laxdjock's NFL Picks (11/11 - 11/12)

laxdjock · 11-08-07, 04:55 PM

I just laid 2.2 units on -6 GB. I should have jumped at -5.5, but I thought it'd slip down...not go the other way. Most everyone has it at -6 now.

Here is my rationale (from another thread) for betting against A. Peterson.......

Here are his attempts and YPG, with the DEF ranking, their average YPG, differences, and TDs.

ATL: 19 103 (23rd....123)....-20....0
DET: 20 66 (12th.....101)....-35....0
KC: 25 102 (14th.....105)....- 3....1
GB: 12 112 (8th........94)....+18....0
CHI: 20 224 (26th....131)....+93....3
DAL: 12 63 (5th.......85)....-22.....1
PHI: 20 70 (7th......93).....-23.....0
SD: 30 296 (22nd....125)..+171....3

Against the DEF Average
3 of his 8 games he rushed for more than the DEF avg.
5 of his 8 games he did NOT rush for more than the DEF avg.

Against the Top 4 (5th, 7th, 8th, 12th) Rush Defenses Played
66yds, 112yds, 63yds, 70yds......77.75/YPG (1 TD)

Against the Bottom 4 (14th, 22nd, 23rd, 26th) Rush Defenses Played
103yds, 102yds, 224yds, 296yds....181.25/PYG (7 TDs)

He has 2 outliers, but for the most part he plays up to the defense, and takes advantage of weak defenses. People are ignoring the sub-par Rush DEF of the teams MIN has played. He went for 112 and 0 TDs against GB, and I'm looking for him to have about the same. If GB can get out quick, then he'll be less of an option, and they will have to rely on their passing offense (30th, 151.5 YPG).

SBR Lou · 11-08-07, 06:05 PM

I like Indy & Detroit also. I'd pick Buffalo to win but it won't be something I play.

laxdjock · 11-11-07, 01:56 PM

So far GB is stepping up.....glad I put in a late 2.2 unit bet @ -6 GB.

laxdjock · 11-11-07, 04:04 PM

Okay....good win by GB, though I lost my teaser on a horrid game by N.O.

Added
1.1 -3 INDY (1st half)
2.2 pk DET (1st half)
0.5 +2.5 NYG

laxdjock · 11-11-07, 05:44 PM

Damn.....that was rough in DET.