Careful with the Vikings

Doc JS · 11-07-07, 11:44 AM

The Vikes historically play the Pack tough. I expect GB to win the game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikes cover. In fact, I've got them in a 3 team 10 point teaser this weekend.

swampdog · 11-07-07, 11:46 AM

I beg to differ!

Originally posted by KidDynamite

Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson destroyed CHI with 200+ yards. The next week he got the ball 12 times and only had 60 yards against DAL. Then only managed 70 yards against PHI. However, he walked on water against SD. The last time MIN played GB he had 100+.

Childress played it up this week on the radio pretending the game plan was Peterson running for 300. He now says MIN has a "kick ass offense." Well that offense can't do anything other than have Peterson run it, and GB nows that. Brooks Bollinger is the likely starter with newly signed Koy Detmer as a backup. GB will stuff the box and force MIN to pass. GB will be passing all day against the MIN secondary, so MIN will most likely be in catch up mode. MIN needs another monster day from Peterson early to have a chance. They have to score early and not get down by more than one score. If GB gets up early, the MIN run game disappears and the "kick ass offense" reverts back to the "practice team offense." I don't know how many miracles Purple Jesus has left in him. I'm expecting a small miracle on Sunday like 175+ and 2TD, but don't think that comes with a victory.

Nope, I'm not buying what you're saying and I'll tell you why...

I can see Min staying with their run game until the second half and still some. I'd also look for Minn to do more play-action to counter the run blitzing of GB. I'm not saying Minn will win, but I don't see them loosing by a blowout.

GB's best chance is the control the clock by running or short passes and keep the ball away from Peterson. However, BF isn't a short pass QB and will try to sling the ball down field after banging their sorry run game for 3 quarters.

laxdjock · 11-07-07, 03:23 PM

I think it opened at +6 and went down to +5.5. I think the game will end right around 4-5, but the Pack pull it out.

prop · 11-08-07, 06:25 AM

I don't understand the line really, expected to see Packers -8
Packers match up very well in this one.

laxdjock · 11-08-07, 11:41 AM

I'm keeping an eye on it, GB is looking better and better. it was 5.5 but back to 6 at my book. If it hits 5.5 again i'm on it. I still may lay a unit at -6....I just don't see MIN keeping up with the GB passing offense. MIN may try and grind down the clock, but Favre has shown an ability to score quickly....and throwing against the worst pass defense in the league (giving up 290+ yds per game), is a nasty combination.

GB doesn't run well, and MIN doesn't give up the run, but they have Favre....so as long as he doesn't give up multiple picks, I think GB wins going away. Watch the GB front 4 eat up MIN. Their one end (Chapman? I forget) is tied for the lead in sacks and is OWNING the OTs this year. Peterson blows at blocking, so MIN will have to keep a TE in or another back (I don't think chip blocking will cut it), and that will cut down on offensive options. I think Hawk will have a big game (having to worry less about the TE and releasing RBs)

cwsulzba · 11-08-07, 02:14 PM

What if Peterson dominates again?

TexansFan · 11-08-07, 02:36 PM

Minny's offensive line is what allows Peterson to run free on teams. GB will not stop him from running. Every team that plays Minny knows what they are going to do on offense and they still can't stop the run.

I got Minny +6.5 in a close game.

laxdjock · 11-08-07, 03:10 PM

Here are his attempts and YPG, with the DEF ranking, their average YPG, differences, and TDs.

ATL: 19 103 (23rd....123)....-20....0
DET: 20 66 (12th.....101)....-35....0
KC: 25 102 (14th.....105)....- 3....1
GB: 12 112 (8th........94)....+18....0
CHI: 20 224 (26th....131)....+93....3
DAL: 12 63 (5th.......85)....-22.....1
PHI: 20 70 (7th......93).....-23.....0
SD: 30 296 (22nd....125)..+171....3

Against the DEF Average
3 of his 8 games he rushed for more than the DEF avg.
5 of his 8 games he did NOT rush for more than the DEF avg.

Against the Top 4 (5th, 7th, 8th, 12th) / Bottom 4 (14th, 22nd, 23rd, 26th) Rush Defenses Played
Against the top 4 Rush DEF he's gone: 66, 112, 63, 70......77.75/YPG (1 TD)
Against the lower 4 Rush DEF he's gone: 103, 102, 224, 296....181.25/PYG (7 TDs)

He has 2 outliers, but for the most part he plays up to the defense, and takes advantage of weak defenses. People are ignoring the sub-par Rush DEF of the teams MIN has played. He went for 112 and 0 TDs against GB.

----

I just laid 2.2 units on -6 GB. I should have jumped at -5.5, but I thought it'd slip down...not go the other way. Most everyone has it at -6 now.

laxdjock · 11-11-07, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by cwsulzba

What if Peterson dominates again?

He's on pace for 90 yds, 0 TDs....hopefully that holds.

KidDynamite · 11-11-07, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by swampdog

Nope, I'm not buying what you're saying and I'll tell you why...

I can see Min staying with their run game until the second half and still some. I'd also look for Minn to do more play-action to counter the run blitzing of GB. I'm not saying Minn will win, but I don't see them loosing by a blowout.

GB's best chance is the control the clock by running or short passes and keep the ball away from Peterson. However, BF isn't a short pass QB and will try to sling the ball down field after banging their sorry run game for 3 quarters.

Hate to say I told you so. Favre has been eating the MN D alive. And wouldn't you know the GB run game has shown up.

laxdjock · 11-11-07, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by laxdjock

I'm keeping an eye on it, GB is looking better and better. it was 5.5 but back to 6 at my book. If it hits 5.5 again i'm on it. I still may lay a unit at -6....I just don't see MIN keeping up with the GB passing offense. MIN may try and grind down the clock, but Favre has shown an ability to score quickly....and throwing against the worst pass defense in the league (giving up 290+ yds per game), is a nasty combination.

GB doesn't run well, and MIN doesn't give up the run, but they have Favre....so as long as he doesn't give up multiple picks, I think GB wins going away. Watch the GB front 4 eat up MIN. Their one end (Chapman? I forget) is tied for the lead in sacks and is OWNING the OTs this year. Peterson blows at blocking, so MIN will have to keep a TE in or another back (I don't think chip blocking will cut it), and that will cut down on offensive options. I think Hawk will have a big game (having to worry less about the TE and releasing RBs)

Now if only my N.O. pick worked out as well as this.