Patriots At Dolphins ...............lock.thats Right,i Said Lock!!!!

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  • Savant
    SBR Sharp
    • 07-19-07
    • 349

    #106
    the only times i have seen bradley actually win is when he doesn't post it as a lock.
    The only lock is = fading all his so called lock picks
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    • betplom
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 09-20-06
      • 13444

      #107
      Originally posted by louis
      I like the strategy of betting crap teams, double digit dogs, against elite undefended teams. In this case it didn't work, but if you shop for numbers the strategy will work over the long run. Washington is now +16.5 vs. New England, I'll take Washington. They are playing in New England, but Washington is not a bad team. The spreads in the New England games are reaching ridiculous levels. Thanks to their blow out of Miami, a 0-5 team, we get a great spread taking Washington (vs. New England) a team that is pretty good. By the way, my pick of Washington is not a "lock". It is just my opnion that if the two teams played 100 times, washington would usually have no trouble winning with a 16.5 spread.
      Louis your post was well written, makes sense and the logic is appealing. It will never be popular here, why? because too many idjits like to post in a manner that is much less appealing and get all the attention.
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      • Skidcom
        SBR MVP
        • 11-17-06
        • 1796

        #108
        At least the MIA teaser came through....personally getting tired of taking NE unders but the system is making me do it!
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        • dwaechte
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-27-07
          • 5481

          #109
          Originally posted by louis
          I like the strategy of betting crap teams, double digit dogs, against elite undefended teams. In this case it didn't work, but if you shop for numbers the strategy will work over the long run. Washington is now +16.5 vs. New England, I'll take Washington. They are playing in New England, but Washington is not a bad team. The spreads in the New England games are reaching ridiculous levels. Thanks to their blow out of Miami, a 0-5 team, we get a great spread taking Washington (vs. New England) a team that is pretty good. By the way, my pick of Washington is not a "lock". It is just my opnion that if the two teams played 100 times, washington would usually have no trouble winning with a 16.5 spread.

          Though every week I have no problem with those who want to take all those points, especially when it's a decent team like Washington, there's no way I'm going to go against this New England team until they fail to cover one. I'm a big believer in riding hot teams and fading cold ones for good stretches, and it's worked well this year with both NE and SF. With New England being better than every other team, it enables them to have a good hold on every game(7-10 pt lead in the 4th). Throw in the fact that they're adding on meaningless touchdowns at the end of every game and are showing no signs of not continuing that strategy, and I just find it hard to bet against them.
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