Pats -14.5 @ Bills

[NEP Dynasty]

Now, I hate betting on a big favorite like this. But guys, how does Buffalo score more than 10 points in this game. They just struggled to put up 13 against MIAMI...


You know that coming off of the bye week, the Pats will have plenty of tricks up their sleeve. I see them putting up 34+ here, and really believe the pats -14.5 deserves a play here.

Prediction: Pats 35 Buffalo 9

[louis]

Where are you getting -14.5? Sbrlines is showing it, but then the book seems to have a higher number. If you really think the line should be -26 (Pats 35 Buff 9) then you should be buying a pleaser, taking NE -21 and getting paid 7 to 1. Of course you have to choose another team. Maybe the Colts? They are also double digit favs and pretty certain to win.

[SBR Lou]

Louis I detect a low level of sarcasm in your suggesting Pats backers to throw NE in a pleaser with the Colts. I personally would take -14 or better, anyone who does so is expecting a pretty sizable beating. That doesn't mean that person would blindly follow any number though or start pleasing the games.

[louis]

Crazyl, he thinks the line should be -26. Why bet -15/-15.5 the current line when he can bet -21 along with another team and get paid 6 to 1 at WSEX, or 5 Dimes. The Colts is just a suggestion, he could even go with a college team. There is no sarcasm. He seems to like big favs playing mediocre and unpopular teams.

I am also betting against the Colts by the way, and the line of +14.5 is good with me. No reason to start another thread, the crowd here seems to like winning teams; I like betting double digit dogs, especially at home.

I'm in the minority here, outnumbered about 20 to 1. Noone should feel bad about my posts.

In your case you think the line should be -14. I absolutely do not think you should take a pleaser. In your case I would try to get the line below -14. "14" is a key number. About the point that starters may be taken out of the game, since the Pats goal is to win, not to beat some spread. If you can't get -14 by the end of the week, perhaps taking a halftime, or quarter spread or money line can get the equivalent deal.

By the way, any bet or side is a good one, depending on the spread. Even I would take NE if the price were right. There are some people here who pick the team most likely to win, and don't care much about the spread.

I think your bet would have a good chance of winning, but not as good as those taking Buffalo +15 or more, per my other thread.

This is only 1 of about 20 bets I make each week. I mainly bet college and hockey, because I find NFL lines to usually be pretty accurate and not beatable in the long run.