Moderate Favorites off of a Bye

EGGY6199 · 10-03-07, 03:57 AM

Okay which games is that this week?

rm18 · 10-03-07, 04:02 AM

Titans, essentially Jags, Saints Skins are also off a bye but I guess not favored by enough.

SBR Lou · 10-03-07, 12:04 PM

I'm leaning toward the Jags already.

LT Profits · 10-03-07, 01:43 PM

Well, Jags don't qualify unless they hit 3.

regularguy · 10-03-07, 02:36 PM

I've been looking at the Titans (-8.5 or so, in Nevada) against the Falcons. I think this could be a big win for the Titans.

Vince Young is a competitor. His QB rating has been improving steadily. He has only thrown 2 interceptions this season. His confidence is growing. I say hold on to your hat.

The Titans have two good wins (at Jacksonville and at New Orleans). They barely lost to the Colts at home (20-22). They are just those two points from being undefeated. They are now fairly healthy (as far as I know - ???), and coming off a break. They want to get their first win at home. I believe they will get it convincingly.

The Falcons ... well ... maybe they're a little better than some people have expected. But not much. They will not win this one.

By the way, think about these teams' divisions. The AFC South is tough. Any team in the AFC South could probably win the NFC South.

Here's the meat of it for me, though. I tend to look alot at the lines of scrimmage. I think the Titans have a significant advantage on both sides of the ball. For example (and, by the way, this is a simple check that I make in nearly every game), look at yards per run for and yards per run against: Tennessee comes in at 4.5 for and 3.3 against (pretty good numbers); Atlanta comes in almost the mirror opposite with 3.5 for and 4.3 against (not terrible, especially the run defense, but inferior to the Titans' numbers). Look for the Titans -- including their quarterback -- to run on the Falcons, and to dominate time of possession, and probably the game.

A 10 to 20 point win for the Titans would not surprise me one bit. I will likely put some sort of play on the Titans this week. At least on a teaser card.