotteries up here, trouble is we have to parlay at least two outcomes (parlay and no limit). They set their lines on Wednesday and they stay there no matter what. A couple of years ago when one of those nasty storms/cold fronts hit the upper mid east my local and I took out a very large sum for games in Chicago and NE where the totals had dropped 5 or 6 points in both games while they didn't move here. We won and I won't bore you with a dollar amount on a public forum but we cleaned up huge. I've also won money playing against Tampa in under 40 degree weather (something like that) over the years with some great success.

I don't put much stock in rain or snow or even cold for that matter but big winds will win you money almost every time, add rain snow or cold to that and you'll find many good spots to wager on during the course of the year. Over reacting to the wrong weather has sunk many novice punters in my observation.

[Outhouse Tim]

A play with value

Not snow, but WIND can really affect games, along with cold conditions.

A money maker with a sample size of usually about 10 per season is to say there will be NO SCORE in the final two minutes of the 1st half. The price you usually get is about +160 to +180. Winning close to 50% of these plays is a nice profit, but overall they've been hitting nearly 65%.

[Nomocino]

yea I had 150 on Buffalo Cleveland under December 16,2007 game ended Browns 8 Bills 0. I live near Rochester a little over an hour from Buffalo and the wind was howling at 40 mph with white out conditions I never had a worry. would have been the most boring game ever had I night made a little $

[kroyrunner89]

Week 14 last year I had one, I can't get a link to the post to work for some reason but if you feel like scrolling through my posts you can see what I factored into my decision to make my weather play. It was Week 14, the Thursday night game

[frankzig]

i would like to see some info if anybody has any

[icancount2one]

WeatherBet, your posts are getting a bit one-dimensional, but I am interested in seeing your wind-tracking software.

[BetWeather]

Yeah I know, but...

WeatherBet, your posts are getting a bit one-dimensional, but I am interested in seeing your wind-tracking software.

Its hard to get anyone here to actually speak intelligently on the subject.
Was beginning to think that no one hear had a clue...

I will put it on the web when it's ready and annouce it here.
Basically stadium orientation vs wind direction....
With a doppler screen for every game.

It's about half done now.

[Flying Dutchman]

See my post in another thread. I refute just about every point BW made there.

...BTW, I've been working weather for over 10 years now and I've a WX db 4 times larger than his.

[BetWeather]

Flying DutchMan.... you stated that I "...try to pull my assumptions from Pros into college. Well, the
DutchWoman has access to both, Pros from 1994 (a little longer than your db by twice) and college and they are different."

First you know your wrong on nearly every point, but I guess you enjoy being contrary!

And the size of your database has nothing to do with it... were talking about the size
of your common sense.

For example...
1. College QB's are rookies compared to NFL.
2. Many with small hands (no making it in the pros)
3. Field conditions are much worse at college stadiums...
4. Many more college Stadiums clustered in the northeast. (more bad weather)

It does not take a rocket science degree to see that... weather effects
college games more than NFL games... for all these reasons !!!

Why don't you just quit posting in this thread because...
I dare you to try refute even one of these obvious facts

But again... I am glad to hear that Flying DutchMan will be taking the over when it's blowing 20mph cross-winds and raining 30 minutes before a game !

[Flying Dutchman]

See my response in the other thread, doormat.

Since you do not even know what's in the other guy's db, this is a waste of time.

I'm done.

[BetWeather]

Angry Mob... Just knew you were going to say that.

[BetWeather]

betweather I'm from Canada and we have govt sports lotteries up here, trouble is we have to parlay at least two outcomes (parlay and no limit). They set their lines on Wednesday and they stay there no matter what. A couple of years ago when one of those nasty storms/cold fronts hit the upper mid east my local and I took out a very large sum for games in Chicago and NE where the totals had dropped 5 or 6 points in both games while they didn't move here. We won and I won't bore you with a dollar amount on a public forum but we cleaned up huge. I've also won money playing against Tampa in under 40 degree weather (something like that) over the years with some great success.

I don't put much stock in rain or snow or even cold for that matter but big winds will win you money almost every time, add rain snow or cold to that and you'll find many good spots to wager on during the course of the year. Over reacting to the wrong weather has sunk many novice punters in my observation.

Great post Thomas!
Working on software that will track wind in real time using the "personal weather station network" (updated every 5 minutes on average...)

One big problem (or advantage... because books have same problem) is that airports WX stations only report once per hour at :52 or 54 minutes after the hour. Books and average joe has to rely on 1 hour old airport info...

Also thinking about a "boots on the ground" progarm where we will call the closest three Seven Elevens or minute mart/gas stations at stadiums where the probabilites are very high... right before the game and ask...

Is it really raining... how hard ? (windy?)
Should be able to make all the phone calls for 5 or 6 highly probable games before
the sports books get their "current weather" from the airport stations.
Say 15 minutes before game instead of 6 to 8 minutes before game.

If sports books even bother to drop the line for weather they do it after they get their 1 hour airport current conditions report.

Another idea is to bet at 4:01 am (when local NWS zone forecasts come out for
the day. If NWS forecast at 4am says high winds and 4 inches of snow accumulation today... lay bets at 4:02 am... before books can change line to reflect bad weather.

[BetWeather]

Remeber the lines...?

yea I had 150 on Buffalo Cleveland under December 16,2007 game ended Browns 8 Bills 0. I live near Rochester a little over an hour from Buffalo and the wind was howling at 40 mph with white out conditions I never had a worry. would have been the most boring game ever had I night made a little $

Nomocino do you remember the opening and closing lines ?
Interested in how much it dropped.....

Bet it was no more than 3,4,5 points ?

Nice score... sounds like you should have bet the farm !

If not...
Maybe the FlyingDutchman has the opening and closing lines for that game... ???

[Flying Dutchman]

Read my response in the other thread, weather tout.

[BetWeather]

Weather VS The Line Study

i would like to see some info if anybody has any

I have searched the web and only found one place that has weather vs line data.
It is a free Fantasy football site...

http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

Apparently an SBR poster named Flying Dutchman has a huge database of
WX vs the line... but he is not sharing that info as far as I know.

[Nomocino]

I dont now for sure but believe I had the under at 34, I know it was a rocking chair for me. you are probably correct in saying it did not change more then 5 . and yes I was wishing I had bet more