Monday Night O/U what do you got?

jrcaces · 11-19-07, 12:57 PM

Tenn. ML

patsfan2727 · 11-19-07, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by justdoingit

Looking at going over tonight before we get a big rush which i think might be going up got it now at 38 1/2. The broncos have gone over 6 out of 7 times this year while the Titans have gone under 5 out of 7 times seems like a stay away type of bet but had a good weekend and would like to have a play tonight what do you think i got it at

Denver 21 Titans 28

It seems O/U winning betting usually goes against your intuition on nationally televised games. for example, NE @ INDY O/U was 56 b/c both teams are "offensive juggernauts". Similarly, Bal/Pit O/U was low, 36 or 38 I believe, because both teams are "defensive powerhouses". Both bets went against public opinion of the teams. The bottom line is, most football games will end somewhere between 40 and 55, indicating it is wise to take the over if its in the 30 range, and under if its in the 55+ range. Unless both offenses SUCK (SF @ SEA Under 37.5)

In this game, I like the under for the following reasons:

1) Denver has a hard time putting up points, settling for FG's more often than TD's

2) If TEN has no LenDale White, its all going to rest on VY's shoulders, and he has not been doing too well lately putting up big QB #'s....(not that he ever did)

3) Both teams seem to be playing more conservatively as of late

Thoughts?

justdoingit · 11-19-07, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

It seems O/U winning betting usually goes against your intuition on nationally televised games. for example, NE @ INDY O/U was 56 b/c both teams are "offensive juggernauts". Similarly, Bal/Pit O/U was low, 36 or 38 I believe, because both teams are "defensive powerhouses". Both bets went against public opinion of the teams. The bottom line is, most football games will end somewhere between 40 and 55, indicating it is wise to take the over if its in the 30 range, and under if its in the 55+ range. Unless both offenses SUCK (SF @ SEA Under 37.5)

In this game, I like the under for the following reasons:

1) Denver has a hard time putting up points, settling for FG's more often than TD's

2) If TEN has no LenDale White, its all going to rest on VY's shoulders, and he has not been doing too well lately putting up big QB #'s....(not that he ever did)

3) Both teams seem to be playing more conservatively as of late

Thoughts?

I agree and thanks for the post i think that is right it has been sad this year watching denver get stuck at the goal line what happend to the running attack at denver you used to be able put a road cone back there and he would have a 1000 yard rusher so i will probably stay away i hate going with unders since you have to worry about it all game love overs like last night with the Pats i had to worry for about a half so i guess ill just stay away

patsfan2727 · 11-19-07, 02:46 PM

an idea

Originally posted by justdoingit

I agree and thanks for the post i think that is right it has been sad this year watching denver get stuck at the goal line what happend to the running attack at denver you used to be able put a road cone back there and he would have a 1000 yard rusher so i will probably stay away i hate going with unders since you have to worry about it all game love overs like last night with the Pats i had to worry for about a half so i guess ill just stay away

If you think it will be a close game (7 pts or less deciding the victory) and are leaning towards a side on the O/U, why not go with a 3 way 7 point teaser (1.4:1 odds)

DEN + 6 DEN +6
TEN +8 OR TEN +8
Over 31 Under 45

I know it can be a risky bet, but it kind of hedges both sides in a way. Of course you get screwed if either team wins by 10, but hey, it was just an idea. It is hard to get + odds on betting any one game without parlaying a side with an O/U. I did it last week by taking SEA-10 and UNDER 37.5 (2.6:1 odds) but it is very difficult. There are other options to hedge your bets and still come out with decent odds:
If you feel more confident about the OVER:
1 unit

en -1 1 unit: Ten-1
Over 38 Over 38
If you feel more confident about DEN:
1 unit

EN -1 1 unit

en -1
Over 38 Under 38

For these parlays listed above, assuming they pay 2.6:1, if EITHER one hits, you start with 2 units, and end up with 3.6 units. Then again if the pick you felt confident about misses, you are down 2 units. Yeah, I'm a math teacher.

dwaechte · 11-19-07, 04:00 PM

I don't normally do quarter or half bets, but I like the over 7 for the first quarter. I think atleast a TD early on is fairly likely.

beaneaters · 11-19-07, 05:21 PM

I like the under as well. I picked Tennessee to win, and if they do it will be because of their defence. Maybe 20-16 Titans?
Of course, I'm only 13-18 on NFL over/unders this season, so what do I know?