Can someone explains middles to me ? With reference to totals bets and weather ?

[BetWeather]

Here is a scenario.

Sample Game - College or NFL
-------------------------------
- Two passing teams
- Opening Line 46
- Saturday Night 45

- Sunday weather is shite and the real line should
be around 34. Books lower line to 42.

If the true expected outcome now went down to 34 in
this example why would they leave the line at 42 ?

Some said it is because of their exposure to middles !
Sorry to be so dense but I guess I don't understand middles?
or "the books exposure" to middles ?

If they don't drop the line to the true expected outcome of
34 in this case.... can't they be taken to the cleaners ?

[kroyrunner89]

The way I understand middles would be say you bet over 42 and under 46, and then the game ended 24-21. That would be hitting the middle because both of your bets won. As to why the books respond one way or another to weather I can't really speak, sometimes you do see that total drop 6+ points by kickoff, other times you don't. I think they let the public betting fuel what they do with the line but that's more speculation on my part

[msec512]

It's much easier to find middles outside of the casinos. "Local" guys adjust their lines based on their play. But, with that there is always a chance of not collecting. And don't tell them you are playing the middle between them and other bookie. You only lose the juice if the middle doesn't hit. Good luck!

[Winnipeg Jets]

i tried it last night on the cfl game. had a teaser over 45...i took the 2nd half under 26.5. lost it but still made some profit.

[SparJMU]

I actually have a ton of experience with this, so if you want to learn more shoot me a message. Here is a brief response to the question:

Attempting to hit middling can be a risky adventure, and completely worthless as you might end up wasting a ton of money on juice. I wouldn't recommend it if you have a small bankroll, or if you are new to betting.

I would recommend it if you have experience gauging line movement, you have a big bankroll, and you have a Matchbook account.

Example: my typical bet is between $100 and $500 if I am simply taking the side on a game. So let's say that I have handicapped a Sunday NFL game and I am very confident in the Under 42 and I want to bet $500 on the Under. I am also confident that this line is going to fall from 42 to something like 39, or maybe even 38. Right off the bat you can see how risky this is because how often is a line even going to fall that much and how often can you predict it? Anyway, what I will do in this situation is bet $1,050 to win $1,000 on the under 42 at a reduced juice book. Then hopefully this line falls and right before kickoff it is at 39. At that point using matchbook you can bet over 39 at -105, or maybe even over 40 at +105.

So here is the outcome if I bet Over 40 at +105 on Matchbook:

Under 40 - I won the $1,000 on Book A and lose $500 on Matchbook, netting $500 on my prediction of Under.

40 - I win the entire $1,000 from Book A, and push on Matchbook, netting a gain of $1,000.

41 - I win both bets, making a gain of $1,550.

42 - I win $550 on Matchbook, push on Book A, netting a gain of $550.

Over 42 - I lose $1,050 on Book A, and win $550 on Matchbook, netting a loss of $500.

So in the end I successfully bet $500 on the Under 42, which is the side I wanted, but at the same time I gave myself a few chances at middling the line and making up to $1,550 without any additional risk.

Hopefully you can see ththe big picture here and see the limited benefit and potential downsides. If you aren't predicting line movement you are in trouble. If you are paying too much juice you will slowly throw away a ton of money. And hitting the actual middle numbers is extremely rare. It is time consuming and often a waste of time. But occasionally it's great.

[GunShard]

Now I know what a middle is.

[BetWeather]

So when is the right time to "hedge" or shade your bet by putting some on the other side?
When the line changes substantially? or...

[BetWeather]

As to why the books respond one way or another to weather I can't really speak, sometimes you do see that total drop 6+ points by kickoff, other times you don't. I think they let the public betting fuel what they do with the line but that's more speculation on my part

So you if you think the public causes the line drop... (not reality as the cause...)
Right before the game you could take the over!

But don't the books brag about stable lines and hardly move the line down
just for a few smart under weather bettors?

[SparJMU]

The line will move if their is a ton of action on one side (more often from sharp bettors than the public) and the line will move when new information comes to light (injuries, weather, etc.)

[SportNut]

Betting middle never a good idea to me...just like chasing...