NFL MVP futures, any value?

[slacker00]

I was looking over some NFL MVP futures, just for fun. I know it's a meaningless award and a bit of a popularity contest, but the player still has to perform to get into the discussion. Post your thoughts.

I'll post a poll, to let you guys vote. I got these odds from TheGreek.

[slacker00]

Looks like I listed Chris Johnson twice, by mistake. I can't edit the poll, so I guess just ignore the second one. I'll be more careful next time.

In the poll, I was limited to 21 choices. So, I left the biggest longshots off the list. Here's the full list if anyone wants to consider some of the longshots.

4501 Aaron Rodgers +1200
4502 Adrian Peterson +1800
4503 Andre Johnson +3000
4505 Brandon Marshall +5000
4506 Brett Favre +1500
4507 Calvin Johnson +6000
4508 Carson Palmer +3000
4509 Chad Henne +3000
4510 Chris Johnson +1000
4511 Darrelle Revis +2500
4512 DeAngelo Williams +2500
4513 Donovan McNabb +1800
4514 Drew Brees +500
4515 Eli Manning +2000
4516 Frank Gore +2000
4518 Joe Flacco +2500
4520 Larry Fitzgerald +4000
4521 Mark Sanchez +1800
4522 Matt Ryan +1800
4523 Matt Schaub +1800
4524 Matthew Stafford +6000
4525 Maurice Jones Drew +1500
4526 Michael Turner +2800
4528 Peyton Manning +500
4529 Phillip Rivers +1500
4530 Randy Moss +3000
4533 Tom Brady +800
4534 Tony Romo +1500
4537 Field +650


I voted "no play" because I can't pick a winner at this point. I don't have a good philosophy for picking MVPs this early. I tried to go by process of elimination, only QBs and RBS have won the award for almost the last 30 years. QBs win much more often than RBs. Winners also tend to be players who have a decent pedigree of past success, one notable exception was Kurt Warner's first MVP. So this eliminates virtually everyone except a handful of QBs: Brees, Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Favre, Rivers, Romo. I guess Brees seems like the easy pick because he should continue to put up big numbers and maybe give him his "due", finally. I just hate betting that heavy chalk.

[brooks85]

value in palmer

[BarkingToad]

Voters will always look for an excuse to give it to Mr October Peyton Manning.

[jhack704]

matt ryan or mcnabb! or even favre is he plays like last yr he will win it

[MRcool2035]

Peyton Back 2 Back Mvp easy money lol

[pinnacle212]

Seriously, I think it will be A Rodgers, If he is good like he was last year and if he beats the Vikings at least once. Think about it, if he had beat Favre twice instead of the other way around. It would have been overwhelming outcry for A Rodge

[pinnacle212]

Joe Flacco has crazy stupid value. Chime in on this one.

[pinnacle212]

Can anybody figure out the odds on a Joe Flacco A-Rodge, Joe Flacco play

[jlgarciaiii22]

Tony Romo +1500 looks like a winner to me

[BarkingToad]

Joe Flacco has crazy stupid value. Chime in on this one.

I have no strong opinion one way or the other, but why did Ravens sign Marc Bulger who is horrible to a $4 million contract as a back up, while I believe Flacco makes less? Good luck on your bet, Flacco now has Boldin to throw to with a nice running game and good defense. Could happen, worth a shot at 25/1 I guess.

[slacker00]

Joe Flacco has crazy stupid value. Chime in on this one.

As a player, I like Joe Flacco as well as Matt Ryan, but they're both a good year or two away from serious consideration. Flacco has only thrown 35 TDs in his whole career, he needs to do that in one season just to get into the conversation this year. I compare Favre's first MVP, which was in his 5th season, the previous season he got passed over with 33 TDs, but it got him into the conversation. Nobody gets the MVP in their first MVP-calibre season. It usually goes to someone that's overdue, not to the rising star.

In some ways, the MVP award requires two MVP calibre seasons. For me it makes sense to only include players that were in the conversation this year and are able to match or exceed their performance going into next season. Last year Brees, Rivers and Favre were the only other players receiving votes. It's probably worth mentioning Chris Johnson & Adrian Peterson, simply because they are the two most dominate RBs in the game right now and both got some votes the year previous.

If you're looking for a longshot, guys like Romo, Rivers & Rodgers are a little more appealing to me because they stand to put up huge numbers with a good core of talent around them. Plus, they've been putting up 30 TD type of seasons already, so they've demonstrated that they can get to that level. These guys are more longshots, though. The true favorites are guys like Brees, Peyton, Favre, Brady.

[DaProfessor23]

I dont like brady's chances with no welker. not implieng that he wont have a good season without him , but it will hurt his mvp chances , valuable target for him . peyton always a option , but if i had to lay down some money as of right now i would go with joe flacco , aaron rogers , and brees as a backup . because i think those 3 will have biggest season . flacco now has boldin which is a huge edition to a soft wr core that he already proved he could throw into . and plus i believe ray rice will be feared by defense so should open up some room for flacco to do work. aaron rogers i think will have big season . and brees would realy just be a backup for me at +500 , because the way i see it is after those 2 1000+ qb's . brees has the best chance to win with his squad .

[john2153]

Rodgers at +1200!! Great value.

[GunShard]

I'm split between Brees and Farve. I believe Brees deserved MVP last season, so I think he will get the MVP this season.

[netinfo]

Coming off a SB win, I'm not sure if Brees can go back again to the SB, but I think it is time for him to be recognized with an MVP award. He's turned that organization around, and made the Saints into an elite NFC team. If he performs like he did last year, and his team posts a similar winning record, then I say vote him in as the MVP.

netinfo

[netinfo]

As far as value on Brees, the current +500 is not as good as I would like it to be, but it is still quite good plus money, imo, on an Elite QB. As far as which play is more valuable, or what has more value, I would say that Rodgers at +1200, Rivers at +1500, and Romo at +1500 are nice value-rich picks that have a reasonably good chance of winning.

netinfo

[DaProfessor23]

Rodgers at +1200!! Great value.

lol very true

[slacker00]

I'm split between Brees and Farve. I believe Brees deserved MVP last season, so I think he will get the MVP this season.

This is pretty much my thinking too. MVP is more of a sentimental award and it goes to Brees as long as he performs like he did last year, for the most part. Obviously if Peyton or Brady hang another 50 TD season, then it gets interesting. But I think people are sick of the bucket head and weasel face getting all the accolades.

Favre might get downgraded further if you believe in the "splitting votes" theory, with Adrian Peterson potentially stealing some of Favre's votes since one will feed the success of the other.

[netinfo]

slacker00,

Thanks for the point!

netinfo

[msec512]

Aaron Rodgers and Favre are both good value bets

[brooks85]

i think the value is in palmer now. He has the same chance as most of the top QBs and a better chance than most of the other players because he is a QB. That offense is loaded, especially when this TO deal goes down. With number he is sitting at right now, its worth it. If this loaded offense performs along with the defense, carson could easily pass 30tds and have a possible comeback angle for the mvp.


I took him at +3500

I like other guys to win too, but +600 and +1200 is just silly.

[dakota_nyg]

Rodgers could be the pick.

[Nick.Papagiorgio]

rodgers, maybe a sleeper